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Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

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Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#101
post #55
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just so we're on the same page, do you understand the logic behind not paying extortionists? The "later" doesn't come, and the payment only makes them better at extorting you, and draws in more people to try the same. You typically won't get a better opportunity. If you come up with a rationalization for how you absolutely must defer the reckoning today , why won't you come up with one tomorrow as well?

The US government could have done something about the banks after having bailed them out without wreaking havoc, but they didn't. Not because the government didn't have the power to, but because it apparently didn't have the will. Simply letting the US banking industry collapse and take the country with it as a power play of refusal to give in to "extortion" would have been insane.

Less than 10 years out and people have already forgotten their history. That's so disheartening....

First, Lehman Brothers was allowed to collapse. That was huge and directly contradicts the revisionist history we hear about today. But it immediately became apparent that the system couldn't sustain another collapse like that.

Second, nonetheless Washington Mutual was allowed to collapse a week later.

Third, the Feds forced Bank of America to eat Merrill Lynch with patently illegal threats. But banks like operating in regulatory gray areas, and at the time were willing to take their own medicine.

Fourth, earlier that year Bank of America bought Countrywide, and since then regulators have been particularly brutal to BofA regarding Countrywide's practices prior to the acquisition.

Wells Fargo ate Wachovia. That was a good deal for Wells, but point being the Feds didn't prop up Wachovia, they just made sure it didn't crash and burn.

Citibank had to sell Bear Stearns at a loss (I think; feel free to correct me) with JP Morgan picking up substantial risk. Again, while not quite the same kind of shot-gun weeding as with Merrill Lynch, doubtless the Feds were pushy.

Fifth, while AIG wasn't allowed to collapse, the government took receivership and were relatively brutal to investors. There are still ongoing 5th Amendment Takings claims, and while morally it's repugnant the legal arguments are pretty good. Point being, it's another example where the govt didn't shirk their responsibilities in the way people claim.

Lots of other banks went under with investors losing money. You can't paint the entire banking industry as getting off scot-free just because some of the biggest (and most nimble) banks came out comparatively unscathed. As big as those banks are, the U.S. is unique in that it has a huge number of retail banks compared to any other country, and plenty of them and their investors got their comeuppance. (That history stems from the national bank debates in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, and ultimately President Andrew Jackson's resolution disfavoring a national bank. That system is still largely in place, even after the establishment of the Federal Reserve, though in the past decade it's been quickly consolidating, evolving, and becoming more tightly bound by Federal frameworks.)

There's alot more history to the financial crisis. I'm not saying things were fair, or that the banks were punished enough. My point is just that people very well understood the moral hazard at the time. Regulators did an arguably _reasonable_ job at mitigating that hazard as much as possible, even in hindsight.

Retail and transactional banking is a very integral part of modern Western civilization. The system is well over 1,000 years old (in a nearly identical form from a commercial and legal perspective) and predates all modern governments. It's organic rules are complex, opaque, and don't employ the same organizational models as modern systems like democracy, corporations, etc. You can't analyze the banking system so simplistically.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#102
post #94
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course the food shortages affect everyone, but cperciva is right, the government is handing out bags with food in the poorest sectors of the population. When these people are faced with the food shortage, and then they receive a handout from the government, they are being controlled and manipulated. The government has stated before that these handouts (called CLAPS) are not for the middle class (which has been opp…

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something.

I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10 hours and the food ran out. Plus the National Guard and the military are getting paid by black market gangs to let them cut in line and people notice that.

For example there have been long lines in every bakery to buy french bread, which is very common to eat here. I just don't eat it. Same thing with arepas, which is one of our main dishes. Since you can't get the flour (called Harina Pan) without waiting over 12 hours in line I just don't eat it. I've got some I bought from one of the black market guys some time ago but we are running out soon.

More and more stuff is getting more scarce. Rice disappeared some time ago, milk shows up every now and then. The food that you can get is extremely expensive. For example, ketchup had been missing for some time now. Suddenly it's everywhere. It used to cost around Bs.200 and now it costs Bs. 1500.

I wouldn't mind going without certain goods, but now with a baby I'm constantly worried. Diapers and formula are almost non-existent. We stocked up last year on diapers when they could still be found and the baby is doing OK right now because my wife managed to breastfeed exclusively. But not everyone is so lucky.

I don't really know how restaurants manage, I've got a friend that has a small fast food place and I know he pays some guys from a bakery for bread, and meat is already expensive so you can get that pretty easily. But I know a hotel nearby that had to remove arepas from the breakfast menu (which was unthinkable here) because they cannot find the flour and I guess they don't want to pay black market rates.

This is the kind of thing that happens when you have a currency exchange control and price controls. Stuff gets locked in an artificial price for too long and the producers just give up. The government tried to regulate the price of eggs. Next day, you could not find a single egg anywhere. The flour used to make arepas was regulated at an absurd price, something like Bs.30. Not even the packaging costs that.

One common misconception though, is that we cannot find any food. The basic things like rice, flour, bread, milk, etc are what's hard to find. If you've got the money and you want to go to a restaurant and get a lobster you can. But the basic stuff we used to eat every day for a reasonable price cannot be bought without going to the lines or paying black market prices. Medicines are hard to find for everyone.

Recently there was quite a commotion on the social networks because some dumbass from Europe came here to make a video for some pro-govt guys and said everything was peachy because he went to the liquor stores and found champagne, went to a gourmet market and saw foie gras, lobster and jamon serrano. But he forgot to mention he probably could not find a square of toilet paper to wipe his ass :)

Sorry for the huge wall of text and rambling. It's really hard to put my thoughts in order when I try to explain this stuff, especially in a foreign language.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cultural/Male honor is huge in LatAm

It's pretty silly to assume "male honor" would be the deciding factor in a country's politics.

Why? More than two millenia of that sort of thing preceeds the previous five decades of post-nuclear-age politics, no?

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#104
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something. I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10…

Thank you for the inside view. Sorry you're going through that.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#105
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something. I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10…

This is one of the most insightful, coherent and relevant piece of writing that I have recently read on the ground reality in Venezuela.

I found this particularly illuminating: One common misconception though, is that we cannot find any food. The basic things like rice, flour, bread, milk, etc are what's hard to find. If you've got the money and you want to go to a restaurant and get a lobster you can.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#106
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something. I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10…

I know reality you are describing very well. This was Poland under Russian occupation in the seventies and eighties:

http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/3/5275/z5275403Q,Puste-polki-w-sklepi...

http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/e6/f6/f2/z15922918Q,Tak-wygladaly-skl...

http://i.iplsc.com/puste-polki-w-sklepie-miesnym-typowy-wido...

http://chrisniedenthal.com/public/upload/works/big/54bd379cc...

http://d.polskatimes.pl/k/r/11/a2/d3/4dca472ebf5c0_p.jpg

http://i.wp.pl/a/f/jpeg/26325/kolejka.jpeg

http://i.wp.pl/a/f/png/26326/kolejka_przed_sklepe_73024g_126...

http://static.prsa.pl/images/e1379cd8-917c-44e5-acea-6898b64...

toilet paper queue http://kk24.pl/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/foto-Bogusław-Rogo...

Vinegar was the only product available in most butcher/meat shops. Food, goods and petrol were rationed. https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pl&u=https:/... You needed special cards to be allowed to buy, not that shops actually had anything to sell.

There were very few options:

-Pewex/Baltona, special shops accepting western currency only. Meant for elites and select few allowed to travel abroad (musicians, sailors, pilots, stewards), and to drain currency from black market (prostitution, smuggling).

-black market and connections. Empty shop shelves, but there was always something under the counter for the right people.

-barter, inflation made native currency meaningless, but you could exchange your petrol cards for some meat etc.

-farming family. Every holiday ended with cars full of eggs, meat, milk, honey and spirits travelling back home.

Do you have family in rural parts of the country? This is the cheapest option for surviving such nightmare :(

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#107
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something. I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10…

> he forgot to mention he probably could not find a square of toilet paper to wipe his ass :)

I must've been lucky, when I was in Caracas, my airbnb had a bidet. no tp needed. :-)

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#108
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty silly to assume "male honor" would be the deciding factor in a country's politics.

Why? More than two millenia of that sort of thing preceeds the previous five decades of post-nuclear-age politics, no?

Because once you're corrupt, there is no honor.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#109
post #12
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After nationalization Venezuela told all PDVSA workers that they either had to be loyal to Chavez or quit. Many of the best left, knowing they could take positions with the supermajors or service contractors in other countries. PDVSA was left with a hodgepodge of lackeys and hacks who don't know what they're doing. That problem is compounded by the fact that Venezuelan crude is a pain in the ass to deal with. Some of…

I believe you are making my point. Venezuela's future will depend on and require foreign investments and expertise. Burning that bridge (or not burning it) is a calculated risk.

Alas, it looks like the Chavez and Maduro governments are not really capable of calculating risks, or even understanding rational processes. They are completely ideological short-term opportunists.

Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why

#110
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to hear that. What has the experience been like for you to buy food? Are you stuck in the lines as well? How do restaurants obtain raw ingredients with which to cook?

Well, I've basically just been eating what I can find the easiest. I don't really go to the lines. I cannot afford to waste a whole day in a line where I don't even know what they are going to hand out or if I'm even going to be able to buy something. I just came back from a friends place and he told me he almost got stuck in a dangerous looting situation because people got pissed because they've been in line for 10…

Thank you for sharing this. If it were up to me I'd open the boarder and let you all come to the US. Probably you just want your own country to work right though.
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