Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iceland didn't default. They let their commercial banks die without intervention from the government. Also known as what the US Treasury should have done in 2008. If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately.
> If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately. No, if its too big to fail, it must not be allowed to fail -- but also must be as expeditiously as possible broken up into units which are not too big to fail.
Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
71–80 of 142 posts
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#72The second "conspiracy theory" explanation presented in the article seems the simplest and most plausible: Close associates of the administration are major holders of the country’s bonds and...the government fears it’d lose their much-needed support if the payments stopped coming in. Efforts to obtain comment from government press officials on this and other aspects of the story were unsuccessful. Either that, or deb…
Just as a first-order guess of your second half, what you describe sounds highly illegal. The first part makes more sense - and it's not a conspiracy theory - they want to keep access to bond markets.
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iceland didn't default. They let their commercial banks die without intervention from the government. Also known as what the US Treasury should have done in 2008. If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately.
> If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately. No, if its too big to fail, it must not be allowed to fail -- but also must be as expeditiously as possible broken up into units which are not too big to fail.
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately. No, if its too big to fail, it must not be allowed to fail -- but also must be as expeditiously as possible broken up into units which are not too big to fail.
Kind of like gradually splitting up your giant monster truck Java thing running all your endpoints into a variety of microservices.
That's a perfectly apt analogy. "Too big to fail = must be killed immediately" is like saying if you have an Java monolith that is a SPOF for your entire business, you must immediately blow up the server running it to protect yourself from the danger of it failing later...
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#75When a nation defaults it becomes the IMF/World Bank's bitch. "Austerity" is imposed, well-connected foreign interests get to run roughshod, and that nation is systematically (oh I mean coincidentally) looted. If you ever needed proof that these loans were designed to accomplish precisely that (a way for lenders to extract wealth from those nations), look no further than the fact that here you have an article that se…
What could we evil rich white people loot from Venezuela at this point?
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
But Venezuela has already seized and nationalized foreign-owned assets. Surely that burnt plenty of bridges? I'm more likely to believe that influential Venezuelans are exposed to the current bond market and are seeking to delay the reckoning.
Do you have any more information on this? I'm pretty out of the loop on the Venezuela situation and would like to know more, but don't even know where to begin.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/hugo...
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If something is too big to fail - it must be killed immediately. No, if its too big to fail, it must not be allowed to fail -- but also must be as expeditiously as possible broken up into units which are not too big to fail.
I am afraid you are wrong. Any entity strong enough to blackmail you into bailing it out, is strong enough to demand for the bailout to be no strings attached.
"Too big to fail" -- if they genuinely are [0] -- banks are not in a position to blackmail anyone into bailing them out; the danger of them failing is indirect effects of that failure, not actions the bank triggers if it is not bailed out -- its not blackmail. While policymakers have a strong public-interest incentive to prevent them from failing (that's literally what "too big to fail" describes), they have a similar public interest incentive to take steps to make sure that they aren't in the position to choose between similar failures and costly bailouts in the future -- and, quite often, the way that manifests is through conditions on the bailout which can extend as far as government taking control of the institution it is bailing out.
This is born out by the past history of US government bailouts of institutions that were deemed to critical to the economy to fail, many of which had management conditions attached, and some of which extended to government taking significant control of the entity for some period, and those who previously controlled the entity losing out -- the entity (itself a legal fiction created by government) was preserved, the actual people the entity belonged to were not always bailed out.
There are times when bailouts had no or weak conditions, which may be a policy failure, but clearly does not demonstrate that imposing conditions on bailouts is impossible.
[0] "Too big to fail" can also be an pretext for policy-maker favors to people with whom they have personal, social-class, or other connections, rather than a genuine fact, in which case its still not blackmail, but a whole different problem.
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#78There's another possibility which wasn't mentioned in the article: Maybe the government is quite happy with the food shortages. They have used control of the food supply to reward their supporters and to punish their opponents; this gives them tremendous power, and why should they give up that power just for the sake of a few million starving citizens?
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/14/venezuela-viol...
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting that you would think Maduro and his Government have any honor. How could they possibly have any face left in the International world? Communist/Socialist Governments typically use such financial vehicles among many others to systematically remove and transfer some/most of their countries wealth into their own/friends coffers through various arrangements with financial institutions et al all the time. Just…
Cultural/Male honor is huge in LatAm
Re: Venezuela Refuses to Default, and Few People Seem to Understand Why
#80"Caracas fears a default could open up claims to PdVSA assets, such as rigs, refineries and oil shipments. One target by creditors could be the company’s Houston-based subsidiary, Citgo Petroleum Corp., which has three U.S. refineries that receive hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan oil a day."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-decaying-venezuela-debts-get-...