For different versions of this argument see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect . Bostrom said: "A lot of cutting edge AI has filtered into general applications, often without being called AI because once something becomes useful enough and common enough it's not labelled AI anymore". Finally, the problem with all these articles is the lack of precise definition for the terminology involved (it reminds me of deb…
Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
131–140 of 180 posts
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#132Tim Urban points out in his AI article that it might be dangerous to expect that the AI that we know now would still be the same AI we will have in the very near future http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolu... "So as AI zooms upward in intelligence toward us, we’ll see it as simply becoming smarter, for an animal. Then, when it hits the lowest capacity of humanity—Nick Bostrom uses the term “th…
I'm not afraid of AI because intelligence has diminishing returns. 1000 times smarter entity might be only 2 or 3 times better at predicting the future than human is. So 1000 times smarter superhuman AI maybe could tell weather two weeks ahead instead of one. And the physical world is inherently like weather, chaotic in mathematical sense. Our upper hand against even very dumb animals doesn't come from our intelligen…
There seem to be vast differences in ability between humans, despite all of us having 99.99% the same DNA and same brain structure. Who knows how far beyond humans a superintelligent AI could be.
>AI would have to build its own, which we won't let it (at least initially) or steal ours in which having ability to see just a bit farther in the future doesn't help that much with.
Who says we need to let it? It just needs to be better than the best human hackers, and it will be able to compromise a huge amount of our infrastructure in a short time. Possibly without us noticing. Even intelligent groups of humans have been able to achieve terrifying things like stuxnet.
Then if all else fails, it can just persuade people. It's smarter than the best human sociopaths and politicians after all. And it could bribe people by earning vast amounts of money on the stock market, or other areas where it has a comparative advantage over humans. That would buy it a huge amount of power to start building independent infrastructure.
But the scariest outcome is that it doesn't bother with robot armies at all. If it's so intelligent, it could design working nanotech. The only reason we don't have it is because it's so hard to engineer. So much complexity and moving parts, is very hard for humans to wrap their brains around.
Human brains weren't evolved to be engineers after all, it's a lucky coincidence we are capable of it at all. An AI brain optimized for this task should far exceed humans. The same way chess computers far exceed human chessmasters.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This is a road to madness How so? > If every time you wouldn't understand something you would just plunge into the material and get familiarized you would do nothing else for the rest of your life That's how I've been spending a significant part of my out-of-work time, for most of my adult life. Is there anything wrong with being a curiosity-driven person?
There's no way you could actually do this. Going an hour on a normal day you'd have a life time of material to learn so I agree yes it is madness. You can't learn thousands of years of engineering, math, science, etc.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#134As a curious software engineer, I have a basic familiarity on where heating oil comes from (I remember my first sci-pop book with a section on basics of oil processing), where nuts are grown, basics of food industry supply chains, and every other example covered. My knowledge might be rudimentary and without much detail, but I try to cover all bases, and when I discover some area of human knowledge I genuinely know n…
Yeah, I thought that was all kind of funny too. I'm a voracious reader, and have been curious about just about all parts of science and technology at some point. So I too knew at least the basics for everything he mentioned. Magically plop me in a stone-age agrarian society, and we'd be back to at least an 18th-century level of technology in a couple decades.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not afraid of AI because intelligence has diminishing returns. 1000 times smarter entity might be only 2 or 3 times better at predicting the future than human is. So 1000 times smarter superhuman AI maybe could tell weather two weeks ahead instead of one. And the physical world is inherently like weather, chaotic in mathematical sense. Our upper hand against even very dumb animals doesn't come from our intelligen…
I don't think that is true, just from observing the difference between humans. Really intelligent mathematicians can do work that a weaker mathematician would never accomplish if they spent their whole life on it. And the average person could probably not even understand it given years. There seem to be vast differences in ability between humans, despite all of us having 99.99% the same DNA and same brain structure.…
I recommend Culture novels written by Iain M. Banks. There are vastly powerful AIs but they spend as much time as they can afford in "Infinite Fun Space" which is basically math taken to insane depths.
I know that there's a saying that all math is eventually applied but I think this saying is popular because it is sort of paradoxical that some of the most bizarre math eventually found their application. What I think is for math just a bit deeper than what human can grasp, "eventually" quickly becomes larger than the age of universe.
About stealing... Hackers are successful not because they are ungodly smart. They are successful because they have the will to look for and exploit vulnerabilities. Intelligence, again, doesn't help all that much. I don't think people who wrote stuxnet were able to do this because they were of superior intelligence. They were just usually intelligent people (which means barely more intelligent than average human) that were sufficiently motivated by huge budget and interesting problems.
Super-intelligence won't help you with stock market because it's purely random game. You can see it in results of active management funds. HFT gives impression of algorithms beating people at trading but the thing they use to extract the value is not intelligence, it's speed. If you can trade faster you can beat slower guys because you are playing slightly different random game than they do. If you compare one HFT with other HFT then you are back to random results. So AI won't have upper hand on stock market unless we allow it to trade faster then our non-conscious software.
In theory I could image AI persuading people to give it what it wants. Because people are stupid and have flaws that are recurrent and easily exploitable. But again, I don't think intelligence would make such a huge difference. 1000 times more intelligent conmen could be just twice as effective because of chaotic nature of how human flaws interact.
> If it's so intelligent, it could design working nanotech. The only reason we don't have it is because it's so hard to engineer. So much complexity and moving parts,
It's hard to engineer because it's so damn small, not because it's complex. To build nanotech you'll need to build tools to build tools to build tools to build nanotech. You could do all that but even if you are 1000 times smarter, reality has a speed limit. You can't take a shovel of sand from the beach and build CPU, no matter how intelligent you are. You have to build fab first.
> Human brains weren't evolved to be engineers after all, it's a lucky coincidence we are capable of it at all. An AI brain optimized for this task should far exceed humans. The same way chess computers far exceed human chessmasters.
Yes. But it can exceed humans at consciousness, charity and compassion even faster because those are purely intellectual things, like chess while engineering is limited by moving atoms and energy around.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#136Echoes of 'I, Pencil' in there: http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl1.html Some more background about the brain shrinkage referred to in the article: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-have-our-brain...
What Brian Eno is missing, is that global markets are created by billions of human minds on the basis of a constant process of trial-and-error (to the extents government allows them to try and fail). It's not just error tolerant. It's constantly making profit by improving and correcting errors. And it's been around for 1000s of years.
Whereas computers have been around for less than a century and are programmed by a few people and AI may not have with "common sense" or error tolerance. To deliver yourself to that seems unacceptable to me.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#137Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, I thought that was all kind of funny too. I'm a voracious reader, and have been curious about just about all parts of science and technology at some point. So I too knew at least the basics for everything he mentioned. Magically plop me in a stone-age agrarian society, and we'd be back to at least an 18th-century level of technology in a couple decades.
There were some science fiction stories (I forgot their names and authors) in which time travelers actually encounter a lot of practical difficulties in past societies, because the people they encounter don't believe them or don't readily see the benefits of their suggestions. So maybe you need to add "a stone-age agrarian society that's eager to take advantage of my knowledge", since that part can't necessarily be t…
Some simple stuff like crop rotation, composing, irrigation (if needed in that climate), should be some easy wins though.
And then it would be on to making iron, glass and other basic building materials.
It is more likely that I'd just die of something stupid though, like bears.
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#139Echoes of 'I, Pencil' in there: http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl1.html Some more background about the brain shrinkage referred to in the article: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-have-our-brain...
Yep, "I Pencil" came to my mind as well. But opaqueness is the only thing that AI shares with global market (or catallaxy as Austrians would call it). What Brian Eno is missing, is that global markets are created by billions of human minds on the basis of a constant process of trial-and-error (to the extents government allows them to try and fail). It's not just error tolerant. It's constantly making profit by improv…
Even so it serves as a very graphic reminder of how interconnected all of humanity and industry is at this point.
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/inventors/page/p/pencil.sht...
Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, I am not that good at manually building hardware. Learning how it works is another thing, though.
Be careful assuming you understand how something works without having built at least a prototype.