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Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

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Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#91

For those interested in what people who actually know whereof they speak have to say on the topic of technological unemployment, and the history of economic discussion of the topic, a solid outline of discussions from Ricardo, Mill, McCollough, and Neisser, is included here: https://econospeak.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-technology-trap-...

> "For those interested in what people who actually know whereof they speak have to say on the topic" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority I've no problem with learning from others, but pointing to a select handful of people who 'actually know whereof they speak' is not going to help explore the field fully.

Pointing to expertise is not argument from authority.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "invisible hand" metaphor used by Adam Smith is not an explanatory mechanism , and if anything is an admission that the specific mechanism isn't understood . In use at the time and earlier, it had the sense of "the invisible hand of Providence" (or God). Though Smith, as Hume, was almost certainly what we'd now call an athiest. He used the term three times, in three different books: The Theory of Moral Sentiments…

Also, Adam Smith's example of the invisible hand was as a mechanism to prevent so-called free trade, and raise protectionist tariffs. The people you mentioned have twisted Smith's words into the exact opposite meaning - they say Smith's invisible hand sweeps away protectionist tariffs and allows international free trade. He said the complete opposite of what they say he said.

Thanks, I was going to mention the context of use but needed to go back to confirm what the usage was.

I am aware that his one use of "free market" was in a passage describing protectionist trade practices favouring the woolens manufacture industry in England: keeping raw wool import costs low and preventing import of finished goods, thereby maximising the revenue-cost differential, which is to say, profits.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#93

Brian Eno is a skilled musician. He's a lousy economic, systems, and AI theorist. The Edge is revealing itself far more to be a forum in which people of provenance hold forth on that which they've no particular qualifications or grounds to discuss (something which never happens elsewhere on the Internet, of course ). Complex, highly-interdependent systems exibit fragility, nonlinear transitions, and multiple optima,…

This is one of the most elitist comments I've read on HN.

What are your special qualifications that allow you to say who is and who is not qualified to comment on a topical issue?

I'm guessing by your comment stating that he is a skilled musician that you aren't actually familiar with Brian Eno at all. He's an unskilled musician, that's by his own admission. He's not technically proficient on any instrument. He's quite the technologist though.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#94
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Indeed. I fear AI that stops being dependent on people. Such systems are still far off, I believe. But I don't see why we couldn't intentionally or by accident create a new form of life that could out-compete us, and in the end make us extinct. Since the line between AI realized in a machine and systems in general is kind of thin and blurry, one could argue that the economy is about to become such a system. If auto…

Absolutely. Just as we are (in my opinion) a result of emergent systems (evolution) - the systems we build should be expected to have emergent properties. And there are other systems we are beholden to (and impact) such as the biosphere and the climate. Criticism of capitalism is often misunderstood, or misconstrued as "conspiracy theory" - while what it often is, is just pointing out the most likely and apparent eme…

Personally I think "emergent" != "emergent". Most of the systems we build are pretty dumb - except our socioeconomic ones, which gain complexity by being formed by aggregating over billions of sentient beings.

Now I'm having some trouble sorting out the categories in my head. On the one hand, the "emergence" you described in your comment is garden variety feedback loops. Something very simple in principle - and being a part of a feedback system literally means 'being beholden and impacting it'.

On the other hand, it really feels like search for intelligence is in a big part just tweaking one's abstractions. You can see the market as "just" a complex set of feedback loops between individuals and groups, or hop one abstraction level above and realize that we're all components of a feedback system that's optimizing for something we as individuals have close to zero control over. A system that's bossing us all around. We try to understand it, so that we can say that e.g. prices of product X dropped because people in company Y invented some innovative process. But if one digs deeper one can sometimes notice that if it wasn't company Y then it would be a company Z; if it wasn't an innovative process then it would be an innovative business model (or a scam), or a substitute product X1. All because the "market pressures" made it happen. If you step another abstraction layer up, you can just treat the market as a being and it's not a big of a stretch.

So at what point one should stop playing with abstractions? Or, maybe, what do we mean by "intelligence"? If we're looking for a different-but-mostly-similar being to talk to, then searching for it by doing abstraction dance is not a good way. But if by "intelligence" one means a sufficiently smart optimizer, one that can make decisions to reach its own goals, and that in principle could coerce us to do its bidding - if one means that, then one may realize this has already happened.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#95

> I read once that human brains began shrinking about 10 thousand years ago and are now as much as 15% smaller than they were then. Timeline's a bit off, but the science is still a shocker: > Over the past 20,000 years, the average volume of the human male brain has decreased from 1,500 cubic centimeters to 1,350 cc, losing a chunk the size of a tennis ball. The female brain has shrunk by about the same proportion. h…

There has been incredibly strong selection pressure for babies being able to get down the birth canal - the death rate in child birth pre-modern times was something like 10%. The human brain is about as big as you can make it and still reproduce. What we would expect when you have strong selection for two competing forces (smaller head size and greater intelligence) is for the brain to shrink in size and become more asymmetrical - basically you get rid of system redundancy by having each side of the brain specialise in one thing. This is exactly what we have seen in humans.

One of the more interesting aspects of recent human evolution is how much has occurred in the the last 10,000 years. Evolutionary speed is basically proportional to the population size and the massive expansion that agriculture allowed has caused the rate of evolution in humans to increase around 1000 fold over the neolithic rate.

One other factor looking at eurasian brain size is gene competition resulting from the neanderthal / ancient african hybridisation event that occurred around 50,000 years ago. When you have a hybridisation event the genes from the two populations often don’t get along too well and it takes a while for selection to remove the incompatibilities. I would not be surprised if the genes controlling brains size in neanderthals and ancient africans were not very compatible (there is no reason that they should be given selection for brain size increase took place in parallel in both species) and that hybridisation resulted in an brain size excessively large given the birth constraints. It would be really great to know the change in childbirth death rate over the last 50,000 years.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "invisible hand" metaphor used by Adam Smith is not an explanatory mechanism , and if anything is an admission that the specific mechanism isn't understood . In use at the time and earlier, it had the sense of "the invisible hand of Providence" (or God). Though Smith, as Hume, was almost certainly what we'd now call an athiest. He used the term three times, in three different books: The Theory of Moral Sentiments…

Also, Adam Smith's example of the invisible hand was as a mechanism to prevent so-called free trade, and raise protectionist tariffs. The people you mentioned have twisted Smith's words into the exact opposite meaning - they say Smith's invisible hand sweeps away protectionist tariffs and allows international free trade. He said the complete opposite of what they say he said.

Here's the beginning of that section, which generally inveighs against protectionist retraints on trade, most especially the "Corn Laws" -- limitations on grain imports to England:

By restraining, either by high duties or by absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition of importing either live cattle or salt provisions from foreign countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the monopoly of the home market for butcher's meat. The high duties upon the importation of corn, which in times of moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advantage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to the woollen manufacturers. The silk manufacture, though altogether employed upon foreign materials, has lately obtained the same advantage. The linen manufacture has not yet obtained it, but is making great strides towards it. Many other sorts of manufacturers have, in the same manner, obtained in Great Britain, either altogether or very nearly, a monopoly against their countrymen. The variety of goods of which the importation into Great Britain is prohibited, either absolutely, or under certain circumstances, greatly exceeds what can easily be suspected by those who are not well acquainted with the laws of the customs.

That this monopoly of the home market frequently gives great encouragement to that particular species of industry which enjoys it, and frequently turns towards that employment a greater share of both the labour and stock of the society than would otherwise have gone to it, cannot be doubted. But whether it tends either to increase the general industry of the society, or to give it the most advantageous direction, is not, perhaps, altogether so evident.

The restraint of government intervention (here as so often elsewhere noted in Wealth) is by government, yes, but quite clearly on behalf of specific powerful commercial interests. It's that* power Smith is hoping to curb -- directly then a restraint on excessive power accumulation by means of commerce, trade, and manufacture.

https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations/Book_...

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#97
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue that Global Civilization is nothing but living!

I read a comment on HN a while back arguing that today's companies are essentially human-powered AIs. It made me think quite a lot -- large companies especially take a lifeform of their own. They tend to mostly care for themselves. Actions are taken "for the company" without any one person being actively aware of why. Higher-ups have some form of backdoor access to the direction the company takes; a symbiotic relatio…

There was an interesting TED talk a while ago about this idea applied to cities, how they 'live' and communicate and grow but how we have never really seen one die. Less about AI I suppose and more about new life.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#98

What people are worried about is artificial systems that are of higher capability than all or the vast majority of humans. If the principal agent problem is solved by those that create them and they can be cheaply reproduced, then the value of human wages goes below subsistence. This likely isn't a big problem as economic growth rates would be so unimaginably high in this scenario (with doubling times on the order of…

>And as most people have at least some capital What? Most people in most Western countries are net-debtors. They literally own negative capital.

What specific statistic are you basing that on?

Even in the US where unsecured personal debt is practically a badge of honor, more than 50% of households still have a net worth.

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#99
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a comment on HN a while back arguing that today's companies are essentially human-powered AIs. It made me think quite a lot -- large companies especially take a lifeform of their own. They tend to mostly care for themselves. Actions are taken "for the company" without any one person being actively aware of why. Higher-ups have some form of backdoor access to the direction the company takes; a symbiotic relatio…

Many larger systems are more than the sum of their parts. Enough that you could consider the grouping it's own entity. Ant hills are the canonical example because individual ants are recognizable as 'animals', but the function of an anthill clearly relies on a complex interaction between more simple ants. Just as we are made of tiny organisms, bigger systems could be considered to be made of us.

Hofstadter wrote a nice piece on how an ant colony could be thought to be an entity in itself. My favourite quote pasted from an online source:

Anteater: "I reject holism. I challenge you to tell me, for instance, how a holistic description of an ant colony sheds any more light on it than is shed by a description of the ants inside it, and their roles, and their, interrelationships. Any holistic explanation of an ant colony will inevitably fall far short of explaining where the consciousness experienced by an ant colony arises from."

Re: Just A New Fractal Detail In The Big Picture (2015)

#100
This is a cute but ultimately wrong argument. It's like saying we live with a black hole because there's one in the center of our galaxy.

Yes you could stretch the term of AI to say that a large system made up of people and simple machines is some form of AI, but that's stretching it to the point of becoming meaningless.

When people talk about real Artificial Intelligence they usually mean general AI, or at least a specific AI that is capable of human-like decision making. Not Computer Chess and not an auto-stop in a filling pump.

Stretching AI to the point of ludicrousness like this seems to serve only the purpose of trying to shut down discussion around human-like AI. Which is not a noble goal.

Discussing human-like AI is important, especially before we figure it out. It would have been nice if people in the early 1900s had spent time thinking about the consequences of putting so much carbon into the atmosphere before they did it. Let's not be another generation of people who could have had a lot more forethought than they did.

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