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How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

nytimes.com

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Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#71

Post by fweespeech »

SonicSoul wrote: post #31
downandout wrote: post #22

For those of you that don't know, the primary character in this piece, James Grosjean, isn't just any advantage player, he is the advantage player. He wrote what is often referred to as the Bible of advantage play - Beyond Counting - and its sequel, Exhibit CAA: Beyond Counting . Both of these books are incredibly hard to find, and when they do come up for sale, often sell for thousands of dollars. Here's a current l…

I know it might be judgmental and possibly hypocritical, but I can't help but think that kind of intellect and education is wasted on trying to beat a casino. If money is the end goal, wouldn't there be a bigger opportunity in pursuing investment strategy ideas (i.e. market inefficiencies), or working on making some process more efficient that could disrupt some industry (i.e. spam/phishing detection, or deep learnin…

> If money is the end goal, wouldn't there be a bigger opportunity in pursuing investment strategy ideas (i.e. market inefficiencies), or working on making some process more efficient that could disrupt some industry (i.e. spam/phishing detection, or deep learning) and have better chance of long term gains. I'd think casino strategies once discovered can be mitigated over time so all that hard work will payoff temporarily?

Tbh, I'm pretty sure poker is easier for the individual and investing strategies require the support of an institution willing to stake you 8 figure sums to do so.

The other part is, there is no hiring barrier to winning at poker. Some people are going to be antisocial enough (or come from a background that is disadvantaged) to be unable to gain the kind of access/support that would permit you to play for long term stakes. (i.e. Substantial improvements in spam/phishing detection is a multiyear effort and ultimately an ongoing battle. I'm pretty sure poker is fundamentally quicker than that.)

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#72

Post by splonk »

defen wrote: post #60
splonk wrote: post #45

I can expand a bit on how advantage play can work for the hold'em games against the house. I'm sure Grosjean and other professionals at this sort of thing have more sophisticated tactics. Fun fact - last I looked maybe 6-7 years ago, his book was selling for low 4 figures on the secondary market. That's how much advantage players can value an unknown tactic. About 10 years ago casinos started offering various hold'em…

> When all these games first came out, casinos had to train dealers to do this, many of whom had never played poker. I think I calculated that I'd need to see a mistake rate of something like 1/600 to make the game profitable right out of the gate, ignoring any other advantages, and I was seeing 2-3 mistakes/hr (out of maybe 30-100 hands/hr). What kind of mistakes are you talking about here? Like, the dealer has a fu…

Things like the board being a 5-flush and not realizing that it's a push (or pushing instead of winning because they don't realize that they have a card in hand that plays), or the board being two pair that counterfeits your pair, or the board pairing and counterfeiting your kicker. Occasionally flat out missing things like having a straight.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#73

Post by joosters »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #54
MOARDONGZPLZ wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are some examples where it wouldn't mean bad faith, and I'm pretty sure the majority of the time a bad check would NOT indicate bad faith: I wrote a check, but I was changing direct deposit accounts at my employer to a new account. I transposed my account number, my paycheck didn't get deposited, my check bounced. Oops! I completely forgot that I wrote a check earlier in the week. I write the second check after…

Most of those do constitute "not knowing how to add up a list of numbers". Checking your balance before writing a check is not sufficient, as the examples demonstrate. This is almost a perfect example of 'bad faith' e.g. the check writer isn't diligently accounting for all of their expenses. What you 'mean' to do doesn't matter. Writing more checks than there are deposits to cover, is bad faith.

What you 'mean' is the whole point of why it's not bad faith, you have it completely the wrong way round. Bad faith implies that you had an intent not to pay, whereas all the previous examples were of someone writing cheques that they intended to pay.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#74

Post by splonk »

SonicSoul wrote: post #31
downandout wrote: post #22

For those of you that don't know, the primary character in this piece, James Grosjean, isn't just any advantage player, he is the advantage player. He wrote what is often referred to as the Bible of advantage play - Beyond Counting - and its sequel, Exhibit CAA: Beyond Counting . Both of these books are incredibly hard to find, and when they do come up for sale, often sell for thousands of dollars. Here's a current l…

I know it might be judgmental and possibly hypocritical, but I can't help but think that kind of intellect and education is wasted on trying to beat a casino. If money is the end goal, wouldn't there be a bigger opportunity in pursuing investment strategy ideas (i.e. market inefficiencies), or working on making some process more efficient that could disrupt some industry (i.e. spam/phishing detection, or deep learnin…

For many people who do this, money is not the end goal. It's just a way of keeping score.

There's another subset of people who do this who simply enjoy playing games (and poking holes in them). There's not much money in, e.g., writing bots in attempts to find optimal play for board games, but people do it anyways.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#75

Post by splonk »

llamataboot wrote: post #57
simonswords82 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the best description of playing poker professionally that I ever heard was that it was like playing a game of chess for $1, then flipping a coin for $100. In the long run that chess game is the only thing that matters, but in the short run those coin flips can be brutal Great quote! What books or online resources would you recommend for getting better at poker? Not looking to play professional but do enjoy the game…

It's been a long time now since I've studied intensely (haven't played much poker outside of the occasional home game with friends for 10 years), but I imagine the 2+2 forums are still the best forums around for discussion of strategy, hand reviews, theory, etc. David Sklanksy and Harrington and Ed Miller's books are probably the best around still in terms of a comprehensive overview of the various games, especially…

Pretty good recommendations. I'd add that if the Chen/Ankenmann book is too abstract, then possibly the Intelligent Poker Poker by Phil Newall is a better choice - it's kind of the more applied game theory book. MoP is an excellent book for those with a math background, but as you say, it's a bit tough for those without it.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#76

Post by mod »

llamataboot wrote: post #62
mod wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds a lot like my story, only with less money involved. I casino whored about a 4k bankroll, and then started playing poker with it. I played recreationally until I quit my job for other reasonse--by then I had a 5-digit bankroll and then I played professionally for a few years, specializing in HUSNGs. I should have done more casino whoring in the beginning, it was just free money.

I ended up specializing in heads-up limit cash games...until the bots came in...heads-up poker is a special game I think - meta-play can get really high with two skilled players. Definitely the hardest I've ever has to think at a high-level for hour after hour, used to end a session absolutely wiped out mentally and emotionally.

Agree. My play sessions were short and my study sessions were long.

I kept it pretty low-key--maxed out at $200 SNGs, but I maintained a 59.something% winrate, which was as good as anybody.

I wish it would come back, but I'm not hopeful we'll ever see what we had before.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#78

Post by ferentchak »

gabemart wrote: post #32
ferentchak wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My grandfather plays a video poker game called Deuces Wild and when the payouts are set just right and you play perfect you have a slightly over 100% payout. He has been playing for over a decade in Mesquite Nevada and has been making a slight profit year after year. When you add in points rewards you can end up doing ok in free steaks and massages. The casino knows he wins and is fine with it. My guess is that they…

Sounds like you are talking about what's often called "Full Pay" Deuces Wild http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/deuces-wild...

Yeah that's the term he uses.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#79

Post by lnanek2 »

defen wrote: post #60
splonk wrote: post #45

I can expand a bit on how advantage play can work for the hold'em games against the house. I'm sure Grosjean and other professionals at this sort of thing have more sophisticated tactics. Fun fact - last I looked maybe 6-7 years ago, his book was selling for low 4 figures on the secondary market. That's how much advantage players can value an unknown tactic. About 10 years ago casinos started offering various hold'em…

> When all these games first came out, casinos had to train dealers to do this, many of whom had never played poker. I think I calculated that I'd need to see a mistake rate of something like 1/600 to make the game profitable right out of the gate, ignoring any other advantages, and I was seeing 2-3 mistakes/hr (out of maybe 30-100 hands/hr). What kind of mistakes are you talking about here? Like, the dealer has a fu…

Pros are usually referring to mistakes like trying to fill a flush when most of the cards in the suit needed are already accounted for and not possible to draw so your odds are bad, etc..

Like having 20 in Black Jack and asking for a card, you are almost certainly going out and not going to gain anything, that sort of thing.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#80

Post by dharmon »

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

I also started playing poker a lot in college for "fun money", and was looking to step up my game.

I went a different route, though. I did the math and realized that even at a very good hourly take, I would never make very much money, and that by going up to higher stakes tables if anything I would do worse. I didn't have much hope for tournaments either.

A few years before this I had worked at a day trading firm. I don't recommend technical trading (I never could find an edge there), but then it finally "clicked" and I realized the obvious connection between the stock market and poker: you are trying to find mismatched bets where the odds are tilted in your favor.

Once I made this connection I promptly switched to the stock market and never looked back (this was over 12 years ago). It took me a while to figure out a "system" (what kind of bets to look for, how do you figure "odds" with stocks, etc.) but it has been quite profitable, even counting the Great Recession, and now I do it full-time.

So anyways, if you think you really "get" poker and are willing to put in the time it takes to get good, you may be better off switching to a game that pays much better, assuming you have an interest in business.

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