How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos • Hacker News Board

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#51

Post by mmanfrin » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 7:40 PM UTC

SonicSoul wrote: post #31

downandout wrote: post #22

For those of you that don't know, the primary character in this piece, James Grosjean, isn't just any advantage player, he is the advantage player. He wrote what is often referred to as the Bible of advantage play - Beyond Counting - and its sequel, Exhibit CAA: Beyond Counting . Both of these books are incredibly hard to find, and when they do come up for sale, often sell for thousands of dollars. Here's a current l…

I know it might be judgmental and possibly hypocritical, but I can't help but think that kind of intellect and education is wasted on trying to beat a casino. If money is the end goal, wouldn't there be a bigger opportunity in pursuing investment strategy ideas (i.e. market inefficiencies), or working on making some process more efficient that could disrupt some industry (i.e. spam/phishing detection, or deep learnin…

You could say the same thing for derivatives traders. At least with beating the casino, you're usually comped swanky rooms and perks (since you're wagering so much money).

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#52

Post by llamataboot » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 7:54 PM UTC

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

There were also plenty of shady operations in those days. I seem to remember some online gaming authorities were particularly bad about not vetting their casino operators. One time we found a casino that had a game (I forget what it was, maybe a video poker variant?) that had a HUGE (5% or so?) player edge when played optimally because of an incorrect payout structure. That casino was blasted with players betting huge amounts of money -- they must have figured something was going on but they couldn't figure out what. They were probably bankrupted within a day or so. Not only did they lock everyone's winnings that had played the game, but they kept their initial deposits as well and shut down the site...

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#53

Post by MOARDONGZPLZ » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 7:54 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #50

MOARDONGZPLZ wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also illegal in the US to jail someone for debts. The way they get around this in Nevada is to jail you for writing bad checks, which is fraud. THat is to say: intentionally writing a check you know will bounce is fraud and a crime, but in the event that a check you wrote bounces, it's hard to prove that you didn't know the check would bounce when you wrote it. So it's not really debtor's prison, but almost a lo…

"Didn't know the check would bounce" implies you, what, don't know how to add up a list of numbers? Its fair to say a bounced check means bad faith.

Here are some examples where it wouldn't mean bad faith, and I'm pretty sure the majority of the time a bad check would NOT indicate bad faith:

I wrote a check, but I was changing direct deposit accounts at my employer to a new account. I transposed my account number, my paycheck didn't get deposited, my check bounced. Oops!

I completely forgot that I wrote a check earlier in the week. I write the second check after looking at my bank account balance which says I should be able to write the second check. The first check then comes through, the second check bounces. Oops!

My landlord usually cashes my rent checks on the 3rd. This month he was out of town so didn't get around to cashing it until the 10th. I checked my balance on the 9th and assuming my rent check had been cashed as usual, that I had enough to write the second check. By the time the second check is cashed, there is no money in my account so it bounces. Oops!

Didn't mean to write a check that would bounce in any of those (imaginary) situations. No intent to write a bad check means no crime of fraud, as fraud requires specific intent to defraud.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#54

Post by JoeAltmaier » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:00 PM UTC

MOARDONGZPLZ wrote: post #53

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Didn't know the check would bounce" implies you, what, don't know how to add up a list of numbers? Its fair to say a bounced check means bad faith.

Here are some examples where it wouldn't mean bad faith, and I'm pretty sure the majority of the time a bad check would NOT indicate bad faith: I wrote a check, but I was changing direct deposit accounts at my employer to a new account. I transposed my account number, my paycheck didn't get deposited, my check bounced. Oops! I completely forgot that I wrote a check earlier in the week. I write the second check after…

Most of those do constitute "not knowing how to add up a list of numbers". Checking your balance before writing a check is not sufficient, as the examples demonstrate. This is almost a perfect example of 'bad faith' e.g. the check writer isn't diligently accounting for all of their expenses.

What you 'mean' to do doesn't matter. Writing more checks than there are deposits to cover, is bad faith.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#55

Post by simonswords82 » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:03 PM UTC

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

> the best description of playing poker professionally that I ever heard was that it was like playing a game of chess for $1, then flipping a coin for $100. In the long run that chess game is the only thing that matters, but in the short run those coin flips can be brutal

Great quote! What books or online resources would you recommend for getting better at poker? Not looking to play professional but do enjoy the game and always looking to improve.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#56

Post by TheCowboy » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:03 PM UTC

johnwatson11218 wrote: post #21

TheCowboy wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the idea, that consistently winning is possible, is partially a myth, but it persists among casino regulars. I know people who do this or have in the past, and the big problem is eventually getting banned from various casinos. It seems rather one-sided to me, but legally they're allowed to ban people for consistently winning.

What about this issue that big winnings would be taxed but you would only be allowed to deduct a certain amount of your losses each year - otherwise people could claim unlimited losses. Even if you had a slight advantage over the house I don't see how you could beat the tax system.

That's not how gambling taxes work. You can't claim unlimited losses. Filing as a professional gambler allows you to net your wins and losses, usually defined as a session of play.

If winning is so volatile that you have frequent winning years and significant losing years, then yes it could be a problem since you can't report negative income.

I've only heard of winning players having negative years when accepting risk beyond what their bankroll and access to games year-round can over (for example, high high stakes games are not that common).

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#57

Post by llamataboot » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:10 PM UTC

simonswords82 wrote: post #55

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

> the best description of playing poker professionally that I ever heard was that it was like playing a game of chess for $1, then flipping a coin for $100. In the long run that chess game is the only thing that matters, but in the short run those coin flips can be brutal Great quote! What books or online resources would you recommend for getting better at poker? Not looking to play professional but do enjoy the game…

It's been a long time now since I've studied intensely (haven't played much poker outside of the occasional home game with friends for 10 years), but I imagine the 2+2 forums are still the best forums around for discussion of strategy, hand reviews, theory, etc.

David Sklanksy and Harrington and Ed Miller's books are probably the best around still in terms of a comprehensive overview of the various games, especially Hold Em and Stud, the games of course change as people change styles, but the basics are there.

If you are mathematically minded or just interested in a whirlwind tour through game theory and gambling theory, I highly recommend The Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman -- but it's a pretty heavy lift https://www.amazon.com/Mathematics-Poker-Bill-Chen/dp/188607...

I've also heard good things about Applications of No-Limit Holdem by Matthew Janda but it came out after I pretty much quit playing regularly so I haven't read it.

If watching people play is more your thing there are tons of good sites out there now were good players record themselves playing and give a running commentary on their thought process as they play. It can be quite an eye opener to listen to what a good player thinks about when they make their decisions.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#58

Post by TheCowboy » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:10 PM UTC

ferentchak wrote: post #28

TheCowboy wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that the idea, that consistently winning is possible, is partially a myth, but it persists among casino regulars. I know people who do this or have in the past, and the big problem is eventually getting banned from various casinos. It seems rather one-sided to me, but legally they're allowed to ban people for consistently winning.

My grandfather plays a video poker game called Deuces Wild and when the payouts are set just right and you play perfect you have a slightly over 100% payout. He has been playing for over a decade in Mesquite Nevada and has been making a slight profit year after year. When you add in points rewards you can end up doing ok in free steaks and massages. The casino knows he wins and is fine with it. My guess is that they…

That's a cool anecdote. Nice for him. It never hurts to be friendly and approachable, and it almost sounds like he's an honorary employee.

And machines like that are hard to find.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#59

Post by mod » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:21 PM UTC

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

This sounds a lot like my story, only with less money involved. I casino whored about a 4k bankroll, and then started playing poker with it. I played recreationally until I quit my job for other reasonse--by then I had a 5-digit bankroll and then I played professionally for a few years, specializing in HUSNGs.

I should have done more casino whoring in the beginning, it was just free money.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#60

Post by defen » Fri, Jul 01, 2016, 8:22 PM UTC

splonk wrote: post #45

I can expand a bit on how advantage play can work for the hold'em games against the house. I'm sure Grosjean and other professionals at this sort of thing have more sophisticated tactics. Fun fact - last I looked maybe 6-7 years ago, his book was selling for low 4 figures on the secondary market. That's how much advantage players can value an unknown tactic. About 10 years ago casinos started offering various hold'em…

> When all these games first came out, casinos had to train dealers to do this, many of whom had never played poker. I think I calculated that I'd need to see a mistake rate of something like 1/600 to make the game profitable right out of the gate, ignoring any other advantages, and I was seeing 2-3 mistakes/hr (out of maybe 30-100 hands/hr).

What kind of mistakes are you talking about here? Like, the dealer has a full house but mistakenly thinks he has two pair?