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After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

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Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#121

Post by lucozade »

willvarfar wrote: post #92
lucozade wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Highly unlikely. The EU generally negotiates as a bloc. It is almost inconceivable that there won't be some sort of trade deal between the EU and the UK and all of the EU would be party to it. It's probably worth pointing out also that, currently, the UK has a lot of wiggle room when it comes to its relationship with the EU just because of its size. It is very unlikely that Scotland will be given any of this both bec…

(I'm just playing along as devils advocate, with no skin in this game.) It could be said that Scotland wanting to stay would be politically super-popular with the EU, who strive to draw a sharp divide between the benefits of the EU and the costs of leaving. On the other hand, England could see the compromise where Scotland is its trade partner in Europe as a win-win too.

I can't think of any situation where Westminster will prefer for Scotland or NI to secede. You'd simply be weakening yourself politically and economically, throwing away tax revenue, and looking pretty incompetent (even more so than now).

From the EU perspective, my own view is that if Sturgeon can find a way to persuade Scotland to go the full EU i.e. Eurozone, no opt outs and no rebate then I can definitely see Juncker finding a way to accommodate by doing some sort of quid pro quo with Spain. Whether the Eurozone economy will recover sufficiently (and/or the UK economy will tank sufficiently) to make that politically viable is anyone's guess.

For NI, if it wasn't for the super strong unionist movement, I'd say that there was a lot to be said for them going full EU: they're small, relatively poor, bordering Eire. But that's a really, really big if, probably enough to kill any real chance of it occurring in the next 20 years.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#122

Post by simonh »

Kurtz79 wrote: post #97
chillydawg wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may simply never leave the EU in the first place. I think parliament won't vote to leave because they're not idiots and we won't leave.

It would like saying that the referendum was useless and the will of the people is meaningless. It would fuel civil unrest and favor far-right parties. As much as it pains me, it is not really an option.

Holland and Denmark both had EU referendums and went back for a second referendum with revised terms which passed. The British people decided to join the EU in a referendum, decided to leave the EU in a referendum and absolutely have the right to vote to stay in it again in another referendum.

The whole process is stupid, but perfectly democratic.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#123

Post by lucozade »

eru wrote: post #98
lucozade wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has been in Brussels discussing this. In summary, it's complicated. Firstly, economically, the remainder of the UK is a far larger market for Scotland than the EU. This wouldn't be a big issue if the UK can negotiate very good access to the single market but that's highly questionable. It also is complicated by the second point. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Sco…

> Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to (re)enter the EU without joining the Euro. Why? There are plenty of EU countries without the Euro..

Indeed but they either entered the EU before the Euro and negotiated an opt out or they're in the process of adopting the Euro (albeit reluctantly in some cases).

From the EU's perspective, in order for them to go against the anti-separatists such as Spain, they'd need to have a big carrot. My guess is that full EU i.e. Euro, no opt outs and no rebate would be sufficient as it's fully in keeping with the "ever closer union" agenda. I can't see anything less being sufficiently beneficial to the EU to make the necessary compromises worth it.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#124

Post by randomname2 »

simonh wrote: post #51
randomname2 wrote: post #29

Some banks are already backtracking on their promises of leaving London for Paris or Frankfurt [1] [2]. [1] http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/30/hsbc-rules-out-leaving-l... [2] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-headqua...

They are not backtracking, HSBC have never said they would move their HQ out of London. Since 2/3 of their business is in Asia it doesn't make as much difference if London is in the EU or not compared to many other banks. What HSBC have said is that they may move about 1,000 jobs to Paris. That's because those jobs are tied to services that by law must be provided within the EU legal and regulatory environment. When…

It was reported in the media and by politicians as, "banks will move to Paris and to Frankfurt if Brexit happens", and articles like this only perpetuate that talking point.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#125

Post by [deleted] »

simonh wrote: post #122
Kurtz79 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would like saying that the referendum was useless and the will of the people is meaningless. It would fuel civil unrest and favor far-right parties. As much as it pains me, it is not really an option.

Holland and Denmark both had EU referendums and went back for a second referendum with revised terms which passed. The British people decided to join the EU in a referendum, decided to leave the EU in a referendum and absolutely have the right to vote to stay in it again in another referendum. The whole process is stupid, but perfectly democratic.

[deleted]

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#126

Post by makomk »

gutnor wrote: post #114
simonh wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.

What is your legal status after triggering Article 50 ? Are you still considered a full member of the EU, meaning you retain all your rights including voting ? Lots of things are illegal for member state, basically everything that the UK needs to do in the 2 years period is illegal for a member state. Remain have been bad at campaigning but forgetting to say that -actually- they won't be able to initiate any trade ne…

Absent Article 50, surely everything the UK needs to do in the 2 years period would be legal for an EU state, because Greenland managed it? The trick is/was that EU rules (fairly obviously) allow the EU states to negotiate changes to the agreements binding the EU together, including negotiating an exit whereby one of them leaves the EU but retains some access to the internal markets.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#127

Post by makomk »

simonh wrote: post #93
sveme wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two year window post-A50 is specifically for such negotiations Actually not, the two years is just for getting the divorce right. Most experts indicate that a new arrangement can only be found after the divorce is complete. Though all that probably depends on what kind of leverage rEU wants to keep in dealing with the UK.

I think before the referendum everyone assumed the 2 years was to negotiate a new deal. Certainly all the pro-Leave campaigners seemed to think so. I'm a bit shocked that the remain camp didn't point this out earlier. It seems to me neither side really had any good idea of what exit actually would involve.

I think the reason everyone assumed that was because that was the general consensus. The idea that the EU and UK can't negotiate new trading terms until after the 2 years is up seems to be something the European Commission pulled out their ass in the last day or so.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#128

Post by bodyfour »

makomk wrote: post #127
simonh wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think before the referendum everyone assumed the 2 years was to negotiate a new deal. Certainly all the pro-Leave campaigners seemed to think so. I'm a bit shocked that the remain camp didn't point this out earlier. It seems to me neither side really had any good idea of what exit actually would involve.

I think the reason everyone assumed that was because that was the general consensus. The idea that the EU and UK can't negotiate new trading terms until after the 2 years is up seems to be something the European Commission pulled out their ass in the last day or so.

No, I think you're confused.

What they've said is that they're not willing to negotiate BEFORE the 2 years is TRIGGERED. i.e. they don't want the UK to foot-drag on triggering A50 and prolonging the process indefinitely. Basically, "shit or get off the pot"

The EU position is that if the UK is really going to trigger it, then they should do it as soon as the next PM is installed.

Again, the 2 year window is explicitly for these negotiations. It has not started yet, though.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#129

Post by makomk »

bodyfour wrote: post #128
makomk wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason everyone assumed that was because that was the general consensus. The idea that the EU and UK can't negotiate new trading terms until after the 2 years is up seems to be something the European Commission pulled out their ass in the last day or so.

No, I think you're confused. What they've said is that they're not willing to negotiate BEFORE the 2 years is TRIGGERED. i.e. they don't want the UK to foot-drag on triggering A50 and prolonging the process indefinitely. Basically, "shit or get off the pot" The EU position is that if the UK is really going to trigger it, then they should do it as soon as the next PM is installed. Again, the 2 year window is explicitl…

I'm not confused, it's just a mess. No negotiations before the two years is triggered was the original EU position. The EU (or at least their trade comissioner) has come up with a new escalation, claiming that the UK also can't negotiate any post-Brexit trading terms as part of the exit negotiations, that they have to leave the EU first before they can start negotiating on how to trade with the EU: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/cecilia-malm... This is bad not just for the UK, but also for EU states reliant on trading with the UK.

Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home

#130

Post by gonvaled »

michaelt wrote: post #55
gonvaled wrote: post #2

Why is English so important? You are going to speak it in the workplace, for sure, but why do you need that the people in the street are fluent in English? The couple of sentences that you'll exchange in the restaurant will come through even if people are not fluent.

Firstly, if you think people who move to a country and don't learn the language well are assholes, and you don't want to be an asshole. Second, you may need a decent command of the local language to access services and deal with the local authorities. For example, getting your car back if it's towed. Figuring out whether you can get a visa for that foreign consultant. Expressing your views to your political represent…

Then learn the language? We have learnt english just fine ...
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