After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
101–110 of 139 posts
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
If Scotland gets its Independence, then Edinburgh is a great candidate for a new London for the finance industry, as it's already got a decent finance presence.
Edinburgh is probably far too small and the centre is too protected (it's a World Heritage Site) for much development to happen here. I'll admit to possibly being a bit of NIMBY in my comment as I live and work in central Edinburgh! http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/728
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#103Why is English so important? You are going to speak it in the workplace, for sure, but why do you need that the people in the street are fluent in English? The couple of sentences that you'll exchange in the restaurant will come through even if people are not fluent.
Firstly, if you think people who move to a country and don't learn the language well are assholes, and you don't want to be an asshole. Second, you may need a decent command of the local language to access services and deal with the local authorities. For example, getting your car back if it's towed. Figuring out whether you can get a visa for that foreign consultant. Expressing your views to your political represent…
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Since canceling the free movement of workers was the defining issue of the referendum, I don't think there's any valid inference from "X is what a lot of people thought they would get by voting Leave" to "X is at all likely to happen if/when the UK leaves the EU". A lot of people thought that by voting Leave they were voting for an extra £350M/week that would go to the NHS. Nigel Farage admitted within an hour of t…
Good post, I agree with it all, but on this: > I'm not, for the avoidance of doubt, saying that if/when the UK leaves the EU we will still have free exchange of goods, services, capital and workers, or that London will keep its passporting rights. We might well lose those things. We are guaranteed to lose those things at least for some time, because we can't even begin to negotiate getting them back until we're out o…
The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted by the treatment of the people in Greece and other countries)
However, that's a bit similar that the whole referendum but applied to Europe in general, EU may well take crazy decision. See for example how Junker is talking about the UK as if it has spit in his face (remember that's a narrow victory for Leave mostly based on outright lies), then meeting the Scottish PM forgetting the referendum from 2 years ago and even saying the "Brexit will not be an amicable divorce" and anyone knows that amicable in the context of a divorce does not mean friendly, it is only amicable by comparison with the destructive mess of going through legal proceedings.
edit: The number of EU people living in the UK is more than 3 millions, that's more than the 7 smaller member of the EU, that's more people than the difference between Leave and Remain (disclaimer: that also includes me) That's what make me the most uncomfortable with Junker, he does not care about the people, he just react like a kid because the UK is making him look bad.
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
gadders has a point. It'd be leaving one union to 'gain independence' only to join another, with a corresponding loss of sovereignty. Indeed the main reason (according to Lord Ashcroft's poll) people voted to leave the EU in the refendum was to regain sovereignty.
I covered this in the post you're replying to, but having to beg someone to let you leave vs. saying "we're leaving" shows a clear disparity in sovereignty. Most of the claims of loss of sovereignty to the EU were in fact nonsense. This video by an expert in EU law covers it in detail: https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/16/watch-dishonesty-ind... > So let us start with a couple of myths. The first is the myth of so…
The depth of his analysis (which goes no further than the Working Time Directive!) is about consistent with most self-proclaimed experts on Law that have never practiced it themselves. The same goes for his impartiality.
For instance, his conclusion that the UK is sovereign because parliament ultimately decides what the UK courts do is nonsense: what do you think would happen if our courts started ignoring the rulings of the ECJ?
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about banks that weren't bailed out, why should they be punished for the failure of their competitors? What about banks that have repaid their bailouts with interest? But more than that, why this focus on bonuses rather than total compensation? Surely what matters is how much someone is paid, not the details of how that payment is structured.
Bonus is usually paid out as a reward for short term goals, and that creates incentives to take higher risk in the short term. Total compensation does not have this incentive. I am a banker (although we are a startup bank), and for us the bonus is structured so that it is not paid in full immediately. Quite a bit is held back in case someone does something unhealthy to the company to reach their short term bonus goal…
If specific pay structures create bad behaviour then perhaps we should ban them, sure. But banning bonuses in general seems far too broad. How many people complaining about bonuses on this site have pay that includes stock or options - aren't those much the same thing?
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's also not that clear that Brexit will force finance away from London, which is well entrenched. Maybe not all, but a lot. Over the last few decades London has captured a lot of business that has to be conducted within the EU for regulatory and legal reasons. One example is clearing trades; London clearing houses have captured about 80% of clearing activity from exchanges all across Europe. there are many others…
> Another is the LSE/Berlin stock exchange merger which was going to see the German exchange hosted and operating from London. That deal will not now happen. DAX is in Frankfurt, not Berlin. What will be interesting is if the deal does go on, but happens in reverse. It might provide an easier path for LSE-listed companies with a heavy European interest to move to DAX. > we cannot even start to negotiate any deals wit…
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#108Interesting times.
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
Good post, I agree with it all, but on this: > I'm not, for the avoidance of doubt, saying that if/when the UK leaves the EU we will still have free exchange of goods, services, capital and workers, or that London will keep its passporting rights. We might well lose those things. We are guaranteed to lose those things at least for some time, because we can't even begin to negotiate getting them back until we're out o…
If the UK negotiate to be part of the EEA within 2 years of activating Article 50, then it will be a smooth transition. The other unknown that parent did not mention is how hard will the EU make those negotiation. Everybody economical interest is that the EU accept, even politically punishing an ex-member for leaving is going to have consequences in the EU and internationally ( Eurosceptic movement have been boosted…
As I have tried to explain, negotiating to join the EEA while still a member of the EU is illegal under EU law. They can only start that negotiation after actually leaving the EU, not after triggering Article 50.
Re: After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The two year window post-A50 is specifically for such negotiations Actually not, the two years is just for getting the divorce right. Most experts indicate that a new arrangement can only be found after the divorce is complete. Though all that probably depends on what kind of leverage rEU wants to keep in dealing with the UK.
I think before the referendum everyone assumed the 2 years was to negotiate a new deal. Certainly all the pro-Leave campaigners seemed to think so. I'm a bit shocked that the remain camp didn't point this out earlier. It seems to me neither side really had any good idea of what exit actually would involve.
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on...