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How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

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Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#91

Post by ethbro »

apendleton wrote: post #81
ethbro wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robotic automation of any sort doesn't occur in a vacuum. If 50% of the jobs in a field are automated, in the near term you still have 100% of the former labor looking for that job, pushing salaries down towards their minimum, thereby reducing the cost effectiveness of further automation.

Though of course (without passing a value judgment on such policies) minimum wages set an artificial lower bound on the cost of human labor here, and this kind of low-skill work is inexpensive enough that hitting that bound is likely (vs., say, automating legal work), especially as minimum wages rise. For some industries getting to the point that near-100% automation is cheaper than $15/hour for humans is totally pla…

Exactly. The differences between minimum wage and UBI is fascinating, but I didn't want to bring it up above.

To me, minimum wage says "if you work, then you should at least able to support yourself on your income$." UBI+ says "if you work, you must find greater fulfillment than mere sustenance in your work."

Personally, I can't see minimum wage applying to anyone receiving UBI. Although it might make sense to have a "less than minimum wage" tax that helps fund the UBI directly.

$ Abstracting away actual amounts and whether or not they're enough

+ Market adjustments aside

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#92

Post by sbov »

ethbro wrote: post #91
apendleton wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though of course (without passing a value judgment on such policies) minimum wages set an artificial lower bound on the cost of human labor here, and this kind of low-skill work is inexpensive enough that hitting that bound is likely (vs., say, automating legal work), especially as minimum wages rise. For some industries getting to the point that near-100% automation is cheaper than $15/hour for humans is totally pla…

Exactly. The differences between minimum wage and UBI is fascinating, but I didn't want to bring it up above. To me, minimum wage says "if you work, then you should at least able to support yourself on your income$." UBI+ says "if you work, you must find greater fulfillment than mere sustenance in your work." Personally, I can't see minimum wage applying to anyone receiving UBI. Although it might make sense to have a…

At the same time, an UBI will make it so people still don't care to perform certain below-current-minimum-wage jobs. E.g. if I were on UBI, and I effectively earned $15/hour through it, I still wouldn't bother looking at jobs unless they paid, say, $5/hour or more.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#93

Post by Aelinsaar »

taneq wrote: post #22
Aelinsaar wrote: post #3

Interesting. I wonder if this system and that "Hover" technology would be a good fit? A warehouse seems like one of the good places to line the floor with metal and clear the people out.

You mean the electromagnetic 'hoverboard' thing? This is probably the best bet for that tech to become relevant, but it's hard to see how it'd be more efficient than just using air cushions, which are an established way of moving heavy things around on smooth floors (let alone wheels).

That's what I was thinking of, and to be honest, don't know much about it. Maybe there's a potential maintenance advantage, given fewer moving parts?

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#94

Post by Lagged2Death »

kristofferR wrote: post #24

Komplett.no, which aims to become the Amazon of Norway (the real Amazon doesn't care about Norway), has a really cool automated warehouse (AutoStore) which seems even more advanced than Amazons: http://autostoresystem.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O0UKARdLDc (360° video) http://www.tu.no/artikler/unik-video-bli-med-inn-i-kompletts... The packages still need to be packaged by hand though, but it seems like it…

I really enjoyed seeing this, it's thought provoking and futuristic.

It does seem to emphasize efficient use of land area, though, and in the case of modern warehouses in North America, at least, I imagine the real estate itself is effectively cheaper than ever (because modern warehouses are built so big and so far away from everything, and because tax incentives often reward new construction) and only getting cheaper. It seems like an odd variable to optimize.

If real estate were at a premium, wouldn't we expect to see traditional warehouses, distribution centers, data centers etc in a multi-story format? But as far as I know, we don't. Instead, owners opt for giant footprints on cheap land.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#95

Post by tamana »

Lagged2Death wrote: post #94
kristofferR wrote: post #24

Komplett.no, which aims to become the Amazon of Norway (the real Amazon doesn't care about Norway), has a really cool automated warehouse (AutoStore) which seems even more advanced than Amazons: http://autostoresystem.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O0UKARdLDc (360° video) http://www.tu.no/artikler/unik-video-bli-med-inn-i-kompletts... The packages still need to be packaged by hand though, but it seems like it…

I really enjoyed seeing this, it's thought provoking and futuristic. It does seem to emphasize efficient use of land area, though, and in the case of modern warehouses in North America, at least, I imagine the real estate itself is effectively cheaper than ever (because modern warehouses are built so big and so far away from everything, and because tax incentives often reward new construction) and only getting cheape…

Amazon has both national warehouses in middle of nowhere (but near airports) for general shipping, and small local warehouses for 1day delivery in urban areas.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#96

Post by ethbro »

sbov wrote: post #92
ethbro wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The differences between minimum wage and UBI is fascinating, but I didn't want to bring it up above. To me, minimum wage says "if you work, then you should at least able to support yourself on your income$." UBI+ says "if you work, you must find greater fulfillment than mere sustenance in your work." Personally, I can't see minimum wage applying to anyone receiving UBI. Although it might make sense to have a…

At the same time, an UBI will make it so people still don't care to perform certain below-current-minimum-wage jobs. E.g. if I were on UBI, and I effectively earned $15/hour through it, I still wouldn't bother looking at jobs unless they paid, say, $5/hour or more.

I think that's one of the most fascinating questions about UBI though. Hypothetically, if you had UBI and were content at that level of consumption, what would you do? If I absolutely loved animals, I can certainly see working in a pet store for $2/hr or a pittance.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#97

Post by nl »

icebraining wrote: post #88
ximeng wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Standard oil? Microsoft? At a high level government and big business are very similar in scope. It's not a matter of one or the other - your analysis is too simple. Government created the baby bells, not creative destruction. Government circumscribed ms.

Standard Oil was never a monopoly, and even its 90% market share had already dropped to 70% two years later when the government even filed charged, and even more when the case was decided. Microsoft's market position is inseparable from its support by government in the form of software patents. When their rent on Android phones is larger than their income from their own phones, and that rent is purely based on having…

Microsoft was monopolistic in the 1990's, where they exploited their Windows monopoly to the expense of Netscape. That wasn't patents, it was market dominance.

(Not a fan of patents, but that wasn't the problem back then).

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#98

Post by chillacy »

Animats wrote: post #90
chillacy wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These guys could be interesting, at least for smaller warehouses: http://www.inviarobotics.com/ Despite Kiva's simplicity, the warehouse has to be designed completely for robotic use, whereas these robots navigate around existing human accessible shelves. If Kiva is railway trains, these guys are automated cars: designed for the existing world.

Invia isn't shipping a product. They're just demoing a prototype under ideal conditions. Their robot doesn't look robust enough for a real warehouse. In a few years, they might be able to compete with Kiva, but not yet. If you have a distribution center with Kiva robots, and need to replace them now, you have a problem. A Kiva warehouse is just a big space with a flat floor. It's not like the old Automated Storage an…

Yes, I am aware that kiva is a big space with a flat floor, with the floor containing taped markers and the robots taking up all the space. That's why I said "designed for robotic use". There are plenty of warehouses that are laid out more like Invia's demo than Kiva's floor, hence it would be cheaper to bring in a couple of robots to try them on vs investing in something like Kiva.

I'm also aware that invia hasn't shipped yet, that's why I said "could be interesting"

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#99

Post by codeonfire »

huherto wrote: post #56
codeonfire wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't be used for large item warehouses and are probably not worth it for smaller warehouses. Also existing warehouses that are multilevel with plywood flooring probably can't be retrofitted easily. Since their focus seems to be on same day, one hour delivery from small urban warehouses, the majority of their new warehouses are probably not going to use kiva.

Why are they not worht for smaller warehouses ? The cost of kiva robots for amazone are per unit. Thus proportional to the size of the warehouse.

Cost of installing the system, cost of maintenance for a smaller number of bots, less dense shelving, more specialized training, lower picking costs because of smaller area. Prime now also delivers refrigerated food which probably Kiva can't do.

Probably smaller warehouses are not purpose built for Kiva so maybe they don't have power, floor space, or layout to make kiva work well. This one in Manhattan is only 40k feet and has low ceilings: http://time.com/4159144/amazon-prime-warehouse-new-york-city...

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#100

Post by icebraining »

nl wrote: post #97
icebraining wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Standard Oil was never a monopoly, and even its 90% market share had already dropped to 70% two years later when the government even filed charged, and even more when the case was decided. Microsoft's market position is inseparable from its support by government in the form of software patents. When their rent on Android phones is larger than their income from their own phones, and that rent is purely based on having…

Microsoft was monopolistic in the 1990's, where they exploited their Windows monopoly to the expense of Netscape. That wasn't patents, it was market dominance. (Not a fan of patents, but that wasn't the problem back then).

The claim I was supporting was "there are no examples of monopolies lasting more than a few years unless they have overt support from the state", not that no company ever gains an overwhelming market share. Yes, IE was once at the very top. And a few years later, it wasn't, thanks to competition.

Meanwhile, the government lawsuit not only did nothing to curb their position (IE kept rising at the same rate), as it gave Microsoft "a special antitrust immunity to license Windows and other 'platform software' under contractual terms that destroy freedom of competition."[1]

[1] http://www.unclaw.com/chin/scholarship/nando.pdf

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