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Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

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Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#11
post #9

Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?

Nothing, but they'll not allow you get a deal like Norway's or Switzerland's because if Brussels do, other will follow suit.

Doesn't that say a lot about how much everyone loves Brussels? :-P

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#12
post #9

Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?

I'd be interested in seeing a comparison between Norway and the UK's current EU status. The UK has negotiated so many opt-outs that they must be pretty close.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#13
post #11
post #9

Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?

Nothing, but they'll not allow you get a deal like Norway's or Switzerland's because if Brussels do, other will follow suit. Doesn't that say a lot about how much everyone loves Brussels? :-P

Eventually, business thinking will overtake hurt feelings.

The UK is a big, affluent country and the EU (read: Germany) needs to export its upmarket products (read: BMWs) somewhere :-).

Not as many customers for expensive cars in Greece or Italy these days.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#14
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing, but they'll not allow you get a deal like Norway's or Switzerland's because if Brussels do, other will follow suit. Doesn't that say a lot about how much everyone loves Brussels? :-P

Eventually, business thinking will overtake hurt feelings. The UK is a big, affluent country and the EU (read: Germany) needs to export its upmarket products (read: BMWs) somewhere :-). Not as many customers for expensive cars in Greece or Italy these days.

the answer is embedded in your question: why do you think it is that Italy and GR are not good markets for BMWs anymore?

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#16
post #10

It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's h…

>It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy

Rubbish, if circumstances change it's entirely reasonable and democratic to hold another vote.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#17
post #10

It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's h…

>It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy Rubbish, if circumstances change it's entirely reasonable and democratic to hold another vote.

> Rubbish, if circumstances change it's entirely reasonable and democratic to hold another vote.

Sure, in 40 years or so.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#18

Can the Queen override the vote or review it?

No. Not without a massive shitstorm.

The Queen is tolerated because she's seen as an almost entirely symbolic figurehead without any actual power, and because the alternative would mean a President Blair or President Boris or something equally terrible.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#19
post #9

Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?

The common market has four freedoms: Freedom of goods, services, capital, and movement. They come as a package. You don't get access to the common market without accepting freedom of movement. EU countries said that before Brexit, and they're saying it after Brexit.

So, we either accept freedom of movement and get access to the common market. That will be deeply unpopular with the people who voted to "take back control of our immigration".

Or we reject freedom of movement, and accept that our trade deals are going to be hobbled.

People seem to think that the EU would never do that because capitalism. You only have to look at stupid shit like wine lakes, butter mountains, cheese mountains, milk lakes, etc etc (Holland even had a shit lake in the 80s [1]) to see that the EU is more than capable of doing sub-optimal stuff.

[1] http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-10-18/business/87031...

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#20
post #8

A clear one would be that the integrity of UK democracy would be severely damaged. If I understand correctly, the only way of leaving is using that article so not using it would be to not hear what the people said in the referendum.

The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave.

That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population.

They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.

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