The problem is the math don't add up. To give 13k per adult(242M) you need 3.2T. The total us Budget in 2015 was 3.8T so you need to increase taxes by 81%. If you subtract out all the welfare benefits you(615B(16%)) you still need to raise taxes buy 65%.
Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
81–90 of 126 posts
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#82"It might also shift the norm whether to work. Work = being part of society " - Markus Brunnermeier(1) I love how simply Markus arrived at the fundamental political issue with Basic Income in the USA: American culture and society is a "work culture". If you're not working you're not part of society. That's a very plain and powerful statement that is central to many of the gut-reaction trump-esque disparaging argument…
Yet being part of society is something that people desire deeply, so it's possible that they'll just make their own work. I found Tim O'Reilly's musing on Econtalk last year (link - http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/10/tim_oreilly_on.html ) to be persuasive - he posited that in a potential future where a min income is necessary, humans will spend a lot more time entertaining each other. Hey, Harry Potter was writ…
Why won't the people doing all that work to entertain each other earn an income for doing so, thus making it so a min income isn't necessary?
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#83The formulation of the question frames Social Security and Medicare as being mutually exclusive with a UBI. UBI ought to replace things like food stamps and welfare. Not healthcare or retirement benefits! I am a huge fan of UBI, and I would have voted "disagree" the way that question was framed. A better formulation would be to frame UBI as an "automation dividend". Where we dip into increased efficiencies produced b…
The reason it does so is that it's the only viable way to fund it. 235,715,590 people 21+ in the US. At $13k/year that's just over $3 trillion dollars per year. Social Security spending was $888b in 2015, Medicare spending was $546b in 2015, and other welfare spending was $1.031b. If you cut all SS, Medicare, and other welfare spending and redirected it into a $13k/yr UBI, you'd still be about 20% short of your neces…
Every thread about UBI is full of people doing this same math. Anyone who thought that you could have UBI without taxes to zero it out for most of the population has long since been convinced. Who are you writing this for?
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#84The problem is the math don't add up. To give 13k per adult(242M) you need 3.2T. The total us Budget in 2015 was 3.8T so you need to increase taxes by 81%. If you subtract out all the welfare benefits you(615B(16%)) you still need to raise taxes buy 65%.
or at 4.8T in US retail sales you could have a 80% retail sales tax.
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#85Not surprising there are so many negative responses, the question was poorly worded. No way that you can kill medicare and replace it with a $13k yearly income.
> > This is a dumb question. We are not going to eliminate Social Security and Medicare etc.
> -- Richard Thaler
Yes, you're not alone in that thought.
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#86"It might also shift the norm whether to work. Work = being part of society " - Markus Brunnermeier(1) I love how simply Markus arrived at the fundamental political issue with Basic Income in the USA: American culture and society is a "work culture". If you're not working you're not part of society. That's a very plain and powerful statement that is central to many of the gut-reaction trump-esque disparaging argument…
It is a simplistic but very ironic claim.
One of the main problems with the existing social net is that it comes with "economic cliffs" where making a little more is not to your economic advantage. And then people who make the rational decision are seen as "lazy".
For a real example, my niece had to turn down a job because it paid her $0.20 too much to stay on food stamps. And she couldn't be paid less because it would have broken union rules. So she did the rational thing and turned down the better job. Which meant that her skills and education went underutilized.
One of the big arguments for UBI is that this kind of thing doesn't happen.
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#87The problem is the math don't add up. To give 13k per adult(242M) you need 3.2T. The total us Budget in 2015 was 3.8T so you need to increase taxes by 81%. If you subtract out all the welfare benefits you(615B(16%)) you still need to raise taxes buy 65%.
[deleted]
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#88"It might also shift the norm whether to work. Work = being part of society " - Markus Brunnermeier(1) I love how simply Markus arrived at the fundamental political issue with Basic Income in the USA: American culture and society is a "work culture". If you're not working you're not part of society. That's a very plain and powerful statement that is central to many of the gut-reaction trump-esque disparaging argument…
It is a simplistic but very ironic claim. One of the main problems with the existing social net is that it comes with "economic cliffs" where making a little more is not to your economic advantage. And then people who make the rational decision are seen as "lazy". For a real example, my niece had to turn down a job because it paid her $0.20 too much to stay on food stamps. And she couldn't be paid less because it wou…
Would the better job been the first in a series of steps to even better jobs/promotions in the future? Did that job have the same pay from now until retirement? Would a year of hard work in this job yield a raise that offset the loss to food stamps? If any of these are true, her's wasn't the rational decision, it was the most convenient, least risky decision.
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#89I don't know a better way to put this. The whole UBI idea that shows up here a lot (e.g. https://stratechery.com/2016/the-brexit-possibility/ ) is just naive. And now we have a nice poll of the experts to justify that judgement. UBI of $13k has the same support from experts as does denying climate change.
UBI, is one of those things I just cannot logically compute. I am completely in support of the end goals of UBI. Just cannot fathom how UBI can even theoretically works. It seems to ignore Economics, Game Theory, and Human Nature. I just dont understand how it could rationally be viewed as a workable solution.
It works by not applying to everyone. If it were actually universal, it would send the value of the UBI to 0, since it's the amount you get by not doing anything. But restricted to, say, US citizens, it's a tax on US citizens who have economic worth to let those who don't buy things from outside the US.
Re: Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
UBI, is one of those things I just cannot logically compute. I am completely in support of the end goals of UBI. Just cannot fathom how UBI can even theoretically works. It seems to ignore Economics, Game Theory, and Human Nature. I just dont understand how it could rationally be viewed as a workable solution.
Can you share details on what specifically isn't computing?
I'm no "apalmer", but have a similar perspective...
From a simple supply and demand standpoint, how does the extra income introduced not simply cause the cost of basic* goods to rise accordingly such that you end up with your UBI increasingly falling behind what is needed to support a minimum standard of living?
* Added "basic" for clarity, I don't imagine this would affect the cost of luxury, or recreational goods to a large extent, but an extra $1000+/month per person would, I expect, have a drastic effect on housing rental rates amidst the lower to middle class residential areas