After the dust settled down it seems most likely, that the new prime minister (if there will be a new one at all) will never trigger article 50.
What would be the ramifications of this outcome?
Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
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Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#2I think Article 50 will probably be triggered, but dragged out. Britain loses little from waiting this out until it's negotiating position improves.The EU is scared that other countries may wobble on their decision to stay and wants this done quickly.
After listening to Theresa May and Boris Johnson exclude the idea of a general election I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be a reversal on the Brexit. The Tory party seem to have staked their future on it and will continue on this path to 'a greater future for our children'
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#3I think Article 50 will probably be triggered, but dragged out. Britain loses little from waiting this out until it's negotiating position improves.The EU is scared that other countries may wobble on their decision to stay and wants this done quickly. After listening to Theresa May and Boris Johnson exclude the idea of a general election I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be a reversal on th…
I disagree. I think the fact that Boris hasn't stood in the leadership race is rather telling: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672591
Any PM that invokes Article 50 will likely get a very poor post-brexit agreement with the EU.
That will no doubt result in 'the city' acting accordingly.
Also after Article 50 has been invoked, we'll likely lose our presidency of the EU in 2017, and it's likely the discussions will last at least 3-4 years.
I certainly don't think any PM will do what is actually needed to get our economy on track.
- Remove the ridiculous "internal market" in the NHS - Lapse the train operator contracts and run them as BR once did. - Re-nationalise our infrastructure (electricity, water and gas) - Stop defunding the NHS - Stop defunding Local Councils, and allow them to build houses (rather than have housing organisations do it)
There's certainly more (Like proportional representation) but I read somewhere that odd-numbered lists fair better when read ;-)
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#4I think Article 50 will probably be triggered, but dragged out. Britain loses little from waiting this out until it's negotiating position improves.The EU is scared that other countries may wobble on their decision to stay and wants this done quickly. After listening to Theresa May and Boris Johnson exclude the idea of a general election I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be a reversal on th…
On politicians excluding anything:
"I have no plans to stand for Prime Minister" - Everyone who ever stood for Prime Minister.
"I can tell you I'm absolutely not. The one thing I can tell you is there are lots of talented people who could be prime minister after David Cameron but count me out." Gove, June 3rd to Sky News
A credible way of reversing Brexit without quite the same direct slap to those who voted leave would be to delay long enough for new leader, call general election, winning party stands on a Remain ticket. There'd be outrage, of course, but rather less than another referendum "wrong answer, try again" or just ignoring the referendum.
Having fixed term parliaments complicates a little as I think there has to be a vote of no confidence. Perhaps that's the final outcome for Cameron? Fitting, if so.
I don't think it's very likely, but I am sure it is being considered seriously.
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#5EU would be angry and probably wouldn't let us back under exactly the same terms. I suspect we'd be offered (and begrudgingly accept) slightly more inclusive terms such as taking more refugees, no rebate and still out of Schengan/Eurozone. We'd be back in and somewhat back to normal within five years but considerably worse off. Well, the working and middle classes would be worse off.
Worth it. Crossed fingers for it.
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#6EU would be angry and probably wouldn't let us back under exactly the same terms. I suspect we'd be offered (and begrudgingly accept) slightly more inclusive terms such as taking more refugees, no rebate and still out of Schengan/Eurozone. We'd be back in and somewhat back to normal within five years but considerably worse off. Well, the working and middle classes would be worse off. Worth it. Crossed fingers for it.
We haven't left yet and if article 50 doesn't get triggered then we won't leave at all.
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#7I think Article 50 will probably be triggered, but dragged out. Britain loses little from waiting this out until it's negotiating position improves.The EU is scared that other countries may wobble on their decision to stay and wants this done quickly. After listening to Theresa May and Boris Johnson exclude the idea of a general election I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be a reversal on th…
The EU wants this done quickly because the uncertainty is killing investments and the economy.
It is irresponsible from the Tories to not have called article 50 the next morning. The sooner this gets done, the better for both the UK and the EU.
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#8A clear one would be that the integrity of UK democracy would be severely damaged. If I understand correctly, the only way of leaving is using that article so not using it would be to not hear what the people said in the referendum.
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#9Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?
Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?
#10It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's how bad Greece is today.
If a PM do what you suggest and he doesn't bring something staggering like 10% growth, your next PM will Farage. I assure you that most of that 52% will vote someone who'll get the job done right away.
Instead of taking for granted that only an idiot would vote for Brexit, it's a good idea to understand the reasons they did. It's appalling but even my beloved John Oliver seems to have a very low regard for democracy when the populace doesn't deliver what he thinks it's right.
Given the latest developments within the EU, I would not worry too much. The EU will tore itself apart before you end up the negotiations with Brussels and at that point we'll be probably at square1 and you'll have the upper hand as your economy is bigger then most in Europe.
Off topic but still: I believe May will be the new leader. Gove eliminated himself and Boris Johnson in one blow :-)