Investing Returns on the S&P500 • Hacker News Board

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#331

Post by e12e » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 7:14 AM UTC

jomamaxx wrote: post #325

e12e wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see the emergence of any new 'superpower' and America will likely remain the only 'superpower' in the classical sense, but it won't be as powerful as it is today - relatively speaking. Maybe. But the trend towards privatising military force could end up accelerating USA's slide down in terms of military power. If we are indeed moving back to the "normal" (historically speaking) "neo medieval" world were mil…

"But the trend towards privatising military force could end up accelerating USA's slide down in terms of military power. " + This is a very marginal thing. " If we are indeed moving back to the "normal" (historically speaking) "neo medieval" world were military force is generally mercenary and not national standing armies" + This is not happening. Don't worry about it. Listen - war is too expensive. It is only econom…

Iraq was "a real nation" before the first gulf war. Indeed, as you point out - the US lost that war by any sensible measure - but that doesn't mean the same mistakes won't be repeated. And the gulf operations were something of a 50/50 split between contractors and military personnel, at least towards the end of the protracted conflict.

Don't forget that "the end of war" as proclaimed after world war one - because a new world war would be too costly, and too horrible for anyone to contemplate. Of course no one will start a war they think they will lose. You start wars you are "certain" you will win. And then they escalate. And escalate.

> The 'big shift' over the next 50 years is that 4 billion people who are not even on the radar today are going from $2 a day, to $50 a day in terms of GDP.

I absolutely agree that this is going to be the biggest change. With accompanying logistics, new (political and economical) battles over water rights and so on. If there's a new "private" war, I'm guessing it will start with a large contractor being hired by some regime to "calm down" "unreasonable unrest" over stealing natural resources and handing them over to corporations, like for example privatizing water (or as one can see in Niger, privatizing oil).

I certainly hope we won't see a third world war, but I'm also afraid of people that seem to think that large scale war is "unlikely". Nothing in history suggests that it is.

[ed: And "insurgents" are likely to always be proxy wars. The US created the modern resistance in Afghanistan to fight Sovjet power, and then end up fighting that same insurgency, now supported by Saudis, which are allies on paper.]

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#332

Post by Halaoo » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 8:31 AM UTC

Now if only the next 100 years will be the same as the last 100 years! Even though it's a totally different world.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#333

Post by messel » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:19 AM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #291

fedora_hat wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

200 years most people farmed, 15 years ago SEO, apps, and YouTubers didn't exist either, yes YouTubers... News jobs are already being created.

> News jobs are already being created. Not fast enough to replace the abolished ones, and most of those new jobs are knowledge work, which can't scale as there's a IQ floor that will stop most people from being able to work them. The more we shift to knowledge work, the higher unemployment will climb. You're making the mistake of thinking the past predicts the future, but today's automation is unprecedented, it will…

Humans have a knack for adaption. We'll figure out the employment problems that result from automation and robotics. We'd make great pets.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#334

Post by qwtel » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

ozten wrote: post #11

Does the stock data used suffer from Surviver bias? That is a free download of historical data that lacks failing, delisted companies of the past.

The survivorship bias applies to the U.S. data as a whole. I've found this paper [1] that adds data from 15 more countries, some of which experienced interruptions (germany) but still excludes those that suffered "permanent interruptions" (eastern bloc) to the sample. Needless to say, the results are not as exciting.

Memorable quote form the paper (quoted in turn from Samuelson):

> We only have one history of capitalism. Inferences based on a sample of one must never be accorded sure-thing interpretations. When a thirty-five-year-old lost 82% of his pension portfolio between 1929 and 1932, do you think it was fore-ordained in heaven that later it would come back and fructify to +400% by his retirement at sixty-five? How did 1932 Tsarist executives fare in their retirement years on the Left Bank of Paris?

[1]: http://merage.uci.edu/~jorion/papers/risk.pdf

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#335

Post by FuNe » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 11:26 AM UTC

Ehm it's a bit of a long shot to assume next 100 years will be more or less business as usual. Having said that and after a quick look around the climate frontier, economy and international affairs I'd probably buy (if I had money to burn) defence industries stock.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#336

Post by aminorex » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 1:28 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #299

velodrome wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our infrastructure needs a lot of work ($4T dollars worth). Improving our infrastructure has a good ROI (GDP multiplier). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LKZQT6pv_oU/TBqKqQaCcaI/AAAAAAAAA6... http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/infrastructure/our-insigh... http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/grades/

The problem with infrastructure spending isn't that it doesn't potentially have a good ROI, it is that the process channels the money to wasteful projects that don't have a good ROI.

This is what happens in every ecosystem as the available energy sources become fully exploited. Featherbedding and cronyism are the parasitic vines which strangle enough trees so that when the next lightning strike comes the conflagration is inevitable. They cannot exist without the forest. When the forest grows to maturity they become inevitable.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#337

Post by aminorex » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 1:29 PM UTC

choosername wrote: post #260

ommunist wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nil has very interesting qualities.

Nothing has no values. Nil is nothing thoug, or what properties should it have?

It noths. With vigor.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#338

Post by gnaritas » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 3:06 PM UTC

jjeaff wrote: post #329

gnaritas wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even hedge funds aren't zero sum. They receive dividends on the investments they hold which is a return that is not zero sum. Once again, that depends on the trade, short term trades don't make their money from dividends, but from timing the market. > Additionally, financial services overall are far from zero sum. Beside the point, plenty of them are zero-sum-never said they were all zero-sum; that exception exist…

No, I didn't say there are exceptions. I said MOST financial services are NOT zero sum. The zero sum ones are the exception.

Utterly missing the point, goodbye.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#339

Post by gnaritas » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 3:11 PM UTC

messel wrote: post #333

gnaritas wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> News jobs are already being created. Not fast enough to replace the abolished ones, and most of those new jobs are knowledge work, which can't scale as there's a IQ floor that will stop most people from being able to work them. The more we shift to knowledge work, the higher unemployment will climb. You're making the mistake of thinking the past predicts the future, but today's automation is unprecedented, it will…

Humans have a knack for adaption. We'll figure out the employment problems that result from automation and robotics. We'd make great pets.

Humans have a knack for selfishness and war, it's more likely there will be much needless suffering and death along any path to an eventual solution to those problems, which will likely be a solution that most suffer under.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#340

Post by knd775 » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 3:20 PM UTC

reddytowns wrote: post #324

xiaoma wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are Japan's. The idea isn't to get a profit off of tickets vs operating costs. The idea is to improve the efficiency of the country and economy. It's an investment. If the US had a similar political climate the east coast would already have high speed rail from New York to Miami.

Japan has a very low subsidy and most of its railways are private and receive none.

I think that Japan's population density and relatively small size makes it much easier to make money on railways.