How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race • Hacker News Board

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#31

Post by michaelt » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 8:32 AM UTC

sgift wrote: post #21

tuna-piano wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know many college graduates in their mid/late twenties doing various "knowledge" jobs. Many of them consider their jobs soul crushing. Most people don't like their work. Most people don't like waking up on someone else's schedule and do work that their told to do. That's why businesses pay them, after all.

And I always thought businesses pay you because you do something which they value, and that this is sometimes soul crushing is just a coincidence.

Well, "Why would a company pay people to do this?" is a different question to "Why would a worker want pay to do this, rather than doing it for free?"

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#32

Post by codeonfire » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 8:33 AM UTC

jpeg_hero wrote: post #19

I thought Amazon was pulling back on Kiva. I thought I read somewhere that new warehouses were not using the Kiva systems.

They can't be used for large item warehouses and are probably not worth it for smaller warehouses. Also existing warehouses that are multilevel with plywood flooring probably can't be retrofitted easily. Since their focus seems to be on same day, one hour delivery from small urban warehouses, the majority of their new warehouses are probably not going to use kiva.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#33

Post by chillacy » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 8:35 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #18

I'd wondered how Kiva's old customers were doing. Now we know. There really isn't a direct replacement for Kiva robots from another vendor. The great thing about Kiva robots is that they're quite simple and robust mechanically. They're a battery, motors, wheels, and a lift mechanism. They're completely interchangeable, and having one fail isn't a big deal. Maintenance is replacing batteries, motors, wheels, and maybe…

These guys could be interesting, at least for smaller warehouses: http://www.inviarobotics.com/

Despite Kiva's simplicity, the warehouse has to be designed completely for robotic use, whereas these robots navigate around existing human accessible shelves. If Kiva is railway trains, these guys are automated cars: designed for the existing world.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#34

Post by timv » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 8:45 AM UTC

lmm wrote: post #30

timv wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a soul-crushing job is better than no job Really? Do you mean: "Being paid to do soul-crushing work is better than not being paid" ? Or: "Doing soul-crushing work is better than having nothing to do" ? The first is an issue of income and the distribution of product (in the GDP sense of product). There is no axiomatic rule that says "you have to have a job to get paid", it's just how our current economy operates. If…

> Or: "Doing soul-crushing work is better than having nothing to do" ? Are we sure this isn't true? Are people who don't have to work (e.g. those on permanent disability in the US) more or less happy than comparable people in dead-end soulless jobs?

> Are we sure this isn't true?

I don't know of any studies, but I suspect there would be some.

In addition to the question of "how do we share income in a less-work world?", there is the question "how do we ensure that the are opportunities for everyone to contribute something meaningful to society?"

Ideally those questions would connect - we would use our increased product(ivity) to fund a wider range of human endeavours that might not have been considered "economically productive" in previous generations.

I don't know what that looks like, but I would hope it means more art and science, rather than more soul crushing, meaningless busy-work.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#35

Post by nl » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:14 AM UTC

kuschku wrote: post #25

Animats wrote: post #18

I'd wondered how Kiva's old customers were doing. Now we know. There really isn't a direct replacement for Kiva robots from another vendor. The great thing about Kiva robots is that they're quite simple and robust mechanically. They're a battery, motors, wheels, and a lift mechanism. They're completely interchangeable, and having one fail isn't a big deal. Maintenance is replacing batteries, motors, wheels, and maybe…

And this is horrible for the market. A company gaining a huge advantage by getting a total monopoly over another market, which they can enforce due to having patents. That’s not what patents were supposed to create, and what Antitrust regulations were supposed to prevent. If this is the future, it’s quite a dystopia: Monopolies everywhere. Sure, I get that the Silicon Valley business model is to destroy regulation, g…

Patents over physical mechanisms are somewhat defensible IMHO. Generally they really do need to be innovative because physical processes are easier to understand (unlike software) and so they are harder to defend in court.

Additionally, from the article it looks like patents were only one reason no one else is as good - it seems more like no one else had tried to build anything like them.

Also, Amazon is generally seen as good for consumers - they force down prices like no one else. They might not be that great for warehouse employees though.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#36

Post by sschueller » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:14 AM UTC

kristofferR wrote: post #24

Komplett.no, which aims to become the Amazon of Norway (the real Amazon doesn't care about Norway), has a really cool automated warehouse (AutoStore) which seems even more advanced than Amazons: http://autostoresystem.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_O0UKARdLDc (360° video) http://www.tu.no/artikler/unik-video-bli-med-inn-i-kompletts... The packages still need to be packaged by hand though, but it seems like it…

I find autostore to be a much cleaner solution than the adhoc system amazon uses. With the amazon system you need a lot more space and staff to fill those shelves. In addition you have to be careful not to load them top heavy.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#37

Post by emj » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:16 AM UTC

jpeg_hero wrote: post #19

I thought Amazon was pulling back on Kiva. I thought I read somewhere that new warehouses were not using the Kiva systems.

This has been my view of Amazon+Kiva as well, there is obviously some problems with rolling out Kivas everywhere since little has happen. The problems I've seen stated are the big initial cost of deployment, like invest at least ~$1 billion to save $1.8 billion, this article also mention really flat floors. I also guess it's hard to iterate the design if you change all warehouses directly so to spread out the risks you go slow.

According to the article Amazon now have 30k Kiva robots and that in all of the US there are about 200k more warehouse workers since 2007.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#38

Post by andyjohnson0 » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:19 AM UTC

deegles wrote: post #4

Personally, I think it's a net benefit that the picking jobs are on their way out. I don't believe most people do it for fun! On the other hand, there's going to be short term turmoil as people scramble to find new jobs in an increasingly automated world.

"On the other hand, there's going to be short term turmoil as people scramble to find new jobs in an increasingly automated world."

Depends how short the "short term turmoil" is. If its 20+ years then it could blight an entire generation.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#39

Post by brc » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:24 AM UTC

kuschku wrote: post #25

Animats wrote: post #18

I'd wondered how Kiva's old customers were doing. Now we know. There really isn't a direct replacement for Kiva robots from another vendor. The great thing about Kiva robots is that they're quite simple and robust mechanically. They're a battery, motors, wheels, and a lift mechanism. They're completely interchangeable, and having one fail isn't a big deal. Maintenance is replacing batteries, motors, wheels, and maybe…

And this is horrible for the market. A company gaining a huge advantage by getting a total monopoly over another market, which they can enforce due to having patents. That’s not what patents were supposed to create, and what Antitrust regulations were supposed to prevent. If this is the future, it’s quite a dystopia: Monopolies everywhere. Sure, I get that the Silicon Valley business model is to destroy regulation, g…

A monopoly is a specific thing, not just an insult to a company you don't like.

Most monopolies can only be sustained through state intervention, which is why large government is more of a problem than large companies like Amazon.

This situation is fantastic for the consumer - companies competing to lower prices and increase service.

As the story says the market has responded quickly and the industry is growing, precisely how things are supposed to work.

Re: How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race

#40

Post by brc » Thu, Jun 30, 2016, 9:28 AM UTC

deegles wrote: post #4

Personally, I think it's a net benefit that the picking jobs are on their way out. I don't believe most people do it for fun! On the other hand, there's going to be short term turmoil as people scramble to find new jobs in an increasingly automated world.

The consumer surplus created by cheaper and faster goods will lead to people purchasing other products and services, which will create new types of jobs provided that nobody does anything stupid with regulation.

It's always been this way.

Besides the population of most countries is starting on the path to decline.