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Investing Returns on the S&P500

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Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#291

Post by gnaritas »

fedora_hat wrote: post #238
wernercd wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With an increase in immigration and a cheapening of robotic workers and kiosks... where is this decrease in unemployment and increase in labor-force participation going to come from? I mean, there is "always" going to be jobs for plumbers and spots for artisan made stuff... but those jobs aren't going to replace the amount of jobs that will be lost when $15 becomes more expensive than iRobot...

200 years most people farmed, 15 years ago SEO, apps, and YouTubers didn't exist either, yes YouTubers... News jobs are already being created.

> News jobs are already being created.

Not fast enough to replace the abolished ones, and most of those new jobs are knowledge work, which can't scale as there's a IQ floor that will stop most people from being able to work them. The more we shift to knowledge work, the higher unemployment will climb. You're making the mistake of thinking the past predicts the future, but today's automation is unprecedented, it will not follow the same pattern because it has different effects.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#292

Post by reddytowns »

xiaoma wrote: post #240
nerfhammer wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangent, but the US freight rail networks are much better than Europe. US is good at freight rail and bad at passenger service, Europe is vice versa.

Actually, I find Europe's passenger service uninspiring compared to Japan or especially Taiwan.

Taiwan's trains are subsidized

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#293

Post by gnaritas »

smelterdemon wrote: post #279
Redoubts wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That remains to be seen What would a more powerful USA look like? It doesn't appear that the country is after an empire the same way the British had one 100 years ago, so raw aggression is out. I can't imagine a realistic scenario that doesn't require the implosion of other nations to embiggen America.

Wealth is not a zero sum game.

That depends on how you generate it. When apple builds wealth, not zero sum; when a hedge fund builds wealth; zero sum. 40% of our economy is financial services now, there's a lot of zero sum wealth creation going on.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#294

Post by rrecuero »

I really like the write up & simplicity of the explanations. Obviously, choosing Vanguard Index funds and avoiding timing the market it is a great financial advice. One piece that I always find missing is that in my opinion, money is not worth the same as you age.

From my point of view, money in your 20s, 30s have 3x or 4x more value than when you are 50. You can go skydiving, scuba diving... When you are 60 your options to enjoy that money are much more limited. I think that should be factor in financial decisions that it is often overlooked

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#295

Post by tunesmith »

cesarbs wrote: post #247
tunesmith wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I brought up this chart as a counterpoint to the OP's graph in a separate discussion. The difference is that this one factors in "taxes and fees". In this chart, it says 1979-1999 is +8.2% per year. Using the OP's data source, 1979-1999 would be 12.464% (using https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ which uses the same Schiller data set). That's 4.2% per year obliterated by "taxes and fees". That seems excessive…

> and it's keeping people from investing in actually producing value for themselves and others. What do you mean?

Well, starting a business is a good example - doing the work to find an actual market opportunity and investing in it. Or, I could scrimp to put that money in the S&P, or I could invest in myself through further education.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#296

Post by gnaritas »

Retric wrote: post #27
stevenmays wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So at Year 1, we take every point on the S&P500 curve, look at every point on the S&P500 that's one year ahead, add in dividends and subtract inflation, and record all points as a relative gain or loss for Year 1. Point #3 is wrong.

While inflation was adjusted for it was not accurately adjusted for as it ignored taxes. If your returns are 10% and inflation is 10% you get taxed on that 10% and lose money. PS: Now if this is for 401k accounts or something that's another story.

> While inflation was adjusted for it was not accurately adjusted for as it ignored taxes. If your returns are 10% and inflation is 10% you get taxed on that 10% and lose money.

And if you'd just put the money in a mattress you're down 10%, far more than the loss of paying taxes on 10%.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#297

Post by fapjacks »

nerfhammer wrote: post #230
amaks wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US is far from finishing deveping, fortunately or unfortunately. Take trains, for example, area where US is far behind China, Japan, or European countries, despite the size of its territory. I'm sure there are other examples.

Tangent, but the US freight rail networks are much better than Europe. US is good at freight rail and bad at passenger service, Europe is vice versa.

But they don't need to be, really, when they can just put it on a boat for the whole journey, or most of the journey and then just truck it a few hours inland.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#298

Post by gnaritas »

charlesdm wrote: post #266
jgalt212 wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets are efficient because you cannot effectively predict how long emotion, greed, and irrationality will drive the bus before rationality once again prevails.

That makes no sense at all to me. How does that make them efficient?

Efficient essentially means random.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#299

Post by WillPostForFood »

velodrome wrote: post #234
amaks wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US is far from finishing deveping, fortunately or unfortunately. Take trains, for example, area where US is far behind China, Japan, or European countries, despite the size of its territory. I'm sure there are other examples.

Our infrastructure needs a lot of work ($4T dollars worth). Improving our infrastructure has a good ROI (GDP multiplier). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LKZQT6pv_oU/TBqKqQaCcaI/AAAAAAAAA6... http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/infrastructure/our-insigh... http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/grades/

The problem with infrastructure spending isn't that it doesn't potentially have a good ROI, it is that the process channels the money to wasteful projects that don't have a good ROI.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#300

Post by xiaoma »

reddytowns wrote: post #292
xiaoma wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, I find Europe's passenger service uninspiring compared to Japan or especially Taiwan.

Taiwan's trains are subsidized

So are Japan's. The idea isn't to get a profit off of tickets vs operating costs. The idea is to improve the efficiency of the country and economy. It's an investment.

If the US had a similar political climate the east coast would already have high speed rail from New York to Miami.

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