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Investing Returns on the S&P500

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Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#191

Post by dpc59 »

bduerst wrote: post #159
Redoubts wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That remains to be seen What would a more powerful USA look like? It doesn't appear that the country is after an empire the same way the British had one 100 years ago, so raw aggression is out. I can't imagine a realistic scenario that doesn't require the implosion of other nations to embiggen America.

Imperialism is alive and well today, it's just that it's less noticeable since total war has been infeasible since the atomic age.

Go tell that to people who live in Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, Palestine or Libya.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#192

Post by Evolved »

rando18423 wrote: post #183

Lots of talk in here concerning superpowers falling, and not much about how it's way more favorable for companies to use debt financing in a low interest rate environment... Lol developers should stick to developing

Who do you think created HFT (High Frequency Trading) systems? Surely bankers stick to banking but hire developers to give them that competitive edge. The odds are that software engineers would have come up with the idea of and implementation of, a working high frequency trading system before bankers would have despite banking probably not being a software engineer's specialty.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#193

Post by malz »

nostrademons wrote: post #132
greeneggs wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you do get taxed on dividends.

You do, but that's why dividends are becoming increasingly rare in the stock market. Many firms are preferring buybacks instead, which cause a pop in the stock price for remaining stockholders and so get taxed as capital gains.

I don't believe "dividends are becoming increasingly rare in the stock market". One measure of that is to compare the S&P 500 yield with treasury yield, the latter being near a historic low, but the S&P yield near a consistent 2% for over a decade, and quite attractive now relative to treasuries.

http://avondaleam.com/sp-500-dividend-vs-10-year-treasury-yi...

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#194

Post by jrockway »

known wrote: post #113

Just find out how to do insider trading without getting caught. This is even better :) "Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws." --Rothschild, 1744

Just buy a baseball bat and threaten to hit people if they don't give you their money. Way better returns than the stock market.

Of course, you won't be able to enjoy that money in prison.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#195

Post by jpeg_hero »

nostrademons wrote: post #138
VLM wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tuyere is a weird, tough, heat proof, somewhat hard to make (depending on your local technological level) compressed air nozzle. If there's a steel mill blast furnace nearby, you can make a fat stack of cash making and selling tuyeres. Its kind of a specialists metalworking job in that an idiot can make one that doesn't last and falls apart at the worst possible time causing thousands of dollars of missed productio…

Many information-age business models (SaaS, marketplaces, advertising & other grow-first-then-monetize consumer businesses) are even more dependent upon capital than their industrial-age predecessors, since they run at a loss until they completely saturate a market and then turn on the money spigot. They've just been going to the private markets rather than the public markets because the Information Age started with…

thats some of problem.

once they are a money spigot they don't need the capital market.

when they are money burning they are too risky for what we consider acceptable for a stock listing (though biotech seems to be an exception for some odd reason)

there are no 'safe' way to deploy capital that returns 6%

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#196

Post by lmickh »

ryandrake wrote: post #117
dceddia wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A little further down it shows graphs of a "typical investing timeline" from around age 20 to age 60. It still looks pretty solid.

Ahh, you're right. My comment is directly addressed in the article--that's what I get for skimming it. My only nit then would be that I don't know too many people in their 20s putting money into the stock market. Most people that age are spending every dollar they make on rent and their student loans. You're probably not in the position to "invest" until you have a professional job, well into your thirties.

Typical federal student debt payment is ~$300/mon assuming 6% interest, 10 year repayment, and >$30k of debt. With less than $35k income, that payment drops.

You have to make some really poor decisions about where you live to be spending every dollar on rent and student loans assuming you have a job that does not pay minimum wage.

Making investing a priority can be hard, but it is far from impossible at that age. Even a small amount early on will far out weigh a much larger amount invested later. It is important to communicate that instead of telling people they probably can't do it.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#197

Post by coupdetaco »

xiaoma wrote: post #184
jakozaur wrote: post #12

I don't think it is fair to say that next 100 years will be same as last 100 years: 1. GDP growth is not as high as it used to be anywhere in developed world: http://www.oecd.org/std/productivity-stats/oecd-compendium-o... 2. USA is superpower at the peak. Plenty of other stock market economies hasn't been so successful. E.g. Argentina used to be one of the richest country in the world. Investing in history is easy,…

> "anywhere in developed world" I hate this terminology. If the US has, in fact, "finished" developing, then the future of the S&P will be bleak. I don't think that's the case at all, though. I think development has just started and we'll see fantastic advances in bio-informatics, solar power, 3D printing and a number of other fields in the upcoming decades. When I was a teenager, I pirated music. I seriously hope my…

But we live in the best of all possible worlds!

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#198

Post by malz »

base698 wrote: post #160
hellofunk wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you're right 51% of the time when you invest you're going to get rich. Sorry, but this is completely incorrect. The approximate formula for success in investing or trading is "percentage right" * "average win profit" - "percentage wrong" * "average loss" = overall profit. Many traders are correct only 20% of the time (I'm looking at you, stock options traders) but make fortunes because they understand this formu…

Can confirm. Been trading options for 3 years, lose money on 90% of my trades, but still up 30% for the year. It's basic expected value, magnify your wins and minimize your loss to what you know you can lose.

So your counterparty makes money on 90% of his trades and is down 30% for the year? He must feel like a schmuck.

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#199

Post by wernercd »

clock_tower wrote: post #186
Redoubts wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That remains to be seen What would a more powerful USA look like? It doesn't appear that the country is after an empire the same way the British had one 100 years ago, so raw aggression is out. I can't imagine a realistic scenario that doesn't require the implosion of other nations to embiggen America.

> What would a more powerful USA look like? Passenger rail; durable houses; less unemployment and more labor-force participation; a population not balkanized along political/cultural lines.

With an increase in immigration and a cheapening of robotic workers and kiosks... where is this decrease in unemployment and increase in labor-force participation going to come from?

I mean, there is "always" going to be jobs for plumbers and spots for artisan made stuff... but those jobs aren't going to replace the amount of jobs that will be lost when $15 becomes more expensive than iRobot...

Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500

#200

Post by the_watcher »

I wouldn't say this is surprising. If you can extend your horizon, you can weather downturns that reduce your asset value, buy while demand is low, and simply wait for the cycle to reverse. Real estate shows the same pattern. The problem is that not everyone has the means to simply extend their horizon.
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