"Buy and Hold" applied to the S&P500 actually means "sell when an individual company loses enough market cap, buy one that has gained enough".
Investing Returns on the S&P500
81–90 of 357 posts
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#82Warren Buffett bet $1mm that S&P500 will outperform a hedge fund over a 10 year period.[1]
That's good enough for me, I'll follow the oracle.
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If you make a purchase of 100 shares of $FB, it could save you at least $800 for that sale. That's not how commissions work. They are per order, not per share.
Not completely accurate - while most brokers are per order, you can use a broker such as Interactive Brokers which charge per share (with a minimum).
Yes, at $0.005 per share. It's pretty obvious that $8 is going to be a per order commission.
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. If you're right 51% of the time when you invest you're going to get rich. Unfortunately the odds of you being right 51% of the time are incredibly low. 2. Heed Rule #1, and put most (if not all) of your money in broad market ETFs. 3. If you DO decide to actively invest, think about your strengths both in terms of character and industry knowledge and play to those. I don't know jack about healthcare and have had my…
"this is a zero-sum game" Minor quibble. That is not accurate. You see teenagers buying hotdogs with a credit card. Visa and Mastercard go public, you buy shares, it goes up, up, up. There's no zero sum here and people can spot special values without deep analysis.
You had to buy from someone. Even Visa loses out when going public because they could have offered at a higher price. So in that sense it is a zero sum game. You profit instead of Visa (or whomever the seller is).
There are, however, externalities that make it less costly for Visa to sell lower than the theoretical max. Happy investors are easier to manage, market momentum is strong, etc.
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#85If you want to run your own analysis about what retirement might look like for you, I recommend the extremely powerful http://cfiresim.com/
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#86Warren Buffett bet $1mm that S&P500 will outperform a hedge fund over a 10 year period.[1] That's good enough for me, I'll follow the oracle. [1] http://longbets.org/362/
This bet ends in less than 2 years. Does anybody know what would be the result if it would end now?
edit: I guess it depends on the detailed terms that they haven't disclosed, but educated guesses are fine
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ignorant question: Why ETFs rather than the equivalent mutual funds (which I think are usually available)? I have some sense of the differences, but I've never taken the time to figure out the pros and cons. (I've been investing mostly in index funds for the past 15 years or so; ETFs weren't really on my radar when I started.)
For most practical purposes, there's not much difference between ETFs and Mutual Funds. Some point out some greater risk in ETFs because they can lend their securities : http://www.etf.com/etf-education-center/21031-understanding-...
As other person pointed out, mutual funds are much more expensive.
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#88Looking at the discussions here I find it interesting that even in something as number driven as the stock market everybody argues about the meaning and the validity of the numbers. There really is no clear picture. But somehow the regular guy is supposed to navigate his way through this jungle of conflicting, confusing or meaningless numbers. And considering the long time frames most people don't have much opportuni…
1. If you're right 51% of the time when you invest you're going to get rich. Unfortunately the odds of you being right 51% of the time are incredibly low. 2. Heed Rule #1, and put most (if not all) of your money in broad market ETFs. 3. If you DO decide to actively invest, think about your strengths both in terms of character and industry knowledge and play to those. I don't know jack about healthcare and have had my…
"If you're right 51% of the time when you invest you're going to get rich."
I completely disagree with this statement and I've seen it (or a variation of it) many times over the years. You can have a win rate of 99%, but still lose money if the 1% losing trades/investments wipe out all your wins. The win rate isn't what people should be looking, but the profit expectancy. Other than that, I agree with what your are saying, particularly #2. I don't think the majority of people should be actively trading/investing, they don't have the time to build the expertise and will probably not invest the time in learning about their bias.
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. If you're right 51% of the time when you invest you're going to get rich. Unfortunately the odds of you being right 51% of the time are incredibly low. 2. Heed Rule #1, and put most (if not all) of your money in broad market ETFs. 3. If you DO decide to actively invest, think about your strengths both in terms of character and industry knowledge and play to those. I don't know jack about healthcare and have had my…
"this is a zero-sum game" Minor quibble. That is not accurate. You see teenagers buying hotdogs with a credit card. Visa and Mastercard go public, you buy shares, it goes up, up, up. There's no zero sum here and people can spot special values without deep analysis.
If you bought the shares after IPO, then someone sold them to you, and they missed out on all of those gains. Even in the IPO, it's very common that you're buying shares from insiders and private investors rather than from the company itself.
(But even if trading is zero-sum in a strict monetary sense, different risk preferences, desire to liquidate positions in order to buy something you value more, etc. mean that it's not zero-sum in a utility sense.)
Re: Investing Returns on the S&P500
#90If you want to run your own analysis about what retirement might look like for you, I recommend the extremely powerful http://cfiresim.com/
Wow that site's UI needs some work. Just the wordings are confusing with no explanation.