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Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

bbc.com

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Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#31

Post by jonwachob91 »

jabbernotty wrote: post #16
lordnacho wrote: post #7

I can say the vitriol after the result has been crazy. My FB has dozens and dozens of posts from Remoaners decrying the idiots, racists, and old people who dared to vote against their righteous interest. At least there's a bit of humour now that England have been booted out of the European Championship. And it's all come out AFTER the result. Before the result, I suppose people thought it would go to Remain, but also…

> the UK needs to trade with Europe, so they cannot ever really leave. Any deal done will end up looking like Switzerland Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality. I believe that the UK will have to leave, because the referendum is said to be binding. Going back on that would not be good for future voting or agreements. Swiss politicians did not, as far…

> I believe that the UK will have to leave, because the referendum is said to be binding.

It was a non-binding referendum.

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-result... [2] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887 [3] http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/73775/eu-referendum-is-the-b... [4] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/23/welcome-to-the-world-after-br...

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#32

Post by Oletros »

throwaway987611 wrote: post #27
airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I beg to differ. The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result. Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either. The UK is simply in a better…

> Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result.

Wishful thinking or do you have any source for this?

> The UK is simply in a better position than the EU. Now more than ever > Once all the smoke clears. Britian has a real chance to be more competitive than France or Germany and that scares the hell out of them!

I really like to live in that fantasy world

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#33

Post by snsr »

lordnacho wrote: post #7

I can say the vitriol after the result has been crazy. My FB has dozens and dozens of posts from Remoaners decrying the idiots, racists, and old people who dared to vote against their righteous interest. At least there's a bit of humour now that England have been booted out of the European Championship. And it's all come out AFTER the result. Before the result, I suppose people thought it would go to Remain, but also…

> Remoaners

Seriously?

> decrying the idiots, racists, and old people who dared to vote against their righteous interest

The people who voted to leave are, generally, xenophobic old people. And they did vote against their own best interests, as they tend to.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#34

Post by Oletros »

airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> Though to be fair, I would like to see a bit of compromise from the EU side of table. They are simply too intransigent.

intransigent in what? I remember that they offer a new deal with more concessions to UK before the referendum

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#35

Post by ikeboy »

I'm not too impressed by the logic of the first part about immigration.

>During the campaign, some Leave campaigners sent a clear message that the referendum was about controlling immigration. Some are now being more nuanced, saying the UK's decision to leave the EU would not guarantee a significant decrease in immigration levels.

Hm. So is it the same people and comparable claims? Let's see ...

>Nigel Farage said: "Mass immigration is still hopelessly out of control and set to get worse if we remain inside the EU."

>Similarly, leading pro-Leave campaigner and Tory leader front runner Boris Johnson said that the only solution to the scale of immigration which the UK was facing, was to leave the EU.

>But in an article published in the Daily Telegraph on Monday, Mr Johnson denied a victory for leaving the EU could be linked to immigration.

Um what? This is not at all inconsistent with the above statement. You can think that X is a good reason to leave the EU without thinking that most people who voted to leave did so because of X.

>He wrote: "It is said that those who voted Leave were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration. I do not believe that is so."

This is completely consistent with the previous statement.

They don't have any quote from Farage in that section, only from "MEP Daniel Hannan" who wasn't mentioned previously.

This reads as intentional misleading on the part of the BBC.

The rest of the article isn't much better. The bar for demonstrating hypocrisy or retraction at least requires the same people to make the claims and that the two claims aren't consistent. The BBC has not met it.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#36

Post by rimantas »

throwaway987611 wrote: post #27
airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I beg to differ. The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result. Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either. The UK is simply in a better…

  > Once all the smoke clears. Britian has a real chance to be
  > more competitive than France or Germany and that scares the
  > hell out of them!
To be competetive UK will need favourable trade terms. And that will cost dearly with a side benefit that UK won't have any say in EU matters.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#37

Post by Oletros »

jstanley wrote: post #28
simonh wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Switzerland held a referendum on stopping freedom of movement with the EU, which passed. The EU refused to even discuss it and the borders are still open and that's not going to change unless Switzerland wants to cancel all it's EU deals. Which isn't going to happen. Legally, referendums in the UK are advisory only.

> the borders are still open I'm not sure where you draw the line for this, but last time I went into Switzerland I had my passport checked at the border.

But there is no restriction to workers from UE, in this regard I think the OP talked about "the borders are open"

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#38

Post by wanda »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #11
airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> "is just a meme" Yeah, it's just a meme... just like we couldn't possibly trade in the EU without a trade deal is just a meme... or that all Leave campaigners are racist/stupid is just a meme...

If you think you can get a better deal than the one we have now, you are irrational or uninformed, if not stupid. You might get the same deal, but not a better one. It's just as irrational as an England supporter believing that England can win Euro 2016 after being knocked out.

The Leave campaign and the referendum have both been engineered to rid Britain of both UKIP and Euroscepticism, one way or the other. The only good thing that will result from Brexit will be the disappearance of Nigel Farage, who will no longer have a reason to exist.

Cameron has left article 50 inactive — more or less guaranteeing a Brexit trial period as far as the markets are concerned, and also guaranteeing a second referendum in the form of a Conservative leadership contest and subsequently a general election, with manifestos promising to initiate or cancel Brexit.

Worst case scenario, on a global scale, UK fares well and EU starts to crack — Leave campaign was right (against all the odds and math) and article 50 is triggered.

Best case scenario, UK fares badly, for EU it's business as usual, article 50 never activated, people vote for reformed Conservatives or Labour to cancel Brexit with landslide after people suffered with pricy food and clothing for months.

For a damage control strategy to handle the result of a fundamentally terrible decision — to ask the masses a question without a definition of a meaningful majority — it's actually not bad.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#39

Post by samdoidge »

rimantas wrote: post #36
throwaway987611 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I beg to differ. The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result. Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either. The UK is simply in a better…

> Once all the smoke clears. Britian has a real chance to be > more competitive than France or Germany and that scares the > hell out of them! To be competetive UK will need favourable trade terms. And that will cost dearly with a side benefit that UK won't have any say in EU matters.

The UK has a trade deficit with the EU. They will be hurting themselves, in a federation which contains some struggling economies as it is.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#40

Post by nvdk »

throwaway987611 wrote: post #27
airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I beg to differ. The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result. Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either. The UK is simply in a better…

The "eurocrats" are elected, there are elections for the eu parlement every 5 years. The 28 (soon 27) members of the european comission are proposed by the member states (eg their elected leaders) and approved by the european parlement. And finally the council of europe is made up of elected national ministers (per domain).

With regard to the rules: you would still have to comply to most of these rules to be part of the single market (which most leave proponents want to be). Studies from WTO and IMF have shown that not going that route (eg trading under WTO rules) would impact UK severely (up to 9% of the GPD). See for example https://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2016/051316.htm

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