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Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

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Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#81
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easy for Facebook to say, here's our actual engagement numbers because we have (nearly) perfect tracking! But from an outsider's perspective, say a journalist or a hedge fund bro, it's difficult to perform any truly rigorous analysis involving these unobservable behaviors. So people come up with proxies - Google Trends, polls, or if you're truly adventurous, credit card spend information. [1] Anyways, using prod…

Printing misleading charts and presenting as fact is often worse than printing nothing at all.

As the old Usenet maxim goes, the best way to prompt posting of a true claim is, occasionally, to post a false one.

(Doesn't always work. But often does. Or it turns out that the "false" one is justified. Happened to me, once.)

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We just want to preserve our culture" is the loudest racial dog-whistle I know. It's been around since Jim Crow and it looks like it's not going away any time soon.

Just because something can be a racial dog-whistle doesn't mean that it's wrong or that it's always motivated by racism. I'm a Hispanic-American, the first generation born in America, and I'll be casting my ballot for Mr. Trump. Here's my reasoning. Immigration has to be at levels, under conditions, and from cultures that are conducive to assimilation. I don't think we have that today, and what's being proposed by th…

You're right racial comments are not necessarily wrong, but I think you're wrong to vote for Trump.

Just to avoid using very loaded words like "racist", I'm going to say I think we're all "culturist" to varying extents, which means we like people culturally like ourselves. We use race (or sometimes religion) as a proxy for this, because it's simpler - note that it tends to be the less articulate who do this. But actually it's having the same values, the same social habits and ceremonies and the same language to share them that binds us. Put another way, a black person who absorbs enough white culture is acceptable enough to be voted president; and a white person who absorbs black culture (Eminem) is viewed with suspicion by many white people. It's not the colour - it's the culture.

If you and I were not culturists, we'd probably look at immigration and say that there was an optimal size for a society inhabiting a particular part of the world, and we'd welcome people until we hit the limit. As with any population, some of those people would be a net drain on our society, and some would be a net asset.

In fact it's a lot better than that - numerous studies have found that immigrants tend on average to be far more productive than the population they are joining, and it makes perfect sense because by definition they had the vision, energy and resources to leave their old lives behind. I'm guessing you are a prime example of this. And it is this exact effect that made the US such a powerhouse - in the early 1900s they absorbed millions of the worlds brightest and best who then built the miracle that was 1950/60s America. Then they started putting the breaks on immigration, and... oh dear, the economy is faltering! Why ever could that be?

So it's generally accepted that immigration is not actually a serious problem, and it is only the most culturist and least successful members of our society who think it is because it gives them a convenient excuse for their circumstances. And any politician that tries to whip up support by shouting "immigrants are causing all our problems" automatically loses my respect because the argument is a fallacy, and they know it, but it's the oldest trick in the book to get the less fortunate to support you.

History is littered with politicians who used immigrants as scapegoats, and in every case it did not go well. Do you really want to vote for someone using the same tactics that Fascists used to get into power? And even if you decide immigration is a big enough issue for you, are you sure you want to support all his other policies? You really want to waste huge amounts of your country's resources building a totally ineffective wall? You really want to start profiling large segments of the population - a favourite tool of the most repressive regimes in history? And do you really want the US military to be at the whim of someone who loses his temper when a minor court case goes against him? You're going to vote for someone who promises he's squeaky clean but is the only candidate to refuse to release his tax records? Please use (or don't use) your vote wisely.

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We just want to preserve our culture" is the loudest racial dog-whistle I know. It's been around since Jim Crow and it looks like it's not going away any time soon.

Are you the same type of person who accuses people of cultural appropriation? Does it exist or not? Is culture something worth cherishing and preserving and experiencing or is it too tribal for the modern era? I had a great trip overseas recently. I loved being in a different place and in a different culture. I hope the people of that place continue their traditions because I want others to experience it as well. I w…

I think the way the recipe goes is something like this: any non-dominant culture is unique and worth preserving (however, it may not be appropriated by outsiders) and any dominant culture is not only oppressive by nature but not worth preserving (should be diluted) except where its philosophy is to prefer non-dominant culture --and it may be appropriated, most naturally.

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#84
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure you'll be regretting that vote. Edit: If Trump has attacked an American-born judge of Mexican heritage then I'm sure you're next.

So I should vote for the other side that reflexively calls me racist and bigoted whenever I don't agree with them? The side that takes innocent cops that were defending their lives and ruins their careers and lives, so that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton can advance theirs? The side that has forced colleges to lower the standard of evidence in college sexual assault cases, so young men can have their lives ruined by a…

No, you don't have to vote for the other side. But you're definitely voting for someone who is obviously going to be a poor leader. And he's demonstrated poor judgement over and over again. All the signs are out there but you choose to ignore them because you hate the other side so much. I cannot understand how a Hispanic can vote for someone who is so anti-Hispanic among other things. Are you HOPING that it's all an act? Really? This election is not a trick question. Many in the GOP have rejected him. Does that not count for anything?

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#85
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because something can be a racial dog-whistle doesn't mean that it's wrong or that it's always motivated by racism. I'm a Hispanic-American, the first generation born in America, and I'll be casting my ballot for Mr. Trump. Here's my reasoning. Immigration has to be at levels, under conditions, and from cultures that are conducive to assimilation. I don't think we have that today, and what's being proposed by th…

You're right racial comments are not necessarily wrong, but I think you're wrong to vote for Trump. Just to avoid using very loaded words like "racist", I'm going to say I think we're all "culturist" to varying extents, which means we like people culturally like ourselves. We use race (or sometimes religion) as a proxy for this, because it's simpler - note that it tends to be the less articulate who do this. But actu…

There's nothing wrong with liking your culture and wanting to preserve it, with wanting it to succeed. If that makes me a "culturalist" or "culturist" or whatever, then I'll wear the label proudly. When my family moved to this country, they decided to become Americans. That doesn't mean abandoning your heritage, or forgetting it--I love Cuban food, poetry, music, history, and humor--but it does mean embracing the society you moved to and raising your children in its values. Some of what we brought will seep into general American culture, and the rest will be relegated to the history books within a couple generations. That's the melting pot.

Mass migration to Europe from the Middle East is an unmitigated disaster, even before the current refugee crisis. France in particular is a good example of what can really go wrong with unmanaged immigration. You have second and third generation Muslims becoming more fundamentalist than their parents, developing incredible animosity toward the rest of France (and receiving it too). Without pointing fingers at whose fault it is, the French or the immigrants, it's a total disaster for both. It frankly doesn't matter whose fault it is, it should have never been allowed to happen. I'm incredibly alarmed that the left in America is totally and willfully blind to those risks. They call you racist and shout you down if you dare challenge them. They're promising to bring in hundreds of thousands of people from the Middle East. It will be millions if it goes the way of other promises that the American people have gotten on immigration.

We need to be very careful. We should accept the best and brightest from these countries. But we cannot repeat the horrible mistake that the Europeans have made.

Uncontrolled mass migration is new to America. For the first sixty years of the Republic, there was almost no immigration. Then until the early 1920s, immigration was mostly restricted to Europeans, who already had a great deal in common culturally with Americans. Then from the early 20s until the 1965 Immigration Act, there were strict quotas imposed per country-of-origin that slowed immigration to a trickle. (Though mass illegal immigration does predate the 1965 act by a few years, I believe.)

>And it is this exact effect that made the US such a powerhouse - in the early 1900s they absorbed millions of the worlds brightest and best who then built the miracle that was 1950/60s America. Then they started putting the breaks on immigration, and... oh dear, the economy is faltering! Why ever could that be?

The mass migration from Mexico into the US is not the brightest and most talented, it's Mexican peasants. There's nothing wrong with being a Mexican peasant, and I wish the best for them. The ones who are now my countrymen deserve the same consideration and acceptance as any American. But America does not need to import millions of peasants. They're a total mismatch for what our country needs, which is high-skill labor. We have enough low-skill workers that can't find jobs. I don't see how we benefit from adding more. Especially people with very low expectations for wages and the employer-employee relationship. Mexican poverty is Mexico's problem. Why do we need to make it America's problem too? We have our own problems to solve.

No one thinks the economy is faltering because we're not allowing enough immigration from Mexico. The idea is frankly a little ridiculous.

It didn't have to be this way. The American people have been making their views on this uncontrolled migration, on the wink-wink approach to illegal immigration in particular, very clear for a long time. They were sold a massive amnesty in 1986 in exchange for increased enforcement. It was a great humanitarian act, worthy of a great nation. It also ended up being a total and brazen lie by the politicians. The Democrats are happy to keep importing voters and the Republicans are happy to importing cheap labor. All while swindling the people. Time's up.

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#87
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I should vote for the other side that reflexively calls me racist and bigoted whenever I don't agree with them? The side that takes innocent cops that were defending their lives and ruins their careers and lives, so that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton can advance theirs? The side that has forced colleges to lower the standard of evidence in college sexual assault cases, so young men can have their lives ruined by a…

No, you don't have to vote for the other side. But you're definitely voting for someone who is obviously going to be a poor leader. And he's demonstrated poor judgement over and over again. All the signs are out there but you choose to ignore them because you hate the other side so much. I cannot understand how a Hispanic can vote for someone who is so anti-Hispanic among other things. Are you HOPING that it's all an…

We don't always get easy choices but I refuse to abdicate my responsibility to make the best choice for my country, even if it means swallowing some of my reservations. The other side has nominated an unprincipled criminal who has shown utter contempt for accountability in the course of her public service. Not to mention that I share about 0-5% of her policy views.

Aside from the whole judge debacle, which I concede can be seen that way, I don't see any evidence that Trump is anti-Hispanic. It's a nice narrative for the other side, because it turns off any thinking about the substance.

The GOP is unfortunately full of people who are more interested in abiding by liberal PC pieties, more interested in not being called racist, more interested in staying in power, than they are in actually delivering for their voters and for the American people. The Romney's and Bush's of the world just offer a slow-motion surrender instead of an overnight loss. Sometimes that's all you can get and it's better than nothing. Trump offered the base a chance to go all in. Despite his weaknesses, it's probably as good a timing as we will ever get.

Like I said in my topmost comment here, there's also the plain fact that many of these Republicans don't share the world view of the wing of the party that Trump represents. American parties are big tents with lots of room for ideological diversity. In countries with proportional systems, politicians have to negotiate with multiple parties to get a majority in Parliament. In America, that fight happens in the People.

Also, look, Trump is divisive obviously. He might win, but he's very controversial and has generated a lot of animosity, because he slaughters everyone's sacred cows. If he loses, some think it could damage the Republican brand for a long time, especially if our politically-correct culture continues down its current path. A lot of Republicans are trying to hedge their bets, to prevent another long-term calamity like the fallout from Goldwater's loss. I disagree with them, but I see where they're coming from.

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#88
Thank you very much for writing this. The staggering smugness I saw, and continue to see, from Reddit threads about how people that voted leave most be slack jawed morons who don't even know what the EU is made me really frustrated. Apparently divisive rhetoric and a sane discourse on politics isn't possible on either side of the aisle (or the Atlantic for that matter.)

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#89
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I should vote for the other side that reflexively calls me racist and bigoted whenever I don't agree with them? The side that takes innocent cops that were defending their lives and ruins their careers and lives, so that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton can advance theirs? The side that has forced colleges to lower the standard of evidence in college sexual assault cases, so young men can have their lives ruined by a…

No, you don't have to vote for the other side. But you're definitely voting for someone who is obviously going to be a poor leader. And he's demonstrated poor judgement over and over again. All the signs are out there but you choose to ignore them because you hate the other side so much. I cannot understand how a Hispanic can vote for someone who is so anti-Hispanic among other things. Are you HOPING that it's all an…

>anti-Hispanic

Citation needed. He's talked a lot about limiting Mexico's free access to free movement of people. This disproportionately affects Mexico and Mexicans, and their media reflects it!

Having gone through immigration ordeals, it's a slap in the face to embrace illegal immigration. I put up with the law, and it hurts me[1]. Others just say fuck it, run across, and that's supposed to be OK? Or more ridiculously, saying it's not OK is racist?

For every other country that's not Mexico, stemming Mexican immigration is a boon. Of course his words are spun to make people offended. I spoke to one woman here (Guatemala) who said "But he hates people like me". But when asked, she couldn't say why, she had just heard reports. After showing what he really said, she no longer believed it.

Oh, and immigration laws south of the US are a lot harsher than the US! My daughter's a Canadian-American in Guatemala. Since she doesn't have her GT passport, if she tries to leave the country, she owes a $4000 fine for being here illegally[2]. Imagine the backlash if the US imposed exit fines on such immigrants! I only point this out to highlight the absolute hypocrisy when these countries complain about US policies.

Let's face it: A huge chunk of the world population would jump at the chance to live in the US. Their countries would also love that, as remittances are a huge business. (Mexico gets what, $2BN a month? That's perhaps 1-2M households being supported?) If the US needs immigration, then they should do so in a fair-to-everyone way, not in a way that lets people get hurt, forces illegal crossings, allows Mexico to stop non-Mexicans from making the attempt, etc. And this also selects for "not the best people". The professional people I know in Latam would never dream of visa overstay, let alone illegal crossings. The ones I do know that gone illegally might be nice people, but they're hardly the top talent the US can attract.

People need to stop being hysterical, stop worrying about looking bad, and actually examine fairness and data to determine policy. Being anti-illegal-immigration is not racist by any means, and insisting so will just result in being ignored.

1: My daughter was killed indirectly due to immigration law forcing us to go to a poor country with junk healthcare.

2: Yes I can sort it out for probably half that amount. But the point remains.

Re: Inappropriate Uses of Google Trends

#90
post #3

I'm glad this was written and has more historical examples than just Brexit. I could imagine a good portion of the questions could be originating from students. If a large political or economic event happens, it's not unlikely for classrooms teachers to task their students to understand what's happening. Search is the obvious first step for that. Even more broadly, and in line with the article, extrapolating from a s…

Forget students even, I'm an adult with a compulsive information-seeking habit, as I suspect a lot of other HN readers are. I know who Harriet Tubman is, but I don't know all there is to know about her, so on the date that her $20 bill debut was announced I Googled her and read parts of her Wikipedia article, the same way I am constantly doing for all sorts of current event topics. How can wanting to learn more possi…

> Would we rather have a situation where a big influential vote affecting the future of an entire nation comes up and no one does any research about it?

The key there is that the research is happening after the vote. They story being told about searches is wrong, but if it was true it would be notable.

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