Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU? • Hacker News Board

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#31

Post by alkonaut » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:50 AM UTC

seanalltogether wrote: post #9

The UK has a mandate from the people to leave the EU. Attempting to block the brexit over technicalities in Unionist agreements is a weak position for any politician to take. If the SNP believes they can successfully build a new mandate from the Scottish people to leave the UK, that would be a position of strength and they should work with that.

> The UK has a mandate from the people to leave the EU.

The question no one seems to have thought to answer until now, is whether Boris or any other politician has a mandate to dissolve the UK in order to do so. Does anyone believe that if the vote had been "Should England leave the UK and the EU" it would have won majority?

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#32

Post by rando444 » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:50 AM UTC

throwaway987611 wrote: post #11

No. Sturgeon is just playing up to her base. Scotland is effectively a one party system, which is quite dangerous, never mind that the common man/woman do not see this. The consequences for leaving the UK are well known. Companies aren't going to stay in because of Europe. They are going to move over the border. Also. The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt. Will the EU bail ou…

The notion that Scottish companies would move to England is absurd. Surely you must realize the difference (especially in size) between the EU and English marketplace.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#33

Post by hmmdiggy » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:50 AM UTC

hollander wrote: post #20

How to get out of this mess: quit with this government, call for new elections. Then you make it an election subject: will we follow the referendum or not?! The referendum is advisory, not legally binding. So they can ignore it. If the new elections are clear and people vote 55% to stay in - it's a clear cut case.

> Then you make it an election subject

It was one of the main election subjects back in May 2015 to whether to hold the referendum or not. Making whether to follow through another election subject would be wasteful considering leave has the majority.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#34

Post by broodbucket » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:50 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

Scotland can't leave the UK and remain in the EU. They would have to become independent and then begin the application process, which could take years. There's a real possibility that some EU members will oppose their application.

EDIT:

"UK Government could use Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty to apply for a treaty change which would allow Scotland to become a member when it formally becomes independent in 2016.

The Article 48 route has been dismissed by the UK Government and it would also require unanimous approval of all the other 28 EU members. Instead the more likely route is Article 49 which requires Scotland to apply for membership."

This is just from some light Googling, some more informed people may have more details

from http://www.scotsman.com/scottish-independence/key-topic/euro...

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#35

Post by broodbucket » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

Nursie wrote: post #30

alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

NI, despite voting remain, is very unlikely to want to leave the UK. Scotland 'remaining' in the EU is far from a done deal, we have yet to hear whether the EU would accept it - it has no record of running its own economy to speak of.

It does raise some new issues, as there is now an unpoliced border between EU and non-EU in Ireland.

(and by now I mean soon)

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#36

Post by lhnz » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

Will it matter to Scotland's goal of joining the EU after getting independence from the UK that they would have the worst deficit in the developing world [0] and have, in the past, only been a net contributor to the UK economy in three of the last fifteen years [1]?

It seems to me that the EU might require Scotland to make huge cuts to public spending. Would Scotland's independence be worth more to them than say free university tuition? I guess the SNP would avoid making cuts to certain nationally loved items, but something would surely have to give; either they would get higher taxes, or public spending would have to fall.

Of course, the EU might agree to let them remain and also allow them their deficit, but there looks to be an increasing strain on the EU's richest members, so who knows whether that would be allowed.

[0] http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/if-scotland-had-gone-in...

[1] http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/simple-summary.html

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#37

Post by ProfChronos » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

Obviously they won't force the UK into staying in the EU but that's definitely not what's important here. They are just starting UK's internal discrepancies which could seriously damage the union and Westminster won't be able to do much about it. England is already a well developed country which can't accept to be under the EU's power, while Scotland and others know that they're path to economic prosperity leads to the EU and its package of regulations and standards. As they France, Germany and the EU Commission likely to be tough on the UK, they are doing everything they can to stop the future bleeding. All this in one brilliant graphics: http://i64.tinypic.com/1zdu79u.jpg

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#38

Post by pluteoid » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

hollander wrote: post #20

How to get out of this mess: quit with this government, call for new elections. Then you make it an election subject: will we follow the referendum or not?! The referendum is advisory, not legally binding. So they can ignore it. If the new elections are clear and people vote 55% to stay in - it's a clear cut case.

As things stand, Cameron will be replaced by a new Conservative leader in October who will be under pressure to call a general election more or less immediately (without the present mess we were not due another one until 2020). The Liberal Democrats, our third largest party, have pledged to run an election campaign based on nullifying the Brexit vote. So it seems what you propose is going to happen, but unfortunately the "Illiberal Undemocrats" are an unpopular choice for a wide variety of reasons...

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#39

Post by hmmdiggy » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:52 AM UTC

abpavel wrote: post #18

Any outcome other than UK leaving the EU would go against democratically elected decision, in essence suspending democracy.

This is also my opinion, but for those downvoting/greying this comment could you elaborate why you disagree?

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#40

Post by learnstats2 » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:54 AM UTC

Nursie wrote: post #27

learnstats2 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the UK won't let Scotland use the pound" was an extremely effective argument that probably won the last referendum. But you're going to need a new one: the euro just became a lot more credible than the pound as a currency for Scotland.

There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on. I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.

Although I have no reason to believe that the EU wouldn't accept Scotland on this basis, a fresh accession might require the agreement of 27 countries.

There was a question last time about whether Scotland would automatically inherit EU membership or would have to apply for accession. IIRC, the EU wouldn't answer the question directly because Westminster refused to ask them. I'm guessing Nicola Sturgeon might be keen for this question to be cleared up.