Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU? • Hacker News Board

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#21

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:45 AM UTC

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc.

This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carries with it the implication that a direct democratic mandate, to leave the EU, is ignored.

If this occurs we can expect politics in the UK to become dangerously divided and unsettled, and the likes of UKIP to become a seriously large party in the next parliament, not to mention civil unrest in various forms.

The people that voted leave already feel left behind and ignored by the state. Explicitly ignoring them and finding a way to work around their democratically expressed opinion is likely to be a really BAD idea.

--edit-- I notice the points attached to this post going up and down. To those downvoting, can you tell me where/why you disagree?

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#22

Post by kriro » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:46 AM UTC

I feel it is usually assumed somewhat nonchalantly that the Scots could split off as an independent nation. One signal of the Brexit vote is that nationalists (or empireists) will be represented stronger in future elections. I can see a (neo-imperialistic) future where it is in the interest of England to not let anyone split off and fight for that with all means. I think the hardline will be Northern Ireland but strategically speaking it would make sense to not allow precedent and keep Scotland in.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#23

Post by ubernostrum » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:46 AM UTC

Tepix wrote: post #3

The old rule applies: If the headline ends with a question mark, the answer is "no".

It's more "does Scotland offer a face-saving way out of triggering Article 50 and exiting the EU". The answer to that may be yes.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#24

Post by alkonaut » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly.

If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining, not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b) a referendum for the new conditions could be held.

So the Scottish Parliament don't really need to veto Brexit to stop it, they just need to threaten to leave the UK and remain in the EU to d oso.

The new conditions of Brexit (which really were known before but likely not phrased as such) are "Should England and Wales leave the UK and form the United Kingdom of England and Wales, and then leave the EU?". I doubt that's a very popular idea.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#25

Post by coldtea » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

tallanvor wrote: post #19

seanalltogether wrote: post #9

The UK has a mandate from the people to leave the EU. Attempting to block the brexit over technicalities in Unionist agreements is a weak position for any politician to take. If the SNP believes they can successfully build a new mandate from the Scottish people to leave the UK, that would be a position of strength and they should work with that.

The referendum was non-binding. While a majority of those who voted said leave, the role of the government is to do what's best for their country and their people, and that's not always going to correspond to what a majority says should be done.

It was also no joke.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#26

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

tallanvor wrote: post #19

seanalltogether wrote: post #9

The UK has a mandate from the people to leave the EU. Attempting to block the brexit over technicalities in Unionist agreements is a weak position for any politician to take. If the SNP believes they can successfully build a new mandate from the Scottish people to leave the UK, that would be a position of strength and they should work with that.

The referendum was non-binding. While a majority of those who voted said leave, the role of the government is to do what's best for their country and their people, and that's not always going to correspond to what a majority says should be done.

[deleted]

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#27

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

learnstats2 wrote: post #17

throwaway987611 wrote: post #11

No. Sturgeon is just playing up to her base. Scotland is effectively a one party system, which is quite dangerous, never mind that the common man/woman do not see this. The consequences for leaving the UK are well known. Companies aren't going to stay in because of Europe. They are going to move over the border. Also. The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt. Will the EU bail ou…

"the UK won't let Scotland use the pound" was an extremely effective argument that probably won the last referendum. But you're going to need a new one: the euro just became a lot more credible than the pound as a currency for Scotland.

There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on.

I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#28

Post by pja » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:47 AM UTC

No, but they can make thinks extremely awkward & almost certainly use it as leverage to exit the UK if they really want to.

(Betteridge’s Law applies?)

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#29

Post by ubernostrum » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:48 AM UTC

throwaway987611 wrote: post #11

No. Sturgeon is just playing up to her base. Scotland is effectively a one party system, which is quite dangerous, never mind that the common man/woman do not see this. The consequences for leaving the UK are well known. Companies aren't going to stay in because of Europe. They are going to move over the border. Also. The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt. Will the EU bail ou…

The consequences for leaving the UK are well known.

The consequences for leaving the EU were well-known and kicked in within hours of the votes being tallied last week, but didn't stop the English from voting to do it anyway. And if we're going to allow the English to be that reckless on the basis of a single simple-majority vote, I don't see why we oughtn't let the Scots do the same.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#30

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 9:49 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

NI, despite voting remain, is very unlikely to want to leave the UK.

Scotland 'remaining' in the EU is far from a done deal, we have yet to hear whether the EU would accept it - it has no record of running its own economy to speak of.