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To Stay or Not to Stay

jacquesmattheij.com

51–60 of 69 posts

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#51
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

Please take a look at how the Swiss are doing outside the EU. They have no oil, just their financial industry. Actually that's quite similar to the UK, just that the UK is much stronger in many other areas too. I suspect that the UK will do really well outside the EU. Edit: Has anyone here even considered that it might be the EU that will break up long before the UK? As I see it the next time Turkeys dictator Erdogan…

> Every article written that suggests that [...] all who have voted for Brexit are stupid racist...

Not all, but apparently the majority of them... Google stats are the proof.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24...

https://twitter.com/GoogleTrends/status/746303118820937728?r...

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#52

As a yank, this issue is none of my business. As long as the people are voting, there is a feedback and correction system in place, I try not to worry about the internal affairs of allies. Having said that, I am quite taken back by all the drama I'm hearing on my social feeds. It looks completely beyond the normal angst you would see in a nation changing its treaty status. I didn't hear this kind of emotion when deci…

>As a yank, this issue is none of my business. As long as the people are voting, there is a feedback and correction system in place, I try not to worry about the internal affairs of allies.

You've no idea how nice it is to read somebody talking about this situation with a level head.

> Having said that, I am quite taken back by all the drama I'm hearing on my social feeds.

The media have stirred up the general public in the UK to levels of crazy I've not witnessed since Tony Blair and the weapons of mass destruction.

I'm not on Facebook but my partner is, and the amount of emotion and spats she's witnessed on there have forced her to seriously consider closing her account. She's a self confessed Facebook addict, and just can't handle the amount of noise and vitriol. People are genuinely losing their minds over here.

It's impossible to have a meaningful discussion with pretty much anybody about the situation. Everyone has a very emotional stance, hardly anybody has facts to reference their arguments by.

> Whatever they do -- and I hear now that maybe they'll vote to go back

Despite the 2m people who have signed a meaningless petition, there's no going back. I hope people here now invest their time and efforts in making this work and coming together as a nation, rather than continuing to bitch and moan at one another - all the while freaking out about the fall of GB.

The UK has been through much worse than this. Like most things in life, the outcome won't be as good (or as bad) as those on either side would have us believe.

I'd like to think one thing we have learned is not to trust the media - but I doubt it.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#53
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

Please take a look at how the Swiss are doing outside the EU. They have no oil, just their financial industry. Actually that's quite similar to the UK, just that the UK is much stronger in many other areas too. I suspect that the UK will do really well outside the EU. Edit: Has anyone here even considered that it might be the EU that will break up long before the UK? As I see it the next time Turkeys dictator Erdogan…

I hope that you and all the other people that are happy for the referendum outcome will feel the consequences directly on their skin. If you still don't understand that this is the beginning of a crisis comparable to the 2008 one I don't have much more to say. Maybe the articles you mentioned are not so wrong if there are people that can't see simple consequences based on facts.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#54

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

The FTSE lost 3.15% in a single day while it triggered a massive destruction of European stock markets. The pound arrived to 1.33$, it was never at that level since 1985. 2000 people are being relocated from Morgan Stankey to Dublin or Frankfurt. Pretty much all the other banks are following the same plans. The financial services sector contributes for around 11% of the whole government tax income. Car industry is he…

> The damage to the UK and global economy will be huge

I agree - the short term damage to the UK and global economy has been significant. That's confidence being shot down overnight, and the markets reacting accordingly.

> Even worse the uk won't secure any trade deal with Europe because they will want to discourage other nations to follow the same path.

Really? Come on now. You're telling me that European countries will stop selling to the UK?

Nobody really knows how this is going to unfold but it's not going to be doom any more than it's going to be a huge success. In the meantime please stop spreading hyperbole about how the sky is falling.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#55
post #26

My prediction: politicians and bureaucrats will spend 2 years producing tens of thousands of pages of new laws and new trade agreements and very little will actually change. Except for the tens of thousands of pages of new laws and trade agreements. EU laws are basically incomprehensible currently, and the U.K. already has special relationships with the rest of the EU, like the separate currency, not being part of Sc…

The same as before BUT without the weight that UK had in the decisions of the EU (and that nice veto power it had).

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#56
There's one interesting detail regarding tradesman that I only learned of yesterday by our boiler engineer who paid us a visit. In Northern Ireland (and maybe Scotland) many of the trades jobs have higher requirements for being licensed. The trades industry here is more insulated. In England however, licensing comes more easily and has fewer requirements for maintaining status. Immigration has had a very big effect in England that many people were ignoring, because the barrier to entry in these trades jobs was very low.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#57
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not as well as we were already doing within the EU, for a discounted membership fee. A discount that we will now have to concede in a future deal, and that will likely be finalised after a nice recession. Meanwhile, London will lose its significance as the gateway for passporting to Frankfurt. All the prosperity built up since 2008 has been erased for the sake of what were ostensibly lies. I implore US citizens: do n…

"honestly telling everybody that our financial stability and indeed prosperity since the financial crisis of 2008 is much thanks to EU membership and 'passporting' through the City of London while the EU paid for the economically weaker, rural regions." Why should the working class be happy with this? The benefits to EU membership accrued to the connected classes in the big cities. The subsidies provided to these reg…

Like I said, the government failed, not the EU. The Vote Leave campaigners used EU as a scapegoat. The likes of Boris Johnson need to be punished for lying to the electorate and for whatever financial problems are now around the corner.

Brexit is a way for particular individuals to gain influence and power within their lifetimes and to duck the blows of a working-class which, when Labour was strong, would have made them pay for the Tory disregard for the rural and/or low-income electorate.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#58
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO all the drama is not over the significance of the vote itself but rather what it might portend: * The end of the UK (not all parts voted to leave) * The end of the EU (starts a domino effect for other withdrawals) * The rise of the political right in Europe, and what that means for upcoming elections * The rise of populism worldwide, and what that means for the US election * Instability in financial markets due t…

Friday I finally asked some friends on FB to explain it to me. The answer I got was that this was a symbol that is related to a lot of other issues people care about, both overseas and at home. So the thing itself is not as important as what it might symbolize or portend. I think this agrees with what you list. Still, my interest is in free countries peacefully deciding how they want to govern themselves. Much more t…

I like your view of it as a beta. I've talked about this brexit as a "refactoring".

The EU is a code base that grew quickly and accrued a great deal of cruft in a short amount of time. The UK is simply taking their module of functions and breaking them out of the spaghetti EU behemoth. Rather than tight coupling to the rest of the EU code base, they'll be creating new and specific interfaces.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FTSE lost 3.15% in a single day while it triggered a massive destruction of European stock markets. The pound arrived to 1.33$, it was never at that level since 1985. 2000 people are being relocated from Morgan Stankey to Dublin or Frankfurt. Pretty much all the other banks are following the same plans. The financial services sector contributes for around 11% of the whole government tax income. Car industry is he…

> The damage to the UK and global economy will be huge I agree - the short term damage to the UK and global economy has been significant. That's confidence being shot down overnight, and the markets reacting accordingly. > Even worse the uk won't secure any trade deal with Europe because they will want to discourage other nations to follow the same path. Really? Come on now. You're telling me that European countries…

There will be no free market is different from stop selling. China is not part of the EU market but there are huge trades between EU and China.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#60

>>Right or wrong, it doesn’t matter, there are a lot of people in the UK that feel that ‘the foreigners took their jobs’, or that refugees are the kind of people that there simply isn’t room for. It’s a tough problem, but I highly doubt that this problem is large enough to isolate a country over from its main trade partners. Unfortunately, it doesn't matter whether immigration has a net positive effect on employment,…

It's simply not true, unemployment today is 5.4%, practically the same as 2008, and lower than US 5.5%.
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