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To Stay or Not to Stay

jacquesmattheij.com

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Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#41

Post by Bromskloss »

squidi wrote: post #16
reitanqild wrote: post #2

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

The catastrophe that people are mostly worried about is the impact of Britain leaving on the EU, not just to Britain. It is a key member of the EU and it's exit could be very destabilising for trade and investment throughout the region. On the global scale, not too many people will benefit in the next 5-10 years, maybe Britain will though (who knows for sure).

Why do we have to stop trading with Great Britain because they leave the EU?

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#42

Post by dingaling »

RBerenguel wrote: post #4
reitanqild wrote: post #2

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

> Norway is a huge oil exporter.

Huge?

Norway's export of crude oil and gas in 2015 ( 450 billion krone ) is equivalent to about £40 billion. Which puts them somewhere in the teens in terms of export scoreboard, behind the UAE.

http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/expor...

That's less than four month's worth of the UK's exports to non-EU countries alone ( £25 billion per month, about 52% to non-EU ).

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatisti...

And UK oil and gas extraction is about half of that of Norway, so they're not too sluggish there either.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#43

Post by bryanlarsen »

It must have seemed like a good idea at the time... It must have seemed like a good idea at the time.

Even if Cameron figured that remain would win, he surely knew that the results would be close, that nothing would be actually be settled definitively. OTOH, a narrow win for leave may actually be definitive unless they manage to avoid brexiting somehow.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#44

Post by tigershark »

reitanqild wrote: post #2

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

The FTSE lost 3.15% in a single day while it triggered a massive destruction of European stock markets. The pound arrived to 1.33$, it was never at that level since 1985. 2000 people are being relocated from Morgan Stankey to Dublin or Frankfurt. Pretty much all the other banks are following the same plans. The financial services sector contributes for around 11% of the whole government tax income. Car industry is heading in the same direction. Even worse the uk won't secure any trade deal with Europe because they will want to discourage other nations to follow the same path. The damage to the uk and global economy will be huge, comparable to the 2008 crisis if not even worse. And finally UK has nothing to do with Norway, a country extremely small (only London has double of Norway population) that exports oil. And it has free access to the European market. Uk, as I said before, very likely won't have it.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#45

Post by dsjoerg »

dingaling wrote: post #42
RBerenguel wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

> Norway is a huge oil exporter. Huge? Norway's export of crude oil and gas in 2015 ( 450 billion krone ) is equivalent to about £40 billion. Which puts them somewhere in the teens in terms of export scoreboard, behind the UAE. http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/expor... That's less than four month's worth of the UK's exports to non-EU countries alone ( £25 billion per month, about 52% to non-EU )…

2/3rds of Norway's exports are oil: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/count...

It's easier to run a more isolated economy when so much of what you offer to others is a commodity.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#46

Post by arrrg »

rtpg wrote: post #10

>The world is a much more connected place today than it was 50 years ago and next to a unified EU with the UK as an outsider (and, if we are to believe the latest developments with England as an outsider) it is not a very important country economically. The sad thing is that if the UK were more invested in the EU (for example, with the Schengen zone), then people might have ended up feeling more attached to it. The c…

Your read on the EU's reaction seems weird. (Probably a result of the demonization of Juncker. I mean, I don't like juncker, too, but he is no monster. He is a bog-standard terribly unexciting politician.) You seem to see aggressiveness where there is concern.

If the UK indeed wants to leave (and the responsible and democratic thing to assume, given the vote, is that they do) then its best if they make that clear immediately and set negotiations in progress. That's best for the UK, best for the EU. It creates certainty where now there is none.

If the UK doesn't want to respect the will of its people then they should say so as quickly as possible, too! This is all common sense. We have to all know what to expect from the future to plan for it.

I mean, what the hell do you expect Juncker to do? Beg for the UK to remain?! The EU has, I think, always made it clear that they would respect the UK's sovereignty! Isn't this what this is all about?

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#47

Post by tremon »

narag wrote: post #39
raverbashing wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real question is if the UK can get similar deals as Norway and CH > They have no oil, just their financial industry. So, better? Oh and their watches. And pharmaceutical industry.

Oil won't move abroad.

Oil stands to vote again to secede from the union.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#48

Post by wfn »

dingaling wrote: post #42
RBerenguel wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

> Norway is a huge oil exporter. Huge? Norway's export of crude oil and gas in 2015 ( 450 billion krone ) is equivalent to about £40 billion. Which puts them somewhere in the teens in terms of export scoreboard, behind the UAE. http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/expor... That's less than four month's worth of the UK's exports to non-EU countries alone ( £25 billion per month, about 52% to non-EU )…

Don't forget, however, that Norway's population is ~5.2M, vs. UK's ~65.1M. (Norway's GDP per capita is ~$69k, UK's is ~$41k).

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#49

Post by tigershark »

dingaling wrote: post #42
RBerenguel wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

> Norway is a huge oil exporter. Huge? Norway's export of crude oil and gas in 2015 ( 450 billion krone ) is equivalent to about £40 billion. Which puts them somewhere in the teens in terms of export scoreboard, behind the UAE. http://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/expor... That's less than four month's worth of the UK's exports to non-EU countries alone ( £25 billion per month, about 52% to non-EU )…

It's 8000£ per capita. Accordingly to your own numbers uk exports 4600£ per capita. If this is not huge I don't really know how to call it.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#50

Post by bostik »

VLM wrote: post #24

There's a certain cognitive dissonance effect that wasn't covered in the list of reasons to leave: "If we leave, the public will have to suffer under 3.14 boondoggles worth of economic punishment" where boondoggle is an imaginary but comparable measurement of economic mismanagement and suffering. and then in the next story on the nightly news "The general public in the EU member country of Greece are suffering under…

> If the EU is so great, why aren't those UK citizens in support of it, emigrating en masse into Greece?

Now that's a straw man and I'm sure you know it. Let's turn the snark to 11:

If you were planning to emigrate to the Mediterranean climate and were short on funds, why wouldn't you aim for the cheap places - such as Egypt or Syria?

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