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To Stay or Not to Stay

jacquesmattheij.com

11–20 of 69 posts

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#11
I wonder how much of this regrexit sentiment is actually present and how much of it is just isolated incidents being held up as if they are representative. By the same media that predicted the outcome entirely wrong.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#12
post #7

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

The UK would have to agree on free movement like Norway and Switzerland to get the same deal, and that's the main thing they voted against. They never really had it anyways, getting into the UK has always felt more like the US border crossing. Good riddance.

> The UK would have to agree on free movement like Norway and Switzerland to get the same deal, and that's the main thing they voted against.

I don't think that's the main thing they voted against rather than a percieved opaque, wasteful and possibly corrupt system.

(I'm not sure but I'm afraid media cherry picked a bit to present the image of dumb xenophobic Leave supporters.)

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#13
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

Please take a look at how the Swiss are doing outside the EU. They have no oil, just their financial industry. Actually that's quite similar to the UK, just that the UK is much stronger in many other areas too. I suspect that the UK will do really well outside the EU. Edit: Has anyone here even considered that it might be the EU that will break up long before the UK? As I see it the next time Turkeys dictator Erdogan…

>I suspect that the UK will do really well outside the EU.

Can you give me some specific insight into how Northern Ireland, Wales or Cornwall are going to benefit from being outside the EU?

Will UK's farmers, for whom it is estimated that 55% of all income comes directly from EU subsidies, also benefit from an exit?

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#14
post #3

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

So are the Swiss. Turns out that they are so successful outside the EU that even Swiss garbage men earn more than most citizens of EU member states could ever dream of.

Is this adjusted with the cost of living in Switzerland ?

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#15
post #3

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

So are the Swiss. Turns out that they are so successful outside the EU that even Swiss garbage men earn more than most citizens of EU member states could ever dream of.

In either case there are very specific reasons for their respective success: Oil and foreign money, respectively. None of that is down to them not being part of the EU

The UK isn't even remotely comparable to either of those countries. Besides, both Switzerland and Norway have trade agreements with the EU. If the UK wants similar agreements it'll have to accept similar conditions including freedom of movement, which in turn will make this whole Brexit affair rather pointless: The UK will effectively have to accept the same conditions it has right now without any ability to influence or veto EU regulations anymore.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#16

I find many people are extremely negative about Brexit. I didn't recommend Brexit but when I hear people describe it like an unavoidable catastrophe I think it might be good to remind you that this is just what Norwegian politicians told the public before the 1994 EU referendum. Turns out they were wrong: Norwegians are very happy outside EU.

The catastrophe that people are mostly worried about is the impact of Britain leaving on the EU, not just to Britain. It is a key member of the EU and it's exit could be very destabilising for trade and investment throughout the region. On the global scale, not too many people will benefit in the next 5-10 years, maybe Britain will though (who knows for sure).

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#17
> Amidst claims of regret and being duped the UK population is rocked by the impact of what they’ve done, but even if everybody that wanted to would be allowed to ‘switch sides’ and vote again the ‘leave’ camp would still win, but by a smaller margin.

I could well imagine that many "remain" non-voters would actually vote at a second referendum, tipping the scales.

But of course that is pretty much speculation, as seems to be Jacques' point. (or is there any data to back up that claim?)

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#18
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I hear the "Norway" issue I just point out one crucial fact: oil. Norway is a huge oil exporter.

Please take a look at how the Swiss are doing outside the EU. They have no oil, just their financial industry. Actually that's quite similar to the UK, just that the UK is much stronger in many other areas too. I suspect that the UK will do really well outside the EU. Edit: Has anyone here even considered that it might be the EU that will break up long before the UK? As I see it the next time Turkeys dictator Erdogan…

Switzerland has ~10% GDP coming from banking, roughly the same as the UK. Also, Switzerland is part of the single market.

The thing is, most of the "big banking" in the UK is already planning for its own leave to Frankfurt and Paris. And the EU seems pretty clear into not having the UK in the single market.

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#19
post #8

I wonder if Britain's exit is really as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. My pretty much working class family in Germany has made frequent use of open borders in the Eurozone, traveling to Spain and France several times in their lives. I wonder how much that would be true for generally working class British people. Do they go to Disneyland in Paris? Do they travel to music festivals in other European cou…

> My siblings do this in a car for cheap

Ryanair and other low cost flights are cheap. And gas is expensive in Europe

Some do travel, but I guess they enjoy it less. Because they, for the most part, only speak English

> On top of that is that the UK has had a different currency

Which they chose not to change when the Euro came (and I'm actually with them here, and it's really not a big deal, especially with debit and credit cards of today)

Re: To Stay or Not to Stay

#20

> Amidst claims of regret and being duped the UK population is rocked by the impact of what they’ve done, but even if everybody that wanted to would be allowed to ‘switch sides’ and vote again the ‘leave’ camp would still win, but by a smaller margin. I could well imagine that many "remain" non-voters would actually vote at a second referendum, tipping the scales. But of course that is pretty much speculation, as see…

Possibly he was using this poll data: https://twitter.com/DRMacIver/status/746810127584464896

...but I don't know what the primary source of that is.

Edit: Sorry about multiple broken links, I was klutz-editing this on my phone.

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