11–20 of 108 posts
The media has been fairly biased wrt. Brexit up to the referendum but after the result is in they have just gone completely stupid. Boris Johnson is an excellent future leader of the conservatives and will do very well as a prime minister. That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal to what is traditionally a left-winged and very EU-positive place. What will happen now is much more about the fut…
The original comment.
And probably somewhat close to reality, but we can't say for sure, only time will tell.
The media has been fairly biased wrt. Brexit up to the referendum but after the result is in they have just gone completely stupid. Boris Johnson is an excellent future leader of the conservatives and will do very well as a prime minister. That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal to what is traditionally a left-winged and very EU-positive place. What will happen now is much more about the fut…
The expression I heard a couple of times from my Londoner friends was that he canvassed "The Doughnut" which is the term for the wealthier classes living around the peripheries. His predecessor Livingston had shaped policy to suit the more urban residents.
Johnson is great at campaigning, and speaking and though he comes across as a buffoon he's a very shrewd guy. But I believe he's the dancing monkey rather than the organ grinder. He is untested in policy formation. I don't believe he has the stones to do the heavy political lifting that will be needed to lead the UK post-brexit.
While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wales, Cornwall and other parts of the country, as well as try not to have Northern Ireland fall back into a state of ongoing political violence.
So Johnson either has put his hand up to deal with all these issues until the next general election in (or sooner) 2020 and go to an election with a struggling economy (I doubt and the Union slowly falling apart (remember, Scotland's independence would topple the sitting PM almost certainly) or he can wait it out, let another Conservative Prime Minister lose in 2020, and become party leader upon the election loss and hope to win in 2025.
I doubt he thought this through very well. On the plus side UKIP's work is mostly done so they mightn't poll as well any more.
The media has been fairly biased wrt. Brexit up to the referendum but after the result is in they have just gone completely stupid. Boris Johnson is an excellent future leader of the conservatives and will do very well as a prime minister. That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal to what is traditionally a left-winged and very EU-positive place. What will happen now is much more about the fut…
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/ex...
The push for a better and bigger airport on the estuary was a good idea IMO, even if it failed, otherwise it struggle to think of any concrete achievements.
I doubt he'll make it to prime minister though, for one he's too intelligent and self-centred to want to preside over the dissolution of the United Kingdom and the difficult compromises that will be required if the uk wants access to European markets. I can't imagine a less persuasive figure than the affable but clownish boris to lead the uk in these difficult brexit negotiations.
On the future of the EU, that won't be decided by the UK who will have very little influence after they leave.
So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_20...
The negotiators won't be trying too hard to get a better deal from the EU, because they'll be the ones in power, and if they fail to negotiate a deal they'll be forced to give up that power. Trust politicians to prefer power over principles any time.
So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
Whether the next British government is prepared to discard the result of this referendum is another question. The answer is almost certainly no, absolutely not (considering that it'll presumably be a Conservative government led by pro-Leave politicians), but that's not the same thing as saying they'd be prepared to invoke Article 50 either. It's not impossible that they'll get so busy preparing to invoke Article 50 that they'll never actually get around to it before a new Remain government is formed.
(My bet is that Article 50 will be invoked, FWIW. A true Leave believer won't be worried about it, because they think the outcome will be strongly positive. Of course, I wouldn't be the first person to wonder if Johnson is a true Leave believer, or simply an opportunist who saw a lever.)
If the UK does actually go through with Brexit, whomever takes on this leadership role will have to court other countries in the EU to form a larger bloc before the UK's negotiations with the EU finalize. It's either that or accept a punitive deal from the EU.