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Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

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Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#361

Post by sangnoir »

volatilitish wrote: post #342
sangnoir wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politics is not always rational. It is also in the interest of the survival of the EU to deal with the UK in a heavy-handed manner. If a precedent is set that shows leaving the union is all upsides with no downsides, why would other countries remain? IMO, France has the greatest risk of leaving next, and without France, the whole EU might collapse. The kid gloves are definitely going to come off in the negotiations:…

> I have an inkling that's why the 'Leave' campaign is delaying the invocation of article 50. Seriously. Do you even know what you're talking about? Only our elected government (who were on the remain side), can invoke article 50, and it's up to them to decide when. Hopefully the whole EU does collapse.

> Do you even know what you're talking about

As a matter of fact, yes I do. Boris Johnson has come out and said there is "no need to rush", and he was on the Leave side.

> Only our elected government (who were on the remain side), can invoke article 50

That's just a roundabout way of saying "The Tories", innit? Cameron is a lame duck, and if the Leave wing of the Tories wanted him out tomorrow, he'd be out tomorrow.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#362

Post by goldenkey »

Oletros wrote: post #341
iofj wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think many UK citizens see big financial flows as being to their advantage. For 90%+ of them, I think that assessment is correct. Globalization has been dealt a serious blow here, and if you're pro-equality, that should be a good thing. Take an obvious and very direct example. Cleaning staff. Not having to compete with EU illegal immigrants will improve their labor conditions. Building workers and Polish gues…

> Cleaning staff. Not having to compete with EU illegal immigrants will improve their labor conditions If now there are "illegal", how will change when the UK leaves?

Passport requirements will change meaning that fake passports for countries other than the UK will not be accepted. Did you read about the rush for Irish passports?

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#363

Post by RUBwkVjwLsDKgPw »

xorcist wrote: post #322
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real numbers here. http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-would-key-export-sec... Some key UK export sectors - especially finance - have a very low probability of being able to carry on as normal. The German car industry accounts for around 3% of GDP. Sales to the UK are less than 1% of German GDP. The UK financial industry accounts for around 10% of GDP. Sales to the EU are around 4% of UK GDP. As a rough guess est…

> there's very little London can do for Europe that can't be done just as easily in Frankfurt The real winners here are probably going to be Hong Kong and Singapore. Those are top of mind alternatives when finance strategically places organizations in London, and with low tax and compatible legal systems (from what I understand Hong Kong's is pretty much a carbon copy of the UK) they basically got one competing city…

They're in the wrong time zone to compete...

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#364

Post by thevardanian »

yabatopia wrote: post #280
thevardanian wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes, and no. It now depends all on how the trade deals are negotiated. What I'm arguing is that the UK has plenty of bargaining chips, and can trade elsewhere if it doesn't feel like it's getting a fair deal in the EU.

Trade with whom? There aren't that many regions the world with a similar per capita income like the EU. The UK already trades extensively with the US and Canada, so that's an unlikely growth engine. Granted, the UK is a large economy, and may have some bargaining chips, but it needs the EU more than vice versa.

I don't think so, nor do the UK people. Good trade deals can be achieved regardless of EU membership, unless UK is can be substituted, which, I don't think, it can.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#365

Post by cylinder »

crdoconnor wrote: post #346
snowwrestler wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest hit is not in goods trade but in financial flows. With the UK part of the EU, major financial institutions could base in London to serve the entire EU. Once the UK exits the EU, they can't, at least not without a lot of extra costs and paperwork. London, one of the 3 financial capitals of the globe, will lose its status in favor (probably) of a more diverse mix of European cities. This will have downstrea…

That's a good thing. Large financial flows correlate with increased severity and frequency of financial crises: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/public... I don't know why people are crying about the financial sector. They have fucked over ordinary people time and time and time again and for once they get the short end of the stick. They're extractive parasitic economic actors who drive up costs…

Exactly. Living in a financial capital is shit if you're not in finance too. Bring on a more diverse array of industries with less parasitic behavior.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#366

Post by iofj »

kolinko wrote: post #347
iofj wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think many UK citizens see big financial flows as being to their advantage. For 90%+ of them, I think that assessment is correct. Globalization has been dealt a serious blow here, and if you're pro-equality, that should be a good thing. Take an obvious and very direct example. Cleaning staff. Not having to compete with EU illegal immigrants will improve their labor conditions. Building workers and Polish gues…

Who were these EU illegal immigrants you're talking about? The people from Poland are legal.

True, the illegal ones come from Turkey, Algeria, Afghanistan and Morocco (and I'm sure a dozen other countries).

They do work in the construction sector.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#367

Post by zepto »

Oletros wrote: post #345
zepto wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep saying this, but punishing the UK for leaving could easily give further fuel to the French leave campaign. And of course an exited Britain could extend an olive branch to France.

> People keep saying this, but punishing the UK for leaving could easily give further fuel to the French leave campaign. Giving the same deal that they have right now is what will give further fuel to leave. Why should I stay when I can have a better deal leaving?

Sure - but the converse - punishing them for leaving - confirms that the EU is a political hegemony whose purpose is to usurp sovereignty, rather than a mutually beneficial union of member states who are members by choice.

That would provide perfect ammunition for nationalists everywhere.

See:

http://newobserveronline.com/brexit-contagion-germany-fears-...

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#368

Post by rawfan »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #180
twblalock wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Long term, we now have control of our future. Not really. Your future is just as bound up with the future of Europe as it was before. The only real difference is that instead of negotiating with the EU as a member, you will have to negotiate as an outsider who has considerably less leverage, and who has recently pissed everyone off. And when you negotiate with non-EU countries, it will be even worse for you. As a m…

Regaining control was always about more than economic control. If you're in the EU, I hope you realise that you're currently being ruled by people you didn't elect, people in the pocket of big business, who have set out to concentrate power in the hands of a small selected group. I've heard some EU apologists claim that they don't believe in democracy, but some of us still do.

Sadly the people who are complaining about the democratic deficit of the EU are also the ones who blocked the democratic reforms. The European constitution was an awesome document that would have given more power to the democratic bodies of the EU. Sadly the UK, France and the Netherlands all held referendums to block it.

It was literally the same people in all three countries who campaigned against the constitution back then who are now the EU-critics that complain about the EU not being democratic enough.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#369

Post by yummyfajitas »

Robin_Message wrote: post #355
yummyfajitas wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking I favor taking the short term pain of breaking up with an abusive spouse. When France decided to leave the previous union of European states, the #remain folks definitely inflicted a lot of short term pain. Lots of French beaches still have monuments thanking the British, American and Canadian soldiers who died in support of #leave. Did that short term pain make #leave the wrong choice? Also, as a…

Comparing a mutual union with the Nazi third Reich comes across as just racist, particularly against Germans. Is that what you intended? Also, the UK has negotiated many concessions over the years, including the rebate, various exemptions and vetos including from the ever-closer union and the euro. So a less good deal as the result of a total renegotiation we initiated is not so much a punishment as a reflection of t…

If the "we should #remain to avoid short term pain from a vindictive ex" argument is valid, then it should have been valid for Vichy France as well. Obviously it's not.

You can call this sort of vindictiveness "realpolitik" and try to sound sophisticated, but this hardly invalidates my abusive ex-husband analogy.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#370

Post by wtbob »

yabatopia wrote: post #284
cdi wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the idiotic "Right to be forgotten".

What's idiotic about the right to be forgotten?

> What's idiotic about the right to be forgotten?

Snarky answer: the right to be forgotten part.

Serious answer: the so-called 'right to be forgotten' is really a 'right to force others to delete true statements,' which is to say, to cause them to lie by omission. It is an infringement upon those others' right to free speech. It's fundamentally stupid: no-one has a right compel government violence in order to muzzle others.

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