Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#311

Post by sgt101 » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 8:03 AM UTC

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #152

p4wnc6 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's unlikely for EU nations to significantly damage trading relationships with the UK. Germany, for example, exports a huge volume of cars to the UK and it comprises a significant portion of German GDP. Yes, there's volatility around exactly how such a trade deal will get worked out, but it's unrealistic to lump "access to European markets" into one big ball and assume that Brexit means that whole topic will be…

Real numbers here. http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-would-key-export-sec... Some key UK export sectors - especially finance - have a very low probability of being able to carry on as normal. The German car industry accounts for around 3% of GDP. Sales to the UK are less than 1% of German GDP. The UK financial industry accounts for around 10% of GDP. Sales to the EU are around 4% of UK GDP. As a rough guess est…

It's clear that the City will be impacted by this, but bear in mind that for the last five years the UK has been fighting to maintain it's place vs Paris and Frankfurt. The EU needs to implement a single fiscal authority to manage the Euro, that will not be based in London, there was never any prospect of that given London is not part of the Eurozone and the UK joining the Euro would destabilise the Euro, the UK economy and the wider european economy. London is inflated like a balloon at the moment, housing is utterly unaffordable and the transport system is totally disfunctional; I've been unable to get in for half of this week due to "floods" normally I can get a train into London with a travel time of 1hr 30min... my record time was/is 9hrs (all trains cancelled, hours waiting for busses, hours on buses, one of my colleagues got home less than an hour before having to leave to go back to work!)

In terms of positives here is a list.

1) People have woken up to the disastrous gap between rich and poor, realizing, I hope, that there is no communication between the provenances and the technocrats and that while you can bully and marginalize the poor you are simply unable to ignore them without resorting to repression. A vote like this is much better than a ring of estates where law breaks down and people are condemned to hopeless disassociation from the society that funds them. Now, will the UK's elite front up and start helping our fellow countryfolk? I doubt it, but that's the test on the table - create meaningful engagement in life and society for the bottom 25% rather than just hoping that they shut up and go away.

2) The EU can now reform its financial and governance arrangements to fit the needs of the Euro, if the EU doesn't do this the Euro is going to collapse, so I hope it does. This will make the EU more prosperous than it would otherwise be. Guesses please - the European state's GDP post a Euro collapse vs. the EU's GDP with a reformed and functioning single currency?

3. The UK will break up enabling Scotland to further develop its distinctive and hopefully very successful economy and national identity, in particular it will be interesting to see if this results in Edinburgh rebuilding itself as a financial centre as opposed to Frankfurt, Paris and London. If I were the SNP I would be planning a bloody great hub airport and some other very shiny infrastructure (high speed rail to Newcastle, Leeds and Manchester? Cross rail for Edinburgh/Glasgow?)

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#312

Post by kalleboo » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 8:11 AM UTC

mixedCase wrote: post #294

jaimebuelta wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not going to be a matter of punishment. This almost sets negotiation back to square one. There are A LOT of effects in this that needs to be taken into account. Anything that's reciprocal currently (e.g. access to healthcare for Britons in Spain and for Spaniards in UK) is going to evaporate and will need to be reevaluated. Now, the UK has clearly stated they don't like some things like free movement of people.…

>Now, the UK has clearly stated they don't like some things like free movement of people. Non-european people coming in as economic inmigrants, to be more precise.

I thought they were pretty heavily against EU migrants from poorer nations as well? At least that's been UKIP's position.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#313

Post by ZeroGravitas » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 8:15 AM UTC

mixedCase wrote: post #294

jaimebuelta wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not going to be a matter of punishment. This almost sets negotiation back to square one. There are A LOT of effects in this that needs to be taken into account. Anything that's reciprocal currently (e.g. access to healthcare for Britons in Spain and for Spaniards in UK) is going to evaporate and will need to be reevaluated. Now, the UK has clearly stated they don't like some things like free movement of people.…

>Now, the UK has clearly stated they don't like some things like free movement of people. Non-european people coming in as economic inmigrants, to be more precise.

It's all a bit confused, but the rhetoric is basically against all immigrants, with eastern Europeans being one particularly targeted group in the context of Brexit.

But it's complex. People were asked by the media which way they would vote and why. Asians were saying they'd been promised more immigration from their country by the Leave campaign, while other people were saying they'd vote Leave because there were too many Africans living in their street. The thought of Turkey joining, and letting in Syrian refugees was also in the mix.

And one of the intellectual leaders of Leave has already stated he's confused why people think voting Leave will reduce immigration.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#314

Post by Oletros » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 8:58 AM UTC

p4wnc6 wrote: post #92

mjevans wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take your word on those numbers as they sound reasonable. However I do believe you've neglected the other points of the post which were about the value of access to the European market place and that 10% say in how said market is run. Those are costs / benefits which are not so easily counted before the painful divorce is complete.

But it's unlikely for EU nations to significantly damage trading relationships with the UK. Germany, for example, exports a huge volume of cars to the UK and it comprises a significant portion of German GDP. Yes, there's volatility around exactly how such a trade deal will get worked out, but it's unrealistic to lump "access to European markets" into one big ball and assume that Brexit means that whole topic will be…

> But it's unlikely for EU nations to significantly damage trading relationships with the UK

Well, they can have the same deal that Norway or Switzerland have with the EU. The problem is that to have that deal they have to agree to be part of Shengen Area

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#315

Post by AnonymousPlanet » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 8:58 AM UTC

volatilitish wrote: post #2

As a brit, it's strange to see how it's being spun here. The majority of people voted to leave the EU and to regain independence. There will be a little volatility until some facts about how that divorce happens, emerge. Long term, we now have control of our future. In terms of startups though, the EU is there to serve big businesses and powerful establishment. It's there to hinder startups and small businesses. If y…

Do yourself a favour and look up EU, EEA, EFTA, and the rights and obligations of the respective member states.

Assuming the EU countries won't give you a hard time, the most likely outcome is that the UK remains a member of the EEA. This means, e.g., granting free movement, paying support, and implementing regulations and standards (kettles and toasters come to mind wink), while only having a minimum of say in it or none at all. You will only have gained control to a minor extent.

Not being part of a trade union that removes tariffs on goods and services would have a detrimental effect on at least the productive sector. You will have to restructure your economy into becoming Switzerland (i.e., not being part of major supply chains) very fast. You will probably join EFTA to be part in at least some kind of trade union.

In the end, you will either be less in control than you thought or in an economical limbo.

Talking about spin: maybe you have been influenced by the negative spin anything EU got in the last years in the UK?

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#316

Post by gakada » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:19 AM UTC

zepto wrote: post #306

Daishiman wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After a 10% reduction in real income for the Brits just one day after the referendum? Fat chance.

That 10% is just the market reacting to it's failed prediction.

But the prediction was that the status quo would continue.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#317

Post by Oletros » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:22 AM UTC

T-A wrote: post #41

gambiting wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I run a small company trading between UK and two other EU countries. This is a disaster - I remember back when you had to pay import duties in countries that haven't joined the EU yet, and basically with razor thin margins, the added cost of bureaucracy would collapse the company now. I'm already considering switching suppliers from UK to Germany, which of course means that UK economy will have less money - and I'm s…

A reasonable outcome would be for the UK to join EFTA [1]. That should be pretty much neutral with regard to commerce. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Free_Trade_Associatio...

Almost all of the non eU countries that are part of the EFTA are part of Schengen area and they have agree with a lot of EU treaties.

In fact, being part of the EFTA will make UK more abide to the EU duties that it was until now

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#318

Post by cr1895 » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:37 AM UTC

sgt101 wrote: post #307

vonnik wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Independence is a mirage, as is control. No individual nor country in the world is independent. We are all interdependent on one another, and ever more so as the movement of data, goods and people accelerates. The EU is a framework is facilitate that interdependence, and while it has many faults, it was created to prevent another world war and in that it has succeeded. Great Britain's future is very dependent on the…

"Great Britain's future is very dependent on the decisions of its neighbors and trade partners, and it has just told those neighbors and trade partners to go to hell. The EU will make the UK pay a price for Brexit, and rightly so, otherwise all member states would leave and still enjoy the free movement of goods and people." If you remove the free market from the EU's mission (as painted by your scenario above of eve…

Are you suggesting that a small village's worth of British troops in Germany is what placates Europe? I'm not really sure what you mean, or what you think will be so fascinating should they leave Germany.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#319

Post by cr1895 » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:40 AM UTC

James001 wrote: post #186

vonnik wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Independence is a mirage, as is control. No individual nor country in the world is independent. We are all interdependent on one another, and ever more so as the movement of data, goods and people accelerates. The EU is a framework is facilitate that interdependence, and while it has many faults, it was created to prevent another world war and in that it has succeeded. Great Britain's future is very dependent on the…

"it was created to prevent another world war and in that it has succeeded" You couldn't be more wrong here. If anything the creation of the EU makes war much more likely, precisely because of the inevitability of its breakup. The UK is just the first to go, but many more countries will leave too, effectively finishing off the EU project. And with the end of the EU, comes the bitter divorce between European countries,…

Can you expand why the countries of the EU are so fundamentally incompatible that their breakup is inevitable (and, as you claim from the start)?

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#320

Post by ParrotyError » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:48 AM UTC

programmarchy wrote: post #299

ParrotyError wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you nuts? We already had control. Now the future of the UK is in jeopardy because of you tinfoil hat brigade.

Personal attack is not an argument.

No, but it's how the Kippers won the vote.