UK votes to leave EU • Hacker News Board

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#271

Post by darawk » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:35 AM UTC

So, devil's advocate here: Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? I feel like most educated people seem to think this is terrible (and the markets seem to agree), but to me, the European union seems like an anti-democratic institution that doesn't really provide much value.

I mean, don't me wrong, removing trade barriers is probably good. But won't the UK just be able to pretty quickly renegotiate basically similar terms again anyway? Are their trading partners really going to stop trading with them or substantially alter their tariff schedules as a result of this?

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#272

Post by pastProlog » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:35 AM UTC

At the end of the day, the EU as it is is something that was shoved onto the people of Europe by big business, bureaucrats, Eurocrats etc. Working people feel all the negative impact of open borders and so-called "free trade", and the 1% gets all the gains from it. The mass of people barely feel they have any control over the Parliament of the UK, never mind the even more remote government in Brussels.

Many see the EU as constituted as something concocted by bureaucrats in business and government, for their own ends, a view which I think is correct. So the UK or Greece and the like being fed up with the EU should come as no surprise.

I think the EU as organized is a bad idea. I don't think European integration is a bad idea, but it was done without much consultation of the populace of Europe, and things like this are the result.

In the US, the popular candidates with mass rallies bucking against their party establishments have been Trump and Sanders, although Sanders was pushed aside for the establishment candidate with the help of superdelegates etc. Congressional job ratings for 2016 fluctuated between 13% to 18% approval, 75-84% disapproval. The average American feels alienated from Washington DC because Washington DC is unresponsive to the desires of the average American. The situation is not dissimilar from Europe.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#273

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:35 AM UTC

[deleted]

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#274

Post by UK-AL » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:36 AM UTC

mrb wrote: post #252

beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

"The EU needs the UK" Not true. It is the reverse because the UK runs a gigantic trade deficit: in 2014 they exported 472 billion USD, but imported 663 billion USD¹. In fact the UK is the second country in the world with the largest trade deficit (behind the US). A huge portions of UK's export go to Europe, therefore the EU has definitely more say when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK. I would be very…

UK importing tons of good from EU means that the uk is generating a lot of jobs for EU countries.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#275

Post by craigyk » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:37 AM UTC

mrb wrote: post #252

beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

"The EU needs the UK" Not true. It is the reverse because the UK runs a gigantic trade deficit: in 2014 they exported 472 billion USD, but imported 663 billion USD¹. In fact the UK is the second country in the world with the largest trade deficit (behind the US). A huge portions of UK's export go to Europe, therefore the EU has definitely more say when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK. I would be very…

I'm not sure this is a strong counterargument.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#276

Post by nikdaheratik » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:38 AM UTC

rdtsc wrote: post #200

Being selfish here, wonder how this affects US. Even though on the surface EU and UK are alies and trade partners, it is not all black and white. I believe US will benefit because they will be able to play UK against EU and vice-versa to gain somehow. Say if EU doesn't allow import of US chicken they can go and try to persuade UK to not allow some import from EU in exchange for some other favor and so on. Also, I wou…

There are a number of issues and it likely will affect each industry separately. The main concern are trade agreements that are US-EU vs. ones that are US-UK. The former will have to be renegotiated again or dropped completely with respect to the US-UK trade.

It's impossible to say what will happen in each case as the US will have the upper hand in US-UK negotiations. Also, dropping the UK from the EU is less favorable in EU-US deals than it was as it's dropping a large economy from its market.

However, the election results in the US are probably a bigger consideration in the short term as a huge anti-free trade or anti-immigration election in the US would cause major changes as well.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#277

Post by UK-AL » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:40 AM UTC

darawk wrote: post #271

So, devil's advocate here: Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? I feel like most educated people seem to think this is terrible (and the markets seem to agree), but to me, the European union seems like an anti-democratic institution that doesn't really provide much value. I mean, don't me wrong, removing trade barriers is probably good. But won't the UK just be able to pretty quickly renegotiate basical…

The markets are mostly reacting to the uncertainty this creates, rather than judgement if this was good or bad in the long term.

Nobody knows the future status of the uk.

If we get good deals expect the markets to recover in a couple of years.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#278

Post by Zpalmtree » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:40 AM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #51

I still have severe doubts this will happen. It will take many years to renegotiate and most treaties will be in effect until then. My guess is very little changes, it's more of a sign that people want their country sovereign as opposed to being ruled by a committee in another country.

If we don't leave the EU, it will completely destroy the conservative party. Very unlikely that they will risk their jobs. If they do, chances are a eurosceptic party would get elected in 2020 if a general election isn't called before.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#279

Post by doikor » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:41 AM UTC

darawk wrote: post #271

So, devil's advocate here: Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? I feel like most educated people seem to think this is terrible (and the markets seem to agree), but to me, the European union seems like an anti-democratic institution that doesn't really provide much value. I mean, don't me wrong, removing trade barriers is probably good. But won't the UK just be able to pretty quickly renegotiate basical…

UK most likely wont be able to negotiate similar terms with EU countries. France/Germany at least will be pissed with them and give UK terrible deals out of spite. I expect a lot of other EU countries to do the same.

edit: Also I now have to buy my shit from France/Germany Amazon? (Or just have an English language Amazon for the continental Europe please...)

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#280

Post by gakada » Fri, Jun 24, 2016, 5:41 AM UTC

darawk wrote: post #271

So, devil's advocate here: Can someone explain to me why this is a bad thing? I feel like most educated people seem to think this is terrible (and the markets seem to agree), but to me, the European union seems like an anti-democratic institution that doesn't really provide much value. I mean, don't me wrong, removing trade barriers is probably good. But won't the UK just be able to pretty quickly renegotiate basical…

Single market. Despite some bigots who don't want Polish people existing near them, having free movement of people, goods, capital and all the rest of it is really good for the participant economies.

Can you imagine if US citizens had to get a visa to move from New York to California?