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UK votes to leave EU

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UK votes to leave EU

#251

Post by conistonwater »

beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

> This isn't some one sided negotiation.

This is pretty reckless risk management on Britain's part: to place so much weight on a question of just how a future, unclear negotiation, subject to who knows what bureaucracy and other countries' own interests, will turn out. It's very vague to just say "well we're trading a lot, so surely we're very important" without any supporting evidence or precedent: it makes all sorts of unjustified assumptions.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#252

Post by mrb »

beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

"The EU needs the UK"

Not true. It is the reverse because the UK runs a gigantic trade deficit: in 2014 they exported 472 billion USD, but imported 663 billion USD¹. In fact the UK is the second country in the world with the largest trade deficit (behind the US). A huge portions of UK's export go to Europe, therefore the EU has definitely more say when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK. I would be very worried for my economic future if I were a UK citizen...

¹ http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#253

Post by gkop »

smegel wrote: post #204
beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

The UK will also still carry a lot of influence over Europe through NATO.

The UK itself may fracture - Scotland and/or Northern Ireland may peel off for the EU - putting NATO at risk.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#254

Post by studentrob »

thetmkay wrote: post #15

I voted today. I work in London at a startup with international markets. I believe in the ideal of free movement. I think the EU is a bit of a mess conceptually and mechanically, but in general a step forward for Europe. This is really the beginning of a very long, tedious and ultimately unsatisfying couple of years of dissatisfaction and instability as we negotiate with the EU and the rest of the world.

> This is really the beginning of a very long, tedious and ultimately unsatisfying couple of years of dissatisfaction and instability as we negotiate with the EU and the rest of the world.

There is at least one positive point regardless of how you voted.

The referendum gets people talking about the issue and makes them more aware of the pros and cons. Over time they will find out if that was a good or bad move for the success of the UK.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#255

Post by randomsearch »

beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

Are you trying to imply things won't change? Then why have EU membership at all?

It will, of course, be a compromise, but one that likely results in the UK being much worse off.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#256

Post by booleanbetrayal »

rayiner wrote: post #73
lossolo wrote: post #5

Unfortunately nationalism and populism won another war. Now watch Scotland make referendum to leave UK and after leaving they will join EU.

It's ironic to me that a site where people extol the virtues of consistent culture at startups is so down on people voting to free themselves from a body politic they don't believe shares their values.

"Change the world (but don't)!"

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#257

Post by cm2187 »

dmichulke wrote: post #183
beninvalencia wrote: post #122

As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently). Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unpr…

The EU will not want to (give the UK a good deal) but for each trade area there will be a member state suffering if they won't. The negotiations themselves may prove a good catalyst for further disarray.

But that's because all european politicians at that time completely discounted the fact that the vote could go that way. If only they had looked at polls then they would have realised this was a very serious risk.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#258

Post by icebraining »

dangjc wrote: post #95

It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.

Well, 35% will be ejected against their will. The other 28% didn't choose to show what their will was.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#259

Post by dguaraglia »

gonvaled wrote: post #151
leot wrote: post #58

What's stopping Britons from having another referendum?

It is not legally binding, so nothing. But who would take responsibility of organizing that, disregarding the opinion of the majority of the British people? And what do you suggest, having a non-binding referendum until Remain wins? Out is out.

I don't know, that's not exactly what happened in Ireland with the Lisbon Treaty. When the first referendum didn't get the results "expected", they forced a second referendum after much campaigning and the results were different. Democracy at work? Bureaucracy at work? Who knows.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#260

Post by ohthehugemanate »

fapjacks wrote: post #191
lettergram wrote: post #51

I still have severe doubts this will happen. It will take many years to renegotiate and most treaties will be in effect until then. My guess is very little changes, it's more of a sign that people want their country sovereign as opposed to being ruled by a committee in another country.

Now this is an interesting comment. Does anyone have specifics about the timeline with respect to the treaties already binding the UK to other EU members? EDIT: As mentioned elsewhere, here's an interesting summary with projected timelines: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...

This is a non binding referendum, so nothing HAS to happen at all. But all the party leaders have promised to abide by the result, with varying definitions of "immediately."

Once the PM formally starts the process, it must be completed in 2 years according to the Lisbon treaty. The end of that period is when the trade deals expire. There will clearly be preparation before they formally pull the trigger, but it's anybody's guess just how long it will be. There may be a change in UK leadership over this, and there are upcoming elections in France and Germany to consider. The Leave campaign has talked about 2020 as a good date to end the separation.

For all the treaties that will expire, trade will fall back to the WTO rules, which (to my understanding) are like the benches at train stations. They're arguably better than nothing, but very uncomfortable to sit on for any length of time.

IMO the market to watch is finance. Losing the free movement of money is an enormous blow to London as a global financial hub. Especially since the London and European stock exchanges are merging, it's possible the big investment banks will simply move to Frankfurt. The financial sector contributes 84bn to GDP (of 2.8tn), so there's a lot at risk there. So if any treaties get signed quick, it'll be the financial ones.

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