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UK votes to leave EU

bbc.co.uk

221–230 of 1001 posts

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#222

Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…

> Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years.

It's possible. The same with northern ireland. But more interesting question is which european country will leave the EU next. Hungary? Greece? Finland?

The UK is a pillar of the EU ( 2nd largest economy and the 3rd most populous country ). Don't see the EU surviving without the UK.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#223

I had been following the likelihood of a Brexit on Bloomberg. Before polls opened today, they said there was a 25% chance of the UK leaving. Seems they were quite, quite wrong. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

I don't think it's terribly surprising. When people are demonized for their political beliefs (i.e., you're stupid and/or racist if you support Brexit), the truth will only come out with anonymity. Hence, polling becomes much more unreliable.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#224

In my opinion, the chances of any sort of war at this point remain pretty low. However, it's possible a Trump presidency and fractured EU might lead to a perfect storm for some kind of global conflict in a few years. I think still a low chance, but it does almost sound like the beginning chapter of a history book.

It's the beginning chapter of a history book we've all read several times. What a shame.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#226
post #95

It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.

That's not true, the turnout is 76%. So the remaining 24% don't care.

0.51 * 0.76 + 0.24 = 0.62

So the majority of the population 62% are happy with decision.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#227
post #58

What's stopping Britons from having another referendum?

It is not legally binding, so nothing. But who would take responsibility of organizing that, disregarding the opinion of the majority of the British people? And what do you suggest, having a non-binding referendum until Remain wins? Out is out.

It's not really a majority though. If I polled 100 people and said to you the majority said leave, how many would you estimate that is? 75-90 perhaps?

This result seems to be 52/48 so it's incredible that such a monumentally important decision is to be made from this interpretation of a majority.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#228
post #200

Being selfish here, wonder how this affects US. Even though on the surface EU and UK are alies and trade partners, it is not all black and white. I believe US will benefit because they will be able to play UK against EU and vice-versa to gain somehow. Say if EU doesn't allow import of US chicken they can go and try to persuade UK to not allow some import from EU in exchange for some other favor and so on. Also, I wou…

At the most basic, a strong US Dollar against the UK GBP means that US exports to GB become more costly, which reduces US exports, which hurts the US Economy, which is not good for the US.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#229
Really happy to see this. Of course this is about immigration. Moderates on all sides of politics in all countries have long asserted that it is important that Israel remain a "Jewish and democratic state". Now some right wing extremists have taken this same logic and applied to other countries :-)

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#230
post #95

It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.

That's what a democracy is all about, isn't it? Isn't it insane how close the race between G.W. Bush and Al Gore was in 2000? Consider the consequences of that decision for a moment. And the voter turnout was only 51.2% in that election, not ~70%. Saying that in the end a small amount of voters make all the difference, that's true in so many cases... At least regarding the Brexit-vote no one can complain that there w…

Absolutely not. Democracy means decisions made by the people. There's NOTHING about the concept of Democracy that requires using THE WORST possible method of decision-making, i.e. majority rule yes/no.

There's all sorts of other ways to make collective decisions such as score voting, consensus, requiring approval from a combination of stakeholders (such as in a case like this requiring that all parts of the UK all approve), and so on. Majority rule brings tyranny of the majority and is the worst way to run a democracy.

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