I had been following the likelihood of a Brexit on Bloomberg. Before polls opened today, they said there was a 25% chance of the UK leaving. Seems they were quite, quite wrong.
UK votes to leave EU
111–120 of 1001 posts
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#112It's amazing that such deep constitutional change will be achieved with such a slim majority. 48% of British people will be ejected out of the EU essentially against their will. The UK has always embraced first past the post voting, but it really shows here how it creates very discontinuous inflection points.
FPTP makes no difference when there are only two possible options.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#113I have a particularly strong attachment to Scotland, and as most Scottish people have, I would have voted to remain in the EU, however messy it is, though I suppose my opinion on the matter has little relevance since I can't vote.
More interestingly, I find this is a telling example of the limitations of democracy as we know it. Democracy, very broadly speaking, ignores population clusters (physical or ideological) to the extent that the "voice of the people" is actually not representative of anyone's in particular. I've tried to educate myself about alternatives or adaptations, but I have to admit I haven't found anything especially convincing thus far.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#114Japan is also being bludgeoned here with safe haven flows to the yen. Up 15% against sterling in a matter of hours. Up 5% against another safe haven, the USD... And they have negative interest rates... wow.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#115Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…
> all the compliance with EU regulations
Including immigration? That seemed to be a big factor in the Leave vote.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#116Does anyone knows how this will affect tech recruitment?
From what I see, London's tech industry will largely shift to Berlin and other places.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#117Please fix title. The article title is "EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK vote to leave". The count hasn't even finished yet, and it is still possible for the remain vote to win at the current time (albeit unlikely).
There's a higher chance of pigs flying at this point.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#118Can someone please give an unbiased summary of what this means and how it will impact the UK, Europe, and the rest of the world?
It may not impact anyone actually. It's just a referendum and not a binding decision. I wouldn't expect a ~50% vote to actually force a change.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#119Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…
Short term it is going to be bad for the UK. It will have to renegociate trade agreements, this will create lots of uncertainty which isn't good for the economy, and also lots of market volatility.
Long term the EU is going nowhere, it is dominated by socialist countries that will go the way of Argentina, a slow but steady decline (well under way). And the migrant crisis, which is likely only at its beginning (look at african demographic projections), combined with Brexit and the rise of populism all over Europe, will likely put such a strain on the EU that I think its days are numbered.
So on the long run, I think the UK has probably made a wise choice.
Re: UK votes to leave EU
#120Swede and EU citizen.
Saddened by this, but the people's voice shall rule.
What I would like to see is a more Swiss-style democratic involvement in EU. It is not for no reason many Europeans feel detached from what the EU does.