California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents • Hacker News Board

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#101

Post by hanklazard » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:26 PM UTC

shawndumas wrote: post #44

sideband wrote: post #33

There's some sort of Stockholm syndrome prevalent among too many Bay Area residents that compels them to accept the lower quality of life. I lived there for several years until recently, and it was a surreal experience to hear others discuss the sacrifices they were making just to have a roof over their family's head, to provide a half-decent education for their children. And these were well-payed folks at the brand-…

Having lived in Long Island, NY and Boca Raton, FL I gotta say... I don't think I could leave the Bay Area. The weather, the geological features, the schools, the meetups, the job opportunities... all factors. But the biggest is that the people are truly interested in intellectual matters in a way that was not extant in the other places I've lived. My son is a programmer and nobody had a clue what he was talking abou…

>But the biggest is that the people are truly interested in intellectual matters in a way that was not extant in the other places I've lived.

This is the way I feel in Boston. The cost of living (mainly housing prices) gets more ridiculous every year, but the intellectual and cultural environment make me want to stay. Most of my friends back home (deep South) are easily able to afford to buy decent homes, while I'm stuck renting a tiny apt. Still, this feels like a worthwhile material sacrifice given the culture of this city. Then again, if I had kids, I might feel differently ...

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#102

Post by spking » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:26 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #39

When people saying housing costs are out of control in California, really they mean the bay area. Every other part of the state is no worse than anywhere else.

It's just as bad down here in LA. Six figure incomes get eaten up pretty fast by rent/mortgage and taxes.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#103

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:28 PM UTC

api wrote: post #92

netcan wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just SF. It's big cities around the world. They are drawing in more people than ever. Most have housing/transport issues that present as high cost of living. People still keep pouring in and successful cities stand out in terms of household income. Even as the internet makes geography less relevant, the competition for living in cities keeps growing.

I've seen the "alpha cities" phenomenon explode since 2000. Where you live has become a proxy for your competence, importance, etc. I'm not convinced it's not the Internet. Google "FOMO" for a possible mechanism. The Internet makes it easy for large cities, by sheer social mass, to send out a louder cultural signal and convince everyone else they are missing something by not being there. Talk to a young midwesterner…

[deleted]

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#104

Post by iceManChild » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:29 PM UTC

I live in the Bay Area. I have been able to make it work for me and love it here, though I do understand some of the reasons why others may not. Cost probably tops that list. But, the complaints about traffic should not be focused on California. In my experience most of the cities I have to travel to (Seattle, Phoenix, Atlanta) have much worse traffic issues. My colleagues in those cities spend 5-10 extra hours driving during the week compared to what my coworkers and I spend.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#105

Post by brooklyndavs » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:31 PM UTC

api wrote: post #92

netcan wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just SF. It's big cities around the world. They are drawing in more people than ever. Most have housing/transport issues that present as high cost of living. People still keep pouring in and successful cities stand out in terms of household income. Even as the internet makes geography less relevant, the competition for living in cities keeps growing.

I've seen the "alpha cities" phenomenon explode since 2000. Where you live has become a proxy for your competence, importance, etc. I'm not convinced it's not the Internet. Google "FOMO" for a possible mechanism. The Internet makes it easy for large cities, by sheer social mass, to send out a louder cultural signal and convince everyone else they are missing something by not being there. Talk to a young midwesterner…

"Opportunity clusters in cities where there is capital available, and those tend to be the big cities where the most rich people live."

Which, in 2016, is kinda crazy. One would think with the internet being geographically close to capital wouldn't matter as much. Now it matters more than ever before it seems.

It's sad that the young midwesterner (hey that was me once!) has to try to "get to NYC" for the best opportunities instead of modern communications making those opportunities available in places like Chicago, or Indy, or that person's small hometown. That person shouldn't have to choose between sharing a one bedroom apartment in Bushwick with 4 other people or remain jobless/stuck at one job in whatever middle of the country place that person resides in.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#106

Post by tomp » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:31 PM UTC

cubano wrote: post #53

nugget wrote: post #28

I spent most of my childhood in California. Real estate is and always has been the number one industry in the state. The majority of my childhood friends' wealth seems to derive from houses their families bought in the early 80s or earlier. Prices have benefited from a stable of one trick ponies - fixed low property taxes (prop 13), massive population growth (net domestic migration is now negative), job growth from t…

The price will hit a ceiling at the exact time demand = supply, and not a moment before. A worldwide markets for these homes now exists, which means the number of people who both want and can afford them is huge, and therefore the price will rise until that condition is no longer true. Also, I believe we are again seeing signs of loan company shenanigans which, if so, will allow easy-to-game capital to continue to ch…

The "demand=supply" argument doesn't exactly explain why a foreign billionaire would want to own an appartment exactly in San Francisco. Personally, I would buy a flat in Ibiza, Barcelona or Hawaii way before even considering SF.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#107

Post by cylinder » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:32 PM UTC

overcast wrote: post #43

cylinder wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like they aren't paying enough. If people demanded what they needed to live a decent life, they would either have to get it or the companies would wake up and relocate more quality jobs to lower COL locations.

Problem is, soon as everyone starts demanding more, then the cost of everything else goes up. There is limited space, and those people making the most, will pay the most regardless. Just a never ending cycle.

My point was that more good jobs would be relocated and distributed across the country to cheaper cities

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#108

Post by nugget » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:32 PM UTC

cubano wrote: post #53

nugget wrote: post #28

I spent most of my childhood in California. Real estate is and always has been the number one industry in the state. The majority of my childhood friends' wealth seems to derive from houses their families bought in the early 80s or earlier. Prices have benefited from a stable of one trick ponies - fixed low property taxes (prop 13), massive population growth (net domestic migration is now negative), job growth from t…

The price will hit a ceiling at the exact time demand = supply, and not a moment before. A worldwide markets for these homes now exists, which means the number of people who both want and can afford them is huge, and therefore the price will rise until that condition is no longer true. Also, I believe we are again seeing signs of loan company shenanigans which, if so, will allow easy-to-game capital to continue to ch…

Given that people don't want to leave the Bay Area and don't want to be homeless, prices seem to be largely determined by how much firepower the demand side of the equation has. In the absurd scenario of 0% mortgage rates and a 100% LTV interest-only mortgage you could theoretically occupy any house you wanted indefinitely for the price of the property taxes and maintenance (and turn a profit by subleasing to roommates or tourists). 0% is an extreme but how close could we get? Japan is already close to 1%. At which point it costs $10k/year or just a bit more than $800/month for every million in housing cost. It doesn't seem fiscally healthy (but who knows), and if any significant number of people started to consume housing in this way I can't see how we avoid another 2008 style housing collapse in those areas if rates ever rise.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#109

Post by overcast » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:33 PM UTC

grimmdude wrote: post #75

up_and_up wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally. Speaking as someone who lived in the bay area for 4 years and happily left after college, why live in CA when you can work remotely from anywhere else, live well, own a sizable property, and make decent bank? The bay area is great to visit, I was literally just there a couple months ago. But to live I would need to make 4x what I do now.

So, you're making 'decent bank' now yet you need to make 4x that to live in SF?

You can make a ton of money elsewhere, relative to cost of living. If you were to move to SF, to have the SAME living standards, you'd need to making multiples more than that.

Re: California's skyrocketing housing costs, taxes prompt exodus of residents

#110

Post by fiatmoney » Thu, Jun 23, 2016, 3:33 PM UTC

Just wait until enough democratic voters are imported to overturn Proposition 13 (caps property taxes at roughly what they were when you bought the house, and requires 2/3 vote in the legislature for tax increases).

California is trying so hard to go full Venezuela, and the only buffer they have are the three or so major industries that are doing well (agriculture, entertainment, and tech). If there's a contraction in those sectors, expect a death spiral.