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I think building a model on other factors about the people that commit these acts would perhaps yield better results.
The first, obvious conclusion from FBI data is that a group making up approximately 4% of the US population commits about half the US homicides, mostly against others in that group, and the other 96% of the US has a homicide rate lower than England - and also much lower violent crime rate than England.
Following the [X] I was wondering if we can build a model [Y] and some other data sources like [Z], etc ? (X = Reichstag Fire, Y = of potential communists, Z = communist party affiliation) (X = 9/11 Attacks, Y = of terrorists, Z = mosque attendance) I guess you could, but has history taught us nothing? If I am a communist, am I a threat to you? If I am a muslim, am I a threat to you? If I have a gun, am I a threat to…
Also check the Federal government statistics as organized by the US gun industry lobby, the National Shooting Sports Federation: http://nssf.com/ Look up the ammo production and importation numbers, well over 12 billion per year, and I'm not sure which include the seconds from the DoD Lake City plant that ATK sells to us (the Pitman-Robinson point of sale tax data will).
Maybe also check the raw numbers of concealed carry licenses, the GAO publishes these, but 10 states now don't require a license. I'll add that at the local level of my home county, Jasper in Missouri, as of a year and a half ago, 5% of the age eligible population had a $$$ Missouri concealed carry license ("$$$" because our's is one of the most expensive, and any state's will do if you want to save money). All these numbers are rapidly increasing as the population ages, as well as the other obvious reasons.
Following the [X] I was wondering if we can build a model [Y] and some other data sources like [Z], etc ? (X = Reichstag Fire, Y = of potential communists, Z = communist party affiliation) (X = 9/11 Attacks, Y = of terrorists, Z = mosque attendance) I guess you could, but has history taught us nothing? If I am a communist, am I a threat to you? If I am a muslim, am I a threat to you? If I have a gun, am I a threat to…
thats why i used both causation and correlation. Correlation probably doesnt help here but until the model is built you can't really tell right?
Not publicly, so far as I know. Any time someone purchases a gun from a store, or from most dealers at gun-shows, a background check gets run. This, + paperwork and records residing with individual sellers are your only real sources of data, neither of which are public. The concept of a national gun registry has been debated hotly for quite a while, but that would definitely not be public if it existed.
oh ok.. then maybe credit card transactions if they dont buy it with cash instead
[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/19/mass-shooting-psych...
[2] http://www.livescience.com/21787-predicting-mass-shootings.h...
[3] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/02/25/probability-paradox-kills...
[4] https://bayesianbiologist.com/2013/06/06/how-likely-is-the-n...
ATF Listing of Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) - 2016 https://www.atf.gov/firearms/listing-federal-firearms-licens...
This might offer a start.
To get a first approximation on this, assume everyone in the US has access to a gun, then take a look at the FBI's yearly extended homicide tables, which breaks down US homicides by demographic factors, (and means of death) The first, obvious conclusion from FBI data is that a group making up approximately 4% of the US population commits about half the US homicides, mostly against others in that group, and the other…