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Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#21

Post by benjoffe »

tejaswiy wrote: post #14
jakeogh wrote: post #10

Nice visualization from NASA: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011719/11719-...

That is fascinating - Any idea how this was made?

Not entirely sure, but could be using the data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite[0].

This satellite orbits the Earth on the order of ~16 times per day which would not be enough granularity for the smoothness of this video, so I assume it's been combined with other weather data and advanced modelling to provide the smooth interpolation.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbiting_Carbon_Observatory

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#23

Post by Retric »

Fiahil wrote: post #13

So, when should we start our preparation for the apocalypse? 2020? 2025?

Never. The issue with climate change is it's not going to harm wealthy people, so it's not a problem for them. In other words bad shit might happen to 75% of the worlds population, but so what.

During the Irish potato famine, Ireland exported food. Think about that for a little bit. Throughout the entire period of the Famine, Ireland was exporting enormous quantities of food. Cormac O'Grada points out that, in Ireland before and after the famine, "Although the potato crop failed, the country was still producing and exporting more than enough grain crops to feed the population. But that was a 'money crop' and not a 'food crop' and could not be interfered with."[80] Net result, 1 million people died.

Yes, large numbers of people really are that evil.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#24

Post by Turing_Machine »

spdy wrote: post #7
programminggeek wrote: post #5

Assuming the fossil record and all of our measurements and assumptions about our measurements are correct. It's not like anyone was there, writing this stuff down at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core Ice was there and recorded it :/

The oldest ice core mentioned in that article is about 400 thousand years old. How does that prove anything about 4 million years ago?

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#25

Post by Turing_Machine »

wolfram74 wrote: post #9

No no, that just won't do. Math and modeling doesn't allow us to draw conclusions about things we can't directly observe. Someone had to be there and directly count the co2 molecules with their own eyes or it doesn't count as evidence.

Okay, I'm all ears (or, technically, eyes, since I'm reading this).

How does a 400,000 year old ice core show anything about conditions 4 million years ago?

Please be specific.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#26

Post by mturmon »

benjoffe wrote: post #21
tejaswiy wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is fascinating - Any idea how this was made?

Not entirely sure, but could be using the data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite[0]. This satellite orbits the Earth on the order of ~16 times per day which would not be enough granularity for the smoothness of this video, so I assume it's been combined with other weather data and advanced modelling to provide the smooth interpolation. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbiting_Carbon_Observatory

OCO blew up on launch, but OCO-2, its successor, has been producing data since 2014. This nature run was from 2006, which predates the OCO-2 era, and predates GOSAT, another CO2 satellite. It may overlap partly with SCIAMACHY, an ESA mission.

But in summary, I don't think the video was heavily constrained by actual CO2 observations, which are done only at a small number of sites on the ground (TCCON or FTIR). The video was probably constructed based on models of plant respiration (which is observed, indirectly, by remote sensing), winds (ditto, of course), and ground emitters.

OCO-2 has offered more significant constraints on global CO2, with a roughly 2km x 2km footprint (per pixel), 1ppm accuracy (in a ~400 ppm quantity), and global coverage every 16 days. There are some videos of observations (not models) at:

http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/galleries/Videos/

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#27

Post by Turing_Machine »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #25
wolfram74 wrote: post #9

No no, that just won't do. Math and modeling doesn't allow us to draw conclusions about things we can't directly observe. Someone had to be there and directly count the co2 molecules with their own eyes or it doesn't count as evidence.

Okay, I'm all ears (or, technically, eyes, since I'm reading this). How does a 400,000 year old ice core show anything about conditions 4 million years ago? Please be specific.

P.S. you can assume that I've taken differential equations and graduate-level courses in computer modeling and simulation, if that helps.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#28

Post by c0ur7n3y »

lossolo wrote: post #2

The worst thing is that we can't stop it when it will be too late. This doesn't work like a switch. Even if we would drastically cut all CO2 emission those levels would not drop in our lifetimes.

Here's an excellent presentation about that from a psychology perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnEO2ysnO6Q

Half of us are in denial, half of us are doing ineffective things, and half of us are in China.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#29

Post by Turing_Machine »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #25
wolfram74 wrote: post #9

No no, that just won't do. Math and modeling doesn't allow us to draw conclusions about things we can't directly observe. Someone had to be there and directly count the co2 molecules with their own eyes or it doesn't count as evidence.

Okay, I'm all ears (or, technically, eyes, since I'm reading this). How does a 400,000 year old ice core show anything about conditions 4 million years ago? Please be specific.

Now I see mention of an 800,000 year old core in that article. That's still not 4 million, or anything like it.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#30

Post by yongjik »

programminggeek wrote: post #5

Assuming the fossil record and all of our measurements and assumptions about our measurements are correct. It's not like anyone was there, writing this stuff down at the time.

Your phrase reminds me of the last question featured in this gem: http://www.snopes.com/photos/signs/sciencetest.asp
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