Are you guys confident that this can beat the market (i.e Betfair)? I would highly suspect that the answer is "not at all". Does this affect you?
Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
51–59 of 59 posts
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#52Football (it's Euro 2016) is a team sport so players are important but it's also very important how they play together as a team. Sometimes there are teams with average players that win competitions because they help each other much more than teams with star players (example: Leicester this season).
I don't know if you can model this taking in account single players, even if their performance in previous games could be an indicator about the strength of the team. We will see soon how the model fares.
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#53Football (it's Euro 2016) is a team sport so players are important but it's also very important how they play together as a team. Sometimes there are teams with average players that win competitions because they help each other much more than teams with star players (example: Leicester this season). I don't know if you can model this taking in account single players, even if their performance in previous games could…
"We will see soon how the model fares."
I'm no statistician but "soon" seems unlikely; wouldn't you need a lot of results in order to judge how good these predictions are? I'd like to know if the model can use data capped at any time period, so that matches from the past can be judged against what the model would predict.
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#54Football (it's Euro 2016) is a team sport so players are important but it's also very important how they play together as a team. Sometimes there are teams with average players that win competitions because they help each other much more than teams with star players (example: Leicester this season). I don't know if you can model this taking in account single players, even if their performance in previous games could…
"We will see soon how the model fares." I'm no statistician but "soon" seems unlikely; wouldn't you need a lot of results in order to judge how good these predictions are? I'd like to know if the model can use data capped at any time period, so that matches from the past can be judged against what the model would predict.
If they have data for the last 10 years they could use the model to predict thousands of games. That would start to be statistically significant for anybody.
However, I'm no statistician myself too but if the goal is to predict only 12 results how do we evaluate the predictions of the model? There should be a difference between 0 and 12 successes.
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#55Did you take care about home advantage?
I would be very happy to know more about math of your model
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
We scraped it from soccerway.com.
Are there any plans to make the clean dataset public? It would be nice to be able to play with it.
You can use the FIFA data in my soccer GitHub repo - https://github.com/octonion/soccer/tree/master/fifa
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#57Did you take care about home advantage? I would be very happy to know more about math of your model
We did, it helps quite a lot! Concerning the model, we use Gaussian process classification with a logit link function, a linear kernel and Expectation Propagation as inference method.
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
"We will see soon how the model fares." I'm no statistician but "soon" seems unlikely; wouldn't you need a lot of results in order to judge how good these predictions are? I'd like to know if the model can use data capped at any time period, so that matches from the past can be judged against what the model would predict.
If they have data for the last 10 years they could use the model to predict thousands of games. That would start to be statistically significant for anybody. However, I'm no statistician myself too but if the goal is to predict only 12 results how do we evaluate the predictions of the model? There should be a difference between 0 and 12 successes.
They are 5-2 after the first 3 days. The first game was a draw (72%-28%) and the third one a win for Wales (39%-61%). Two days and five games to go.
Re: Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference
#59It's an interesting prediction. The UI design is clear too!
Do you have the prediction for the final rankings and the winning %? Some predict France and Germany are in top 2.