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A Guaranteed Income for Every American

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221–230 of 387 posts

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it won't. The $10,000 left after the mandatory health payments would be a cut for many social security recipients, and many of those same people are also probably getting more than $3,000 a year in health care out of Medicare. Similar problems with Medicaid, it's worth a lot more than $3,000 to the people that are getting it (mostly because children). This is basically taking the desire to cut entitlement progr…

> More doctors will actually lead to lower prices It might if we had a free market for healthcare and if providers were the largest healthcare expense. But we don't, and they're not. Providers' take-home pay only amounts to about 10% of healthcare spending nationally[0]. Furthermore, the reason we don't have a competitive market is entirely due to the payer situation, not the providers. Providers (particularly hospit…

Are salaries a good measure of the income of doctors? I've read that more than half of doctors are self employed, and I suspect that their ownership stake in medical businesses produces a good portion of their incomes.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Basic Income is to work then it needs to be actually liveable and adjusted based upon the CoL in each area. There's a good argument to be made for a larger sum for the disabled who cannot work. But I'd be extremely opposed to any regional adjustments. If individual cities and states want to supplement the UBI, then that's up to them, but people moving out of high-cost areas and into low-cost ones is part of the…

The problem of course with that argument is that people also need to move into higher-cost areas in order to find jobs for certain industries. If there was no regional adjustment that encourages individuals to stay put. Poor people congregate in low-cost areas with low job opportunities. A CoL adjustment for San Francisco isn't the problem, but rather the fact that San Francisco costs so much to begin with.

> The problem of course with that argument is that people also need to move into higher-cost areas in order to find jobs for certain industries. If there was no regional adjustment that encourages individuals to stay put. Poor people congregate in low-cost areas with low job opportunities.

That isn't a problem. You get a concentration of people collecting a basic income who move into a low cost area, then they have money to buy housing and food and so on so there are jobs needed to construct housing and sell food, so then some of them get those jobs. Then they have even more money which leads to even more jobs etc. and soon enough the low cost area isn't so low cost, but that isn't a problem anymore because now they have jobs.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#223
post #73

Wouldn't the price of everything raise accordingly, so that you basically can't afford anything with the basic income?

Not quite: Consider a society with 2 members, Mr Rich (net worth $10M) and Mr. Poor (net worth $100). Mr. Rich is 100,000 X richer than Mr. Poor right now. Institute a ridiculous UBI of $1M/year for everyone. At the end of the year, Mr. Poor has $1,000,100 and Mr Rich has $11M but Mr Rich is now only ~ 11 X richer than Mr Poor. Now sure cheeseburgers at Micky-D's are now $700 but the fact has changed that before, Mr…

What are the pros and cons of this economic gravitational force?

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#224
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People under 21 years of age made up over a quarter of the U.S. population (27.1%)" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_State... ) So the population over 21 is about 230M.

Hmm... That's a higher fraction than I expected. It could be much lower 20 years from now.

Yeah, very well could be if the birth rate drops or life expectancy keeps rising.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#225

"The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare." How the hell does that happen politically? I would love to see basic income replacing a large portion of social programs in the stat…

What if they just said "ok everyone born before 2017 will get the old system (social security, etc), and everyone born in 2017 or later will get the new system. This way everyone alive and voting isn't losing anything they were expecting before. There would be a period of 80-100 years during which both systems are intact, but this somewhat inefficient period would end, leaving only the basic income system.

Regarding social security, that's good; it removes the entire AARP membership as no-voters. You could actually finesse it a bit by saying that anyone born after 2000 (so, turning 18 in 2018) will not be charged FICA when employed, and will not be eligible for SS when they retire -- AND anyone born after 1990 (or perhaps even earlier?) can also opt out, stop paying FICA, start getting BI, and get a tax credit good for their FICA payments to date. Retirees would stop entering the SS system in 2065 and the last survivors would finally die around 2101. The SS system would have to be funded for the rest of the century but for a declining number of beneficiaries.

The other many, many forms of social payments and supplements need individual consideration. It's not all "welfare"; one small example that occurs to me is seriously handicapped (paraplegic, e.g.) people getting financial assistance to cover in-home care. Would the proposed BI adequately cover that? If it wouldn't, this small set of people would be significantly worse off.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What does inefficiency matter if there is not enough work for everyone anyway? I am using the term "efficiency" in a technical sense. An inefficiency means that there exists an alternative way of distributing resources (including time) such that no one is worse off, and at least one person is better off. By this definition if their is an inefficient, then we would have a strictly better world if we could remove that…

I obviously have to disagree with your analysis, let me offer an alternative. The difference between the two scenarios is the difference between value(X) + value(8 hours leisure time) and value(X) + 2 * value(3 hours leisure time). Therefore in case the value of 3 hours of leisure time exceeds half of the value of 8 hours of leisure time, i.e. the value of additional leisure time diminishes sufficiently quickly, the…

Because value(X) is constant, your observation boils down to a comparison of value(8 hours leisure time) and value(X) + 2 * value(3 hours leisure time).

I did consider the value of leisure time, which I arbitrarily set to $100/hr (I just called this time, but unsold time can be exchanged 1:1 for leisure time). You seem to be objecting to my assumption that the marginal value of time is constant for the workers. I agree with this objection (in fact, I raised it myself in the footnote). However, even without this simplifing assumption, there are still situations where selling ones time is a net positive.

>By restricting the entire world to the two actors wanting to produce one X one can keep money out of the equation.

My entire argument can be made without invoking money. Indeed, I believe the non monetary form is more compelling, but also more abstract. Again, I will invoke the idea indifference. We say that things X and Y have equal value to person A if she is just as happy receiving 1 X as she is receiving 1 Y. With this concept we can replace "money" with any object of value and have an equivalent analysis. Of course, the selected object would itself have diminishing returns, but this is equivalent to an increasing marginal value of ones time, which I have already addressed. Ultimately, to properly explore this route, I would formalize an abstract notion of "utility" as an equivalence class over indifference. I hope this explanation makes sense, doing it properly would take far to much effort to put into an internet comment.

>where is this money coming from, From selling the X to the society?

The above framework provides a nice way to sidestep this issue. Let U be the utility function. So U(5 hours) is the value of 5 hours of time. [0]. For simplicity, assume that A and B share a utility function.

Suppose that A and B are not selling X, but rather using it themselves (for simplicity, suppose that X is a widget that A and B can share without conflict). We know that X is worth at least 2 * U(5 hours). Suppose that 2 * U(5 hours) > U(8 hours). In this case, by my previous argument, it would be preferable for A to do all of the work, and B to barter something worth between U(8 hours) - U(5 hours) and U(5 hours) for his share of X.

Ultimately, this argument is just a rediscovery of the value of trade and specialization. To translate a minimum wage into this framework, we would define some artificial lower bound for the compensation A needs to be provided in a trade such as this. If this minimum value is less than U(8 hours) - U(5 hours) or U(5 hours), then we are just influencing how wealth gets distributed between A and B. However, if the minimum value to big, than the above trade is prohibited, even though we have seen that it is strictly beneficial.

>will this raise the price or decrease the monetary value of an hour of work?

What do you mean by "monetary value of an hour of work". Returning to a more realistic employer/employee example, there are two important monetary values: the value the employee gives to an hour of work, and the value the employer gives to an hour of work.

From the employer perspective, the value of an hour of work is V(X)/T, where V(X) is the value of X [1], and T is the time spent making it. V(X) is independent of how long it took to make, which means that as the work takes longer, the value of an hour goes down to the employer.

From the employee perspective, the issue is a question of their utility function. Assuming a reasonable utility function, I would expect the marginal value of an hour to increase to the employee. That is to say that the employee needs more money to be indifferent to working the last 2 hours than she does for any of the prior 2 hours. If this is the case, than the value of an hour to the employee goes up with the time.

[0] More formally, U(5 hours) is the equivalance class of objects for which the person would be indifferent to spending 5 hours of time to obtain.

[1] Or rather, V(X) is the labor-excluded profit of X.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#227

Kind of a meta comment, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the basic income movement was (for the most part) started and promoted by an intelligence agency. After reading about the literary magazines and abstract art that the CIA funded I started thinking what a current program would look like. I think it would look like how basic income is developing.

At the very least it seems like UBI would further centralize power within government by simply funneling even more money into it. Depends on your POV whether or not you think this is a good thing.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#228

"The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare." How the hell does that happen politically? I would love to see basic income replacing a large portion of social programs in the stat…

Yeah, it won't. The $10,000 left after the mandatory health payments would be a cut for many social security recipients, and many of those same people are also probably getting more than $3,000 a year in health care out of Medicare. Similar problems with Medicaid, it's worth a lot more than $3,000 to the people that are getting it (mostly because children). This is basically taking the desire to cut entitlement progr…

> The $10,000 left after the mandatory health payments would be a cut for many social security recipients

The easy way to do this is to give people a one-time election between social security and the basic income, so that nobody can object that they're not better off. Anybody who isn't at or close to retirement will choose the basic income because it begins paying immediately, the lifetime payments are higher and they wouldn't have to pay social security tax anymore. Then in 20 years or so there would be no one left on social security and it could be discontinued.

> Similar problems with Medicaid, it's worth a lot more than $3,000 to the people that are getting it (mostly because children).

It seems like your argument is that we can't do it because there are a relatively small number of people who would be better off under the existing system. But by that logic we could never change anything, even if the net benefits are very large, as long as there is anyone who is better off under the status quo.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In difficult times people stop spending money, even with UBI. This means less income to spread around, the solution, print more money = inflation. This is... not really correct. It's true that expansionary monetary policy is often practiced in times of economic recession, but that's not really because there's 'less income to spread around'. And the reason expansionary monetary policy is practiced isn't to give peop…

> Expansionary monetary policy reduces the costs of loans and investments How does it do that? Suppose I want to borrow $1M to build a factory, but nobody (banks, venture capitalists, whatever) can afford to invest in my endeavor. So the fed prints a bunch of money, causing 5% inflation. Now the bank can more easily afford to loan me $1M, because that $1M is worth less. But now I need a $1.05M loan to build my factor…

> How does it do that?

By lowering interest rates which encourages borrowing and thus spending and thus economic activity.

> So the fed prints a bunch of money, causing 5% inflation.

Printing money causes monetary inflation, but does not directly cause price inflation so you don't need 1.05M to build your factory. Printing money can eventually lead to price inflation if too much money is printed for too long, but that doesn't mean all money printing causes price inflation as that lever can be turned both ways. Lower interest rates to spur spending and get the economy moving again and then once out of danger raise them again.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#230
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But insurance for those isn't.

Just checked healthsherpa plan prices for a 64-year-old, and it came to almost $900/mo with a $5000 deductible. Maybe it's possible to radically reduce healthcare costs, but we should probably do that first before eliminating Medicare.

The problem is eliminating Medicare is essentially a prerequisite to meaningfully reducing healthcare costs. As long as there is a deep pocket to pay whatever outrageous prices people are charged, people will keep getting charged outrageous prices. Take away the money and the price would come down in a hurry.
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