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A Guaranteed Income for Every American

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171–180 of 387 posts

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only will the voting public oppose many of these cuts, corporations (and lobbying groups representing professionals such as doctors, or AARP) will oppose them. And the latter is more ominous to me since they have the lobbying muscle in place. >create/fund residency programs Don't several medical lobbying groups actively coerce the government to limit the number of new doctors that can be minted, both overall and…

> Don't several medical lobbying groups actively coerce the government to limit the number of new doctors that can be minted, both overall and in given areas of practice? Not really. The AMA is often blamed for limiting the number of medical school slots available, but they have nothing to do with that - it's capped by the AAMC, which has been very deliberately raising the number of medical school positions in the US…

>...Hospitals would typically make a loss on residency programs otherwise; contrary to what some people believe, they're actually quite expensive to operate.

How does that work? Residents make very little money and do a lot of work. How are they not a profit center for hospitals?

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#172
post #73

Wouldn't the price of everything raise accordingly, so that you basically can't afford anything with the basic income?

Its a really difficult analysis.

Take a food stuff. In theory the current price is the cross section of supply and demand (price equilibrium), your idea is that with BI we have just increased demand while supply remains unchanged naturally price equilibrium changes resulting in a price increase. However, with a growth in demand, the market should respond and supply should increase to meet the increased demand, thus readjusting price equalibrium. Obviously this is for a food stuff not something more finite like housing.

Still food stuffs or housing, we don't really live in a free capitalist market as much as we would like to believe. There are many government subsidies artificially impacting current supply/demand/price. One example, farm subsidies where farmers are paid to not grow crops/farm their land (~$1.3B/year). I think its ridiculous, but economists more knowledgeable than me (even if on the farmer's dime) argue its necessary to keep supply artificially low to keep prices artificially high otherwise the entire industry would fail and we would all be starving.

Assuming BI did have such an overall impact on the prices of everything or even just the basics (food stuffs, housing, gas, etc...) there are all types of mechanisms the government currently employees to artificially raise and lower prices and special interests won't be going away with BI.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I meant to let no viable jobs die or automate. Are you saying you'd outlaw self-service gas pumps and checkout stations? Robotic assembly lines and autonomous vehicles? A large fraction of the population has no distinguishing skills. That segment of the population is going to find itself with ever fewer ways to earn a living.

That was meant to read »non-viable«, i.e. if customers are not willing to pay enough for a product or service so that a full time worker can live on the salary, then efficiency must improve, the job must be automate away entirely or the business must go out of business. I consider neither simply exploiting the employees nor subsidizing the business and customers by giving benefits to the employees a good solution. Be…

Sorry. I thought you were saying that jobs that are currently viable should not be allowed to be automated away. I was wrong.

I am in favor of automation (for the same reasons you are, I think), and automation does harm unskilled workers.

Between the present day and the future golden age of robotics that we both desire is a period of time in which some fraction of the population, who have specialized skills that are hard to automate, will work for a living, while another fraction (probably larger than the first) of the population will have nothing to offer in return for money. I don't see any way around the first group subsidizing the existence of the second.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#174
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm upper middle class, and I can already barely afford to live in this country. What we need isn't more taxes but a more judicious use of taxes that are already being levied. An effective and workable UBI scheme would replace all other forms of means-tested social support payments, foreign aid, and expenditures on meaningless warfare overseas. In such a perfect-world version of the United States UBI suddenly becomes…

I'm going to guess you either bought a house you can't afford or have more than 2 kids or have a lot of student loan debt. (Not judging at all) Correct?

Zero student debt, one kid, and I'll never own real estate, as I've explained in prior HN comments, i.e. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11495713

I can barely afford to live in the US because I live in a pretty expensive part of it. I'll blindly guess that my zip code is the second most expensive one in NYC. My thesis is that you (and I, and my family, and everyone else who has ever lived) live only once. I refuse to live a gazillion miles away from work while wasting countless hours of my life commuting. This costs me, as the most desirable areas of Manhattan are also the most expensive.

To be able to afford such a lifestyle, I have to make a considerable amount of money. This leads to my family being ineligible for any kind of freebies from the government. We're forced to look on while other families receive handouts in the form of food stamps, free school lunches, free healthcare and subsidized housing. Many of those families cheat the system by finding loopholes in eligibility criteria. They sneak through and enjoy significant free comforts on my dime... and that of every other taxpayer in the country.

So yes, I can barely afford to live here because I'm being taxed to the gills while freebies are flying to countless others who don't deserve it. I'd much rather cancel the whole rigmarole and just flat out pay everyone the same basic income every year. At least my family will get its fair share of it.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#175
The way I understand the motivation behind UBI is that it is inspired by the notion that we have (mostly) automated production of goods and therefore human work has been (mostly) delegated to machines. It is therefore perfectly reasonable for people to receive UBI so they can purchase all the robot-produced goods.

The reason I am skeptical of such a view is that production of goods is a tiny fraction of the work humans actually do. A lot of people these days work on solving problems, not on producing goods. And we are far from being short on problems to solve... Alzheimer's, clean energy, climate change...

Saying that humans should not need to work is like saying: This is it. We're done here. This is the world we want.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#176
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is when you give the same subsidies to a healthy 22 year old who lives with his parents and a single mother of three, we're dealing with one of two situations: 1) the subsidies are sufficient for both groups to do OK. This is fine in theory, but taxes would have to go up by a lot to have the minimum take care of the needy with the largest expenses. The UBI would have to be closer to 25,000 USD. If it's poli…

I think you are probably right that a welfare system that does not consider the cost of dependents is likely misguided. And we're in agreement that properly raising three kids is a tremendous undertaking that demands either a whole bunch of money or almost all of your time. I take issue, though, with the idea that a family of 4 living on other people's money should spend so extravagantly. You do not need a car. You n…

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Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#177
post #133
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read the article, the BI being proposed would drop off after you began earning more than $30k and the drop would stop at $60k in earned income. I imagine a rather high percentage of people living in San Francisco already earn well above $60k annually.

I've never understood why subsidies like this almost always come with income phaseouts. What's wrong with giving everyone a basic income? People who make a lot of money would more than repay it in taxes, and taxes would have to go up on higher earners, but that's not a real problem.

> People who make a lot of money would more than repay it in taxes, and taxes would have to go up on higher earners

Doesn't that amount to the same thing?

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#178
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Well then cut down working hours. This introduces inefficiency. One worker working 8 hours is more useful than 2 workers working 4 hours. While this might end up being a good trade off (as workers might be willing to sell 4 hours of work for less than half the price of 8 hours), attempting to legislate this would be a market distortion. >Then have sufficient minimum wages. Minimum wages distort the market. >Also uni…

This introduces inefficiency. One worker working 8 hours is more useful than 2 workers working 4 hours. While this might end up being a good trade off (as workers might be willing to sell 4 hours of work for less than half the price of 8 hours), attempting to legislate this would be a market distortion. What does inefficiency matter if there is not enough work for everyone anyway? It may be a problem during the trans…

>What does inefficiency matter if there is not enough work for everyone anyway?

I am using the term "efficiency" in a technical sense. An inefficiency means that there exists an alternative way of distributing resources (including time) such that no one is worse off, and at least one person is better off. By this definition if their is an inefficient, then we would have a strictly better world if we could remove that inefficiency without causing any secondary effects.

Suppose we have a widget X that can be produced by person A in 8 hours, or by persons A and B in 10 man-hours (at 5 hours each). Further, assume that both A and B value their time at a constant $100/hr [0].

Suppose that we live in the second world, where A and B each spend 5 hours working on X. At the end of the day, A and B are both down by 5 hours of their time, and up by $500, and society is up by 1 X.

Suppose that, the next day, B hire A to do his share of the work. We have defined that A can do the entire job 8 hours, which means that this transaction only add 3 hours of work to A's day, meaning that A would be willing to do this for only $300. At the end of this day, A is down by 8 hours, and up by $800, B is up by $200, and society is up by 1 X. Again, A breaks even in this exchange, and society still has just as many Xs, however by B got $200 out of thin air.

We can modify the above example to where B pays A $400, in which case both A and B can $100 worth of value out of this exchange. This extra wealth is not just fictitious money. In doing this exchange, we saved 2 hours of human time, which is a real, limited, resource.

Of course, in the above situation, there is no way of deciding how exactly how much B should pay A, all we know is that any value between $300 and $500 produces an efficient system. However, we may, as a society prefer, the situation where the profit is split, and both A and B walk away with a surplus $100. In fact, we may prefer this possibility so much, that we are willing to destroy $2 of wealth somewhere else in the system to assure that A and B split the surplus. The argument for a BI is that a minimum wage achieves the desired result by destroying wealth (in the form of exchanges that never get made), whereas a BI can achieve the same desired goals while destroying less wealth. If that is the case, then a BI is strictly better than a minimum wage.

Of course, a BI itself introduces a market distortion (in the form of tax). The questions that need to be answered is how much wealth does the BI tax destroy, how much wealth does the minimum wage destroy, and how effective are both the BI and minimum wage at achieving the social goal of providing resources for all citizens.

>I am not sure what you want to say here, seems like it does no harm and provides no benefits.

In a society of perfectly rational actors, this would be correct. However, having multiple contributors to the effective marginal tax rate obscures the issue, and is how we get into situations where we have unreasonably high (in some cases >100%) rates.

[0] This is clearly a simplification, but it should not affect the analysis. The important thing is that there exists an "indifference" curve, whereby for any quantity of time, there exists a dollar value at which the worker is equally happy getting paid for doing the work as he is with doing nothing and not getting paid. The only potentially important assumption about this curve that I can think of is that the derivative is non-decreasing. This means that if I am willing to sell my first hour of labor at $100, I will sell my next hour for no less than $100, although I may need more than an extra $100 to be willing to spend an extra hour.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#179
post #175

The way I understand the motivation behind UBI is that it is inspired by the notion that we have (mostly) automated production of goods and therefore human work has been (mostly) delegated to machines. It is therefore perfectly reasonable for people to receive UBI so they can purchase all the robot-produced goods. The reason I am skeptical of such a view is that production of goods is a tiny fraction of the work huma…

[deleted]

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed the part about people under 21, that should cut off another ~25% from your estimate. Medicare + Medicaid + Social Security is well over 2 billion, so I think it's pretty close.

I tried to get rid of people under 21 by reducing the population from 320M to 300M, but I guess I should look and see what the actual numbers are.

"People under 21 years of age made up over a quarter of the U.S. population (27.1%)" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_State...)

So the population over 21 is about 230M.

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