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A Guaranteed Income for Every American

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Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#51

Post by ericd »

Tycho wrote: post #36
DanBC wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI isn't about libertarianism, it's about reducing the fucking stupid disincentives built into current benefits systems. Instead of telling people that they can have this money only if they work less than 16 hours a week, or only if they stay disabled, just give them the money. That way you don't need to employ doctors to see if someone is still as disabled as they were last year, and people who get a part time job…

But it might create even bigger disincentives that have a much more universal effect, which could be disasterous.

13k is still poverty level, I imagine most would not be fully content at that level.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#53

Post by Tycho »

leereeves wrote: post #39
Tycho wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it might create even bigger disincentives that have a much more universal effect, which could be disasterous.

There are good reasons to think it won't. People continue to work after they have enough money not to; people making $40K per year go to night school to try to increase their income. Most people continue to want more after their basic needs are met. And beyond money, work can give a sense of purpose and a connection to other people.

But we're not talking about 'most' people. We're talking about all people. What about the people who think to themselves, I don't want to work, I want to live off welfare. Now there will be more of those people (especially since technology satisfies more and more leisure needs for just the price of an internet connection). Also as people grow up in such a society, they don't have that driving motive in the back of their mind that if they have to eventually find employment to survive. How will such people turn out as adults?

The promise of UBI is saving money and unlocking more human potential (by allowing more risk taking, or letting artists pursue their art, or whatever). But if you think of the need to be productive (for survival) as a force/pressure that has shaped the complex system we call society since the dawn of civilisation, then I can imagine that removing that force in a large nation could result in something extremely dysfunctional or even horrifying.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#54

Post by JorgeGT »

bkeroack wrote: post #47
Tycho wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it might create even bigger disincentives that have a much more universal effect, which could be disasterous.

The people who are likely to drop out of the labor market are almost certainly not the motivated, high-productivity workers that actually benefit society. High achievers tend to be motivated by things like passion, creativity, need for recognition, etc, not purely income.

> The people who are likely to drop out of the labor market are almost certainly not the motivated, high-productivity workers that actually benefit society

The people who are likely to drop out of their job are plumbers, dishwashers, garbage collectors, miners, mail carriers, highway maintainers, taxi drivers, manual fruit pickers and the rest of those performing soul-crushing jobs that actually allow society to keep running.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#55

Post by ido »

dclowd9901 wrote: post #35

Not a fan of the decreasing benefits at $60k. That creates a huge donut hole for those making 59k and then get a 3% promotion. All of a sudden they've take a paycut. Make it a flat income. (Also, should be closer to $15 or $18k a year).

The cut is gradual (so that each extra $1 you earn, less than $1 is reduced from your benefit). So you will never end up with a paycut by making more money.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#56

Post by clamprecht »

throwaway13337 wrote: post #4

"The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare." How the hell does that happen politically? I would love to see basic income replacing a large portion of social programs in the stat…

What if they just said "ok everyone born before 2017 will get the old system (social security, etc), and everyone born in 2017 or later will get the new system. This way everyone alive and voting isn't losing anything they were expecting before. There would be a period of 80-100 years during which both systems are intact, but this somewhat inefficient period would end, leaving only the basic income system.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#57

Post by gizmo686 »

dclowd9901 wrote: post #35

Not a fan of the decreasing benefits at $60k. That creates a huge donut hole for those making 59k and then get a 3% promotion. All of a sudden they've take a paycut. Make it a flat income. (Also, should be closer to $15 or $18k a year).

This proposal decreases benefits between $30k and $60k. The total delta in benefits would be $6.5k. Assuming this decrease occurs linearly, this comes out to a marginal tax of 21%.

The current marginal tax rate for someone (unmarried) making between 37k and 91k is 25% [0]

This means that over this $30k interval, people would be facing about a 46% effective marginal tax [1]. The current top bracket is only 39.6% and does not kick in (for unmarried individuals) until $415k.

While this proposal does create a silly marginal tax rate, it is still below 100%, which means that making more income still leads to more money in your pocket. Our current system, if you count the value of non-monotary aid, often exceeds a marginal rate of 100%, which is a far more serious problem.

I agree that the UBI should be flat, because anything else is equivalent to changing our tax brackets; and if we want to do that, we should just change our tax brackets.

[0] https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-15-53.pdf

[1] This number might be slightly different if the two taxes interact with each other.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#58

Post by danbruc »

dclowd9901 wrote: post #35

Not a fan of the decreasing benefits at $60k. That creates a huge donut hole for those making 59k and then get a 3% promotion. All of a sudden they've take a paycut. Make it a flat income. (Also, should be closer to $15 or $18k a year).

If I did not misread the article, the suggestion is do drop the benefits from 13k to 6.5k in the income range from 30k to 60k. That means you lose about 22 cents of benefits for every additional dollar of income so you will still have a net gain. I can not see how an increasing income can lead to a reduced net income unless the combination of decreasing benefits and increasing taxes exceeds one Dollar per additional Dollar of income.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#59

Post by riskable »

teddyh wrote: post #6
Roritharr wrote: post #3

Once again no answer to the main Question: What to do with people that blow their UBI by the 2nd of each month on SAAS Startups? Let them starve? Go without Shelter?

From the article: > Some people will still behave irresponsibly and be in need before that deposit arrives, but the UBI will radically change the social framework within which they seek help: Everybody will know that everybody else has an income stream. It will be possible to say to the irresponsible what can’t be said now: “We won’t let you starve before you get your next deposit, but it’s time for you to get your a…

The problem here is the assumption that everyone on Medicaid, Social Security, etc is capable of spending money responsibly. Take away their benefits and hand them some cash.

This will result in millions of vulnerable seniors and mentally disabled individuals being scammed out of their money each month. Whether it be "tech support" scammers or local fraudsters or even simply not being able to budget money (at a basic level) these folks will be in trouble.

I live with (and care for) a mentally disabled individual (IQ: ~60) that receives benefits through Social Security, Medicaid, and other government programs. If it were not for our help in managing these benefits she would spend her money (which is supposed to be for food/living expenses) on Amazon on $100 anime-themed coffee cups and similar widgets the moment she receives it.

Not to mention the fact that she will never understand how to sign up for such services or know who to trust when receiving services. If someone in a lab coat told her they were a government doctor and she "had to pay" for her upcoming appointment she'd likely just hand over all her money. There's no way to "educate" her out of this problem. I've taught her all sorts of things... many times and I'll have to teach her again and again.

It's not so dissimilar to walking an old person through accessing a web app/site over and over again ("no, that's the search bar"). Handing vulnerable people money every month won't solve their problems.

It's a great idea for the economy in general though! Just don't do away with government services for the needy. Especially medical care.

Re: A Guaranteed Income for Every American

#60

Post by blazespin »

danbruc wrote: post #41

Several years ago I thought a universal basic income would be a good idea but the longer I thought about it the more that went away. Now I can't even tell which problem it tries to solve. There won't be enough work for everyone in the future? Well then cut down working hours instead of having half the population work full time and pay for the other half. Some jobs don't provide enough income to make a living? Then ha…

"Well then cut down working hours instead of having half the population work full time and pay for the other half" That doesn't work. The reality is, and I'm sorry to say, but the required IQ to be economically relevant is increasing every year. Your plan doesn't work because you can't spread out the work that way.

Increasing minimum wages will only just accelerate automation and exacerbate the problem.

My concern about UBI is that it won't properly track inflation and will quickly become not enough and all the welfare programs are gone, so people are doubly screwed.

Other than that, I like it. I'd like to see more "pay to go to school" programs, though. We'd end up with fewer Trumps...

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