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Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#11

Post by dragonwriter »

xufi wrote: post #10
dragonwriter wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 5% of people qualify for unemployment benefits I believe Incorrect; the headline rate does not only include those qualified for unemployment benefits (it does only include that part of the working-age non-institutionalized population out-of-work and actively looking for work, though.)

Right, Doesnt the ones who are qualified add up to about %18 or so with the unreported numbers?

I'm not sure what you are trying to ask, but the most inclusive labor force underutilization measures (U-6) is only 9.7%, not 18%.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#12

Post by dragonwriter »

ianai wrote: post #4

This doesn't worry me so much on it's own. You have to contrast it with new unemployment rates.

> You have to contrast it with new unemployment rates.

IIRC, the concern is that hiring slowdowns tend to lead increases in unemployment. But, yes, the unemployment rate (not just the headline rate, but all of the alternative measures from BLS as well) is still dropping.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#14

Post by dforrestwilson1 »

baron816 wrote: post #8
dforrestwilson1 wrote: post #5

The unemployment rate is not a good metric. The labor force participation rate is more inclusive, and declined for the 2nd month in a row. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/business/economy/jobs-repo... Furthermore the quality of available jobs appears to have declined.

> The unemployment rate is not a good metric. The labor force participation rate is more inclusive LFP rate is not better than the unemployment rate. There are a lot of factors that go into labor force participation, and demographics is probably the biggest. It peaked in the late 90s and has pretty much followed the same downward trend since: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa...

You're making my point for me. Demographics matter. The older bubble demographic nearing retirement, and the new bubble demographic is not taking up the slack.

http://www.randalolson.com/wp-content/uploads/united_states_...

Unemployment also ignores the disability insurance bubble.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#16

Post by kevenwang0531 »

News media ought to pay more attention to the confidence intervals associated with these metrics. Uncertainty is always present in statistics and the revisions to these numbers rarely get reported (it was reported in this case to fit the tone of the story). News articles like these have a powerful psychological effect on the public, so shouldn't the media do a more responsible job by saying "oh by the way, it's 38,000 jobs +- 50,000"?

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#17

Post by nfriedly »

waspleg wrote: post #13

Got laid off yesterday. Hooray.

That's a bummer. You probably already know about these, but just in case you don't, HN has monthy job-finding threads:

* Who is hiring? (June 2016): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11814828

* Who wants to be hired? (June 2016): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11814830

And, if you feel like freelancing:

* Freelancer? Seeking freelancer? (June 2016): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11814829

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#18

Post by stinkytaco »

dforrestwilson1 wrote: post #14
baron816 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The unemployment rate is not a good metric. The labor force participation rate is more inclusive LFP rate is not better than the unemployment rate. There are a lot of factors that go into labor force participation, and demographics is probably the biggest. It peaked in the late 90s and has pretty much followed the same downward trend since: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa...

You're making my point for me. Demographics matter. The older bubble demographic nearing retirement, and the new bubble demographic is not taking up the slack. http://www.randalolson.com/wp-content/uploads/united_states_... Unemployment also ignores the disability insurance bubble.

Not taking up the slack implies there's something wrong with the new bubble demographic. There appears to be less slack to take up. As you pointed out, lower quality jobs.

Re: Hiring dropped sharply in May, the weakest in 6 years

#19

Post by dev1n »

dragonwriter wrote: post #12
ianai wrote: post #4

This doesn't worry me so much on it's own. You have to contrast it with new unemployment rates.

> You have to contrast it with new unemployment rates. IIRC, the concern is that hiring slowdowns tend to lead increases in unemployment. But, yes, the unemployment rate (not just the headline rate, but all of the alternative measures from BLS as well) is still dropping.

the unemployment rate dropped because more people left the workforce and became discouraged workers (a la haven't searched for work in the past 4 weeks).
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