Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kotlin is a JVM language, and doesn't really compete with Java (the two are "friendly"). Rust is a low-level language which is much better suited than the JVM to memory-restricted environments, but JVM languages (including Java) are much easier (therefore cheaper) to develop, so are a better choice for server-side applications. Go and Java are indeed very similar, but I find that Go is better for smaller programs and…
Yeah, Rust is not the real adversary. The real adversaries are Objective-C, Go, Swift, .NET Native, C++14, OCaml, Haskell and even node.js. Monitoring tools similar to VisualVM will come. Nowadays my Java code is either targeted at Android or maintenance of existing enterprise code. Other than that we aren't using it for greenfield projects.
In addition, in smaller/less-critical projects, Java was an accidental leader in a short period of time where the competition disappeared and Java itself was novel, but it was never "supposed" to be there to begin with. VB and Delphi were very popular choices early on. I'd estimate that even when Java was the shiny new thing, VB, Delphi and other rapid-development languages had a larger share of the market than Go, Node, Ruby, Python, Haskell and OCaml combined today. And frankly, I don't see companies developing en masse large-scale applications in C++14. Unless you have very specific needs, there's just no reason to go there and pay a higher development cost, and if you do have those needs, you're probably already there.
In large corporations (including trendy ones, like Google, Amazon, Netflix, Twitter and many more, let alone more conservative ones) the JVM still reigns supreme, with competition lagging far, far behind. I'm not saying it won't eat into the JVM's market share -- although they're mostly cannibalizing one another -- but I don't see any potential leader in the pack. It's possible that there won't be one, with many sharing the cake.
So I think that (again, with the notable exception of .NET) the non-JVM market is composed of novelty-seeking organizations and a share that wasn't Java's to begin with, but accidentally was for a short while (the two segments intersect).