Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

Post by clock_tower » Thu, Jun 02, 2016, 6:10 PM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #28

clock_tower wrote: post #16

This is pressing two letters, and you're explicitly told to press them in a way which feels random (which is going to be culturally determined). Aristotle would say that this is about habit, not free will -- unless you're opting to ignore the instructions.

Can you elaborate on how one's perception of randomness is subject to cultural bias? You do have to realize that frequent runs of repeated characters are expected to appear in a truly random sequence, but that's more a matter of basic reasoning (or perhaps education) than culture.

Post by IanCal » Thu, Jun 02, 2016, 6:11 PM UTC

chki wrote: post #32

smoyer wrote: post #8

I counted up from 0 in binary (excluding leading zeroes) and even with a completely predictable series, it only did slightly better than 50%. I was expecting more (that on-line game of 20 questions was freaky good).

Which 20 questions game?

Post by emblem21 » Thu, Jun 02, 2016, 6:12 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #42

emblem21 wrote: post #38

It guesses what key you'll hit next. It has a naive assumption of when I will hit it next. (Eventually)

So?

Post by Bromskloss » Thu, Jun 02, 2016, 6:12 PM UTC

ncallaway wrote: post #26

GTP wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your premise "open the source code for this, run it in node, get the probability of guessing f or d, and then guess the one that's lower" goes straight against the explicit request to try to type randomly, everything that follows althoug may be correct doesn't apply here.

Choosing to ignore the rules as prescribed is a great demonstration of free will.

Post by coldtea » Thu, Jun 02, 2016, 6:12 PM UTC

tedsanders wrote: post #12

mkagenius wrote: post #10

I am stuck at around 0.76. I think its flawed - Whatever I press it never changes by more than 1% How can the prediction for 'f' be 0.764 and for 'd' be 0.763 - they don't add up to 1.

It isn't telling you the odds of what you'll do next. It's telling you how often its hidden predictions been right so far. So if you've hit 100 keys, and it secretly guessed 75 of them right, it will display 0.75. The more you play, the more slowly this number moves, because each additional guess has a smaller effect on the overall average.