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Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

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Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#11

Post by foonamefoo »

hugh wrote: post #7
Electro wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make a good point, the main reason the EU started was to prevent wars and it has worked. Since the formation of the EU, there has been no wars between its member nations, and that's saying a lot when sneezing in a foreign country was about all the justification needed. Merely connecting people won't act as a barrier to war, but I think forming a universal governing structure would; however unlikely it is to actua…

Actually I think the European thing is just an example of a broader phenomenon: democracies never go to war with other democracies. (I went googling to make sure that was true, and found this: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/demowar.htm which goes through all the potential counterexamples. So I'll amend my statement to say that democracies hardly ever go to war with other democracies.) So the idea is really a bit red…

I'm glad you went through and found that; the US has ravaged third-world democracies for a quite a while now.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#12

Post by eru »

foonamefoo wrote: post #11
hugh wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I think the European thing is just an example of a broader phenomenon: democracies never go to war with other democracies. (I went googling to make sure that was true, and found this: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/demowar.htm which goes through all the potential counterexamples. So I'll amend my statement to say that democracies hardly ever go to war with other democracies.) So the idea is really a bit red…

I'm glad you went through and found that; the US has ravaged third-world democracies for a quite a while now.

And what about the McDonald's-rule: "Two countries with McDonald's don't go to war with each other."?

Does it hold up?

Edit: The answer is in the linked page. (It's "No, but better than the other rule.")

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#13

Post by andreyf »

foonamefoo wrote: post #11
hugh wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I think the European thing is just an example of a broader phenomenon: democracies never go to war with other democracies. (I went googling to make sure that was true, and found this: http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/demowar.htm which goes through all the potential counterexamples. So I'll amend my statement to say that democracies hardly ever go to war with other democracies.) So the idea is really a bit red…

I'm glad you went through and found that; the US has ravaged third-world democracies for a quite a while now.

the US has ravaged third-world democracies for a quite a while now

That's only a counterexample if the US is a democracy... :)

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#14

Post by SuperThread »

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #4

I love Scott, but this shows a fundamental lack of understanding for why wars happen. The American Civil War comes to mind as the first counterexample. There are dozens more. Nations don't resort to armed conflict because the citizens don't know each other that well. In fact, the counterexamples are very interesting -- I'm thinking of German presence in Great Britain before WWII. People demonize citizens of other nat…

I think that you have to distinguish between wars in which the outcome is uncertain—that is, wars in which real risk to both sides is present—and wars that are essentially a big guy beating up a little guy.

I agree that the former kind of war would happen with the same frequency if this pen pal idea were implemented—the motivation for such wars need to be large enough to overcome the personal danger that they produce, and so would easily overshadow semipersonal connections with citizens of the opposite side. I think that the latter would very much be deterred, though, because the motivation for such wars can be miniscule, to the point where even the humanization of the "enemy" could be a significant deterrent.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#16

Post by tyler »

klein_waffle wrote: post #15

I have a new proposal. Let's force all families to write letters to each other occasionally and even phone each other. This should stop domestic violence, no?

Well... Meaningful communication between members of families prone to domestic violence, certainly could be helpful.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#17

Post by DaniFong »

mynameishere wrote: post #3

The elites make the wars and the elites already know each other. http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/1424016.jpg?v=1&c=ViewIma... http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/3359879.jpg?v=1&c=ViewIma... http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/triumph/hitler-chamber... http://www.btinternet.com/~sbishop100/alicky9.jpg

That's true. But it's becoming less true. Consider how long the anti-vietnam-war movement took to get started. Now consider that Iran is one of the first countries where there is popular preemptive dissent against conflict in the USA. Things may be bad, but one some dimensions, they're getting better.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#18

Post by duke »

pc wrote: post #2

The underlying assumption -- that social connections will act as a barrier to war -- seems pretty flawed. Extensive connections didn't prevent any of the European wars between, say, 1700 and 1945. A country is more likely to have an internal war than one with any given outside nation. Maybe, as an American, Scott associates wars with far-off, little-known lands. True in recent times for the US maybe, but certainly no…

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/163 "We live in violent times, an era of heightened warfare, genocide and senseless crime. Or so we've come to believe. Pinker charts a history of violence from Biblical times through the present, and says modern society has a little less to feel guilty about.".. i'd bet better communication between peoples does reduce violence.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#19

Post by DanielBMarkham »

SuperThread wrote: post #14
DanielBMarkham wrote: post #4

I love Scott, but this shows a fundamental lack of understanding for why wars happen. The American Civil War comes to mind as the first counterexample. There are dozens more. Nations don't resort to armed conflict because the citizens don't know each other that well. In fact, the counterexamples are very interesting -- I'm thinking of German presence in Great Britain before WWII. People demonize citizens of other nat…

I think that you have to distinguish between wars in which the outcome is uncertain—that is, wars in which real risk to both sides is present—and wars that are essentially a big guy beating up a little guy. I agree that the former kind of war would happen with the same frequency if this pen pal idea were implemented—the motivation for such wars need to be large enough to overcome the personal danger that they produce…

I must admit finding it hard to make the distinction you suggest.

Would the American Civil War be a big guy beating up on a little guy? After all, the North was ten times as populous, and many, many times as rich. Nobody on either side thought the war would last very long.

How about the Romans and the Germanic tribes? Nobody in their right mind thought those Barbarians could stand up against the full might of the Roman Empire very long.

Wars are fought until one side decides to stop fighting. This means that "big guy/little guy" wars and "outcome is uncertain" wars don't seem to be that different. In fact the determining factor would seem to be how easy it is for one side to quit. But how would you know how much it would take to make the other side stop fighting until it actually happens? From the history I've seen, when both sides are very intimate with each other's language and culture -- that's when some of the deadliest, nastiest conflicts take place.

Re: Scott Adams: Connect citizens all over the world with a pen pal website to prevent new wars

#20

Post by wumi »

pc wrote: post #2

The underlying assumption -- that social connections will act as a barrier to war -- seems pretty flawed. Extensive connections didn't prevent any of the European wars between, say, 1700 and 1945. A country is more likely to have an internal war than one with any given outside nation. Maybe, as an American, Scott associates wars with far-off, little-known lands. True in recent times for the US maybe, but certainly no…

most Americans do associate war with far-off, little-known lands.

Probably because we're not too good at geography, and we're a little isolated by two small bodies of water.

Also, since the US has been an aggressor in going to war, stopping the US , or at least slowing down the US war machine is probably a good idea

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