The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings • Hacker News Board

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#101

Post by tome » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:42 PM UTC

s_q_b wrote: post #28

arethuza wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone thinks the UK doesn't have an agenda in the Middle East separate to that of the US then you might want to consider the Al-Yamamah arms deal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Yamamah_arms_deal NB - of course the UK does a lot that aligns with US interests, but they aren't identical.

Yes, the United States and Great Britain have similar, but not identical interests in the Middle East. Their intelligence operatives are almost preternaturally good (or at least seem that way due to their extremely precise knowledge of the Middle East.) And unlike American intelligence officers, they have a much smaller risk of "going native." American officers are rotated every few years to prevent this effect, whil…

> unlike American intelligence officers, they have a much smaller risk of "going native."

That's interesting. Why's that?

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#102

Post by matt_wulfeck » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:54 PM UTC

s_q_b wrote: post #28

arethuza wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone thinks the UK doesn't have an agenda in the Middle East separate to that of the US then you might want to consider the Al-Yamamah arms deal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Yamamah_arms_deal NB - of course the UK does a lot that aligns with US interests, but they aren't identical.

Yes, the United States and Great Britain have similar, but not identical interests in the Middle East. Their intelligence operatives are almost preternaturally good (or at least seem that way due to their extremely precise knowledge of the Middle East.) And unlike American intelligence officers, they have a much smaller risk of "going native." American officers are rotated every few years to prevent this effect, whil…

Your comments are very interesting. It's clear to me you have a unique perspective on this topic. I hope you don't mind me asking some follow up questions.

What does "going native" mean in the context of the intelligence community? Why is it you think British don't have this issue? Why is it harder for the US?

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#103

Post by maze-le » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:01 PM UTC

cmurf wrote: post #75

maze-le wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But in the broader geopolitical sense, it really does make sense to have at least one close ally in that region. What about Israel, Turkey, Egypt?

Really? You think their moral positions are significantly better than Saudi Arabia? And they have essentially zero to offer economically? Their governments aren't any more sane or stable, in the enduring sense, than Saudi Arabia.

This was not a moral judgement, I simply questioned the claim, that Saudi Arabia is the only influential US-ally in the middle east.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#104

Post by jeffcoat » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:20 PM UTC

FrojoS wrote: post #53

I have a stupid question that is a bit more general than the Saudi case. What's the advantage of selling oil and the using the dollars to buy treasuries or other conservative investment assets? Wouldn't it make much more sense for a country like Saudi Arabia to limit their oil production and finance their deficit of the sales directly instead of using royalties? This assumes that the value of oil will rather rise ove…

Not so stupid: Start with the phrase "Hoteling's rule" for a century of academic analysis of that question.

If you own an oil field, you have to balance a number of factors:

* How is the price of oil changing, relative to overall inflation? You mentioned this one.

But also,

* Are technological improvements (either increasing the total amount of extractable oil in the world, or outright oil replacements) going to dramatically lower the price if I wait too long?

* Is it still going to be my oil next year, or am I going to be first against the wall when the next revolution comes?

My (unsophisticated, outsider) opinion is that if you see oil-producing countries selling as quickly as they can, that's weak evidence that they're worried about the last two bullets.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#105

Post by njloof » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:29 PM UTC

s_q_b wrote: post #92

jonstokes wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few years ago I read a good book on the collapse of the USSR (can't remember the title, too lazy to go back and find it right now). One of the major factors that the author identified was glasnost ("transparency"), which I'm old enough to remember being talked about on the news at the time. Basically, his thesis was that it was the transparency, after a generation of buildup of really nasty official secrets, that u…

There is a theory that Perestroika and Glasnost were responsible for the collapse of the Soviet Union, but to me that seems unlikely. The Soviet Union was bound to collapse, because it's mandate, by definition, was limitless expansion of communism. When the government could no longer coordinate production, Perestroika and Glasnost were last-ditch efforts to bring the Soviet Union more in line with Western norms. Unfo…

> The United States doesn't have that style of federation. Its provinces are held together by a common national identity in voluntary assembly, not a single nation presiding over others by raw force.

Don't say that within earshot of the American South.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#106

Post by tyenl » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:30 PM UTC

logfromblammo wrote: post #39

knodi123 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no reason the U.S. should be allies with the House of Saud. We have almost no aligned interests and very different views on human rights and Wahhabism. Well, in isolation, sure. But in the broader geopolitical sense, it really does make sense to have at least one close ally in that region.

Americans are better aligned with the largely Shi'ite Muslim Persians than with Wahhabbist (Sunni) Muslim Arabs. Note that this has almost nothing to do with relations between the governments of the U.S. and Iran. On the axis of prince to ayatollah, I prefer the ayatollah. On the axis of theocratic absolute monarchy to theocratic constitutional republic, I prefer the republic. Supporting the Shah was a mistake. Suppo…

It is true that U.S. culture is far more aligned with Shia Islam, but it is merely a game of numbers and control. ~80% of muslims are Sunni or some offshoot whereas the remaining percentage consists of Shia and other very small sects. As a result, Sunni is the dominant force in the ME except in Iran and half of Iraq where the Shia population is concentrated. If the goal of the US policy is to exert as much control over the ME, then aligning with Sunni is the clear play.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#107

Post by fyhhvvfddhv » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:40 PM UTC

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #66

api wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The student debt indenture system is the same thing in the microcosm.

Was does the debt force you to do other than hold a job? Heaven forbid. Nobody forced you to take money. If anything it's a coup for politicians who want to push debt forgiveness as one of their platforms. Get everyone into debt and then offer forgiveness for votes.

The economy is circular. The money created through the loan benefits the entire economy, going from hand to hand. you don't consume money or burn them. Then its unfair to burden one group or say one country (like Greece) to have to pay through the nose for the activity that everybody benefits from. This is basic macro-economics. The root cause of debt slavery and financial troubles we have can be solved by separating the creation of money from lending. In a democracy the power to create money should lie with the people not private banks. If the politicians misbehave you can vote then out of office unlike the CEO of Goldman Sachs at al

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#108

Post by ArkyBeagle » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:49 PM UTC

dforrestwilson1 wrote: post #13

s_q_b wrote: post #9

You can see from their reported figures that their U.S. treasury holdings are far too low for a sensible national portfolio. It's a pretty glaring hole, and you know that the money is going somewhere off the balance sheets. The question has always been how much U.S. debt exactly the Saudi's hold. This is an interesting historical anecdote, but it doesn't provide any information about the size of the debt, other than…

Perhaps we should be demanding heads on pikes. This has very real implications for Hillary Clinton's election chances as well. The Clintons have been supporters of the Saudis for some time now and have accepted Saudi government money through the Clinton Foundation. https://www.clintonfoundation.org/contributors?category=%241... http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/05/hillary-clinton-... There is no reason the U.S…

"...We have almost no aligned interests..." So if you buy the story that effectively, T.E. Lawrence installed the House of Saud, then we have the interest of maintaining the Former British Empire. S.A. is also parked on both Mecca and Medina. We also have an interest in an ally, no matter how ... dissonant ... in that spot.

"... and very different views on human rights and Wahhabism..."

With maximum snark - celebrate the cultural diversity. One of the most interesting features of nation-state-dom is that we can smile and ignore all that. Er, right until Wahabbism runs smack up into our Security Industrial Complex.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#109

Post by toyg » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:50 PM UTC

maze-le wrote: post #103

cmurf wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? You think their moral positions are significantly better than Saudi Arabia? And they have essentially zero to offer economically? Their governments aren't any more sane or stable, in the enduring sense, than Saudi Arabia.

This was not a moral judgement, I simply questioned the claim, that Saudi Arabia is the only influential US-ally in the middle east.

Influentially speaking, they are. Israel has zero influence on neighbours except for threats of nuclear war. The Egyptian government is currently seen as illegitimate pretty much everywhere. Turkey leverages its geopolitical position towards Europe and Russia, but Erdogan has few friends left and might well end up like Mubarak in the long run.

For good or bad, the combo of economic and religious power Saudis can swing is pretty unmatched in the region at the moment -- their only counterweight being, potentially, an Iranian state with smart people at the wheel for more than a few token years.

Re: The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s U.S. Treasury Holdings

#110

Post by alanwatts » Tue, May 31, 2016, 7:51 PM UTC

hackuser wrote: post #96

cloudjacker wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IMF primarily. Yes the US takes part in that, but the organization is the IMF. The IMF partially realizes their role in this, but its more of an outcome than a conspiracy. They've commented on that book in an interesting non-denial, basically saying that the GDP of the countries they've helped/subjected-in-a-giant-conspiracy is so low and such a small fraction of the IMF budget that it doesn't make sense that the…

> Yes the US takes part in that, but the organization is the IMF. To be clear: The IMF and World Bank are primarily controlled by the Western powers. EDIT: And are seen as tools of Western power by many.

The current US Secretary of the Treasury is the most influential member of the IMF, with 16.66% of the total voting power (Jacob Lew) [1]. He was promoted to his current posts shortly after banking on the 2008 economic collapse with Citi.

[1]https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspx#3