Moving Forward on Basic Income • Hacker News Board

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#301

Post by SolarNet » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:14 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #28

siphor wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's 5 years. Outlined in the link below https://blog.ycombinator.com/basic-income

So in other words, a long enough time to make people think they can draw reasonable conclusions about the viability of BI, when in actuality it's not long enough. You have to study the generational effects of this sort of thing. People are going to behave very differently when they know this will be around for a very short time versus the rest of their lives, nevermind how people behave when they're second or third g…

The Nairobi study is working on that thankfully.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#302

Post by dota_fanatic » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:14 PM UTC

DawkinsGawd wrote: post #180

gshulegaard wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This really isn't a good riddle. First, Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCT) work better than most people expect ( http://www.economist.com/news/international/21588385-giving-... ). As noted in the article, UCTs work surprisingly well in scenarios where lack of capital is the primary problem. A UBI (at least as usually is discussed in the US) is a de-scaling UCT. Second, most proponents of a UBI see it as more efficien…

You completely side stepped the question. I find it absolutely amazing how naive BI supporters are. I grew up poor in a ghetto in New York. Studied, went to university, became an engineer and am no longer in that socioeconomic bracket. However it is very apparent that the people in my current bracket (the one's that support BI), have no idea about the issues of the poor. Poor people are mostly poor because of the dec…

Assholes aside, since turning an asshole into a non-asshole is an incredibly complex issue, people I've known who are like the ones you're describing tend to not like their situation, dream about and periodically pursue having a better life, but are utterly incapable of making a chain of steps towards that better life when it's so much harder to climb than it is to stay down in the ditch. The level of competitiveness in our world also means there's many people above them who have it in their interest to keep them down and dependent (as their livelihoods depend on it).

One would hope with a lessened burden and greater freedom for the millions of Americans who aren't like that, social support and community would increase. MOOCs and the like would get more support. More people would pursue experimentation. More people people would do it right instead of getting shit done. More people would be free to stop giving themselves to processes they know are unethical.

These people you're describing are only a problem to kill off / suck dry in the world we live in now. In a world of basic income, they'd at least have a chance of getting help from the people around them that do care, have a well-developed sense of empathy. Having said all this, I totally agree that giving a lump sum of money to the people you're describing is indeed a terrible idea, will have bad outcomes.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#303

Post by ricardobeat » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:15 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #132

xienze wrote: post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

The problem with most BI solutions is they just want to hand out money but not change how its used and where. There is certainly sufficient technology to track and even restrict the usage of BI funds. So my idea is this, your restrictions on your BI lift as your income does to the point its just flat out money the ends up in your account. You could put forth some requirement that to receive BI you agree to have that…

You don't get to decide what food or drinks other people can have. That's the whole point of a basic income - unconditional baseline support. Yes, many will fuck up and waste the money, but a majority is given peace of mind and leeway to improve their lives in ways not possible without it.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#304

Post by davemel37 » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:15 PM UTC

gist wrote: post #250

davemel37 wrote: post #228

If you are really serious about Basic Income, I strongly encourage you to look at the Kollel system within the ultra-orthodox/yeshiva communities (i.e. Lakewood, NJ) While their model is conditional, the framework for providing a stipend to cover basic necessities so the kollel members are free to study, is very similar. You will see a glimpse of what happens. There is amazing achievement, and there is abuse of the s…

However that is a small community geographically so I wonder how that would work on a larger more anonymous basis without the social pressures that certainly in Lakewood.

There are hundreds, if not thousands of Kollels throughout the world that work in much the same way.

I think what we see in those communities is that peoples true nature is the driving force (almost) regardless of circumstances or financial needs.

The social pressure is a fair point, but I am not entirely convinced that social pressure wont exist on a broader, more anonymous basis too.

Most social pressure is internal, not external (i.e. we tell ourselves that we are expected to conform, but in reality, that might not be true.) Not to say social pressure isn't reflective of the external norms, or that people aren't judgmental, but ultimately, someone getting Basic Income will likely feel their own social pressure, real or imagined, regardless of how anonymous it is. (IMHO)

Ultimately though, the Kollel system is a good place to start and study if Basic Income is being considered seriously, as they have 30-50 years of history and data.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#305

Post by greedo » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:16 PM UTC

orthecreedence wrote: post #277

clavalle wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>what will happen when basic income inevitably raises the overall price of basic stuff because now "everyone can afford it"? That is the kind of question that experimentation like this sets out to answer. There are a lot of theories. My personal theory is that, in general, stuff is not going to get more expensive because of basic income. Providers know that people have more money to spend but there is also still comp…

I thought this about landlords as well, but landlords are also subject to the same economic rules. Many landlords are just trying to cover the payments on the their property + a little extra. If the landlord has BI as well as the renter, then the baseline doesn't really move at all. The landlord doesn't have to charge more to cover expenses because they get BI too. That's the theory, anyway. I really have been on the…

That's not how economics works! If the landlord can charge more for rent, they will. Look at how college tuition skyrocketed as schools became awash in student loan money. Do they need to raise rents? Possible, depending on how inflation hits there costs. But if they can, and the market will bear the cost, they will. That's how pricing of all goods works.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#306

Post by runako » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:17 PM UTC

simplify wrote: post #286

runako wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I posted a comment with a link to a NYT article that mentions subsidizing jobs. I do wonder though -- if the government subsidizes jobs by $X/hr, what incentive is there for companies to not just reduce their contribution by the same amount (so the net to the employee is the same)?

I think you could solve that by increasing minimum wage at the same time. That would also make min. wage increases more palatable.

I'm no economist, but I would imagine the effect of doing so would phase out quite rapidly for jobs above the currently-prevailing minimum wage.

So while a $10/hr job might not be able to become a $7/hr job, I would expect that jobs at e.g. $20/hr would automatically become jobs at $17/hr in an environment of a $3/hr subsidy.

But I admit I haven't spent a ton of time thinking about this and am probably missing something.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#307

Post by rtkwe » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:17 PM UTC

psadri wrote: post #19

Would a basic income simply cause a rise in the cost of living (housing, food, etc...) and therefore nullify its intended effect?

There's arguments on both sides of that. The truth is that economics are rough guesses at best and the only way to know if demand will outstrip supply leading to price increases or if supply will increase enough to make up a lot of the difference is to try and see what happens.

What's actually likely to happen is that some places supply won't increase as much because of external limits (a la zoning in SF or space in NYC) and other places the supply will increase enough that there will be only small effects. On top of that it's hard to guess how much more mobile people will be if they have a guarantee of income if they move to the midwest from a big city where their BI will go much further, which would blunt the demand increase in big cities.

It's a huge mess of interdependent factors and effects.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#308

Post by awt » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:18 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

You need to rely on your friends, your family, and the people in your community that you have helped out in the past.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#309

Post by greedo » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #230

One interesting thing with UBI is that all startups will suddenly be ramen-profitable from the very beginning :) Will we see an explosion of startups?

Yes, because rockstar coders are willing to work for $10k (or whatever the BI fans are touting today), plus vague stock promises...

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#310

Post by Fomite » Tue, May 31, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

Does YCombinator have an Institutional Review Board?

Musing about this study, it feels like it could very much run aground with some of the ethical concerns regarding consent that have dogged some studies with high participation incentives, in that withdrawing from the study potentially represents a financial catastrophe, so participation in the study becomes less than fully consenting.