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Housing in the Bay Area

blog.samaltman.com

381–390 of 407 posts

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happens all the time (#2), it's literally happening to me right now. Look at the map of Ellis and Owner Move-In evictions in SF. Thousands of people are being displaced.

154 Ellis Act evictions last year. I know its sucks but I wouldn't say it happens all the time http://sfist.com/2016/03/29/report_evictions_continue_to_inc...

And combined with owner-move in evictions you get to 2 evictions every day. Which some would qualify as 'all the time'.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think NYC is already there. It's so easy to find a tech job in NYC. Maybe it's even easier in SV, but I've never missed not being in SV. There's such a variety here. Plenty of startups, all the tech giants, and plenty of tech/IT jobs at "regular" companies, consulting opportunities, etc... And it's not _just_ tech -- plenty of other industries are headquartered in NYC. By contrast I can't think of any other industr…

so I've lived in both. The size of the campuses in Silicon Valley literally cannot fit in NYC. No comparison. Its fantastic that Google bought a block of Manhattan for 1 billion dollars, but Google's Mountain View campus is ALL of Mountain View. These are sprawling districts that cannot fit inside of a skyscraper. The next fundamental difference is the variety of VCs. NYC cannot replicate this, and there is nothing e…

"These are sprawling districts that cannot fit inside of a skyscraper."

Is that a definite? I mean, most of Mountain View and its tech campuses are sprawling suburbia (e.g. vast fields of asphalt and grass with a building sprinkled here and there). It's amazing what can fit in a well-designed commercial district.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#383

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The cost of living is definitely infinitely higher than living in the midwest but you certainly can find fields and forests (and actual mountains!) in the SF area. For example, the minute you cross the Golden Gate bridge, you are in Marin County, a county with a rich agricultural history, amazing natural places like Muir Woods (the setting for the ape's home in the latest Planet of the Apes), and 85.5% of it's land p…

^ this is true. I was born and raised in south bay area and went to school in Berkeley. The Bay Area is an ecological treasure trove. But over the years I've seen the hills dotted with houses, untouched swamp land (great for the local wildlife) turned into generic commercial offices, and roads developed deeper into the outskirts. Noise and air pollution is getting worse. Parking and congestion is a nightmare anywhere…

The people who have generally opposed dense new housing in the bay seem not to realize that their actions destroy open space and wildlife. It's not like people who can't afford to live in Mountain View are going to kill themselves. They'll just live farther, and farther, and farther out, in hideously damaging single family homes with lawns that gulp water and houses that guzzle electricity to stay cool.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#385
post #360
post #189

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If it made economic sense for them to create job centers outside of the Bay Area, they would. This gives one an idea of just how great the economic advantage of locating in the Bay Area is.

Or just an idea of how the herd mentality can so utterly overwhelm common sense.

Businesses using a "herd mentality" will be out-competed by those which are profit-maximizers

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so I've lived in both. The size of the campuses in Silicon Valley literally cannot fit in NYC. No comparison. Its fantastic that Google bought a block of Manhattan for 1 billion dollars, but Google's Mountain View campus is ALL of Mountain View. These are sprawling districts that cannot fit inside of a skyscraper. The next fundamental difference is the variety of VCs. NYC cannot replicate this, and there is nothing e…

"These are sprawling districts that cannot fit inside of a skyscraper." Is that a definite? I mean, most of Mountain View and its tech campuses are sprawling suburbia (e.g. vast fields of asphalt and grass with a building sprinkled here and there). It's amazing what can fit in a well-designed commercial district.

That got me curious and I think you might be onto something:

Google employs 19,000 people in Mountain View currently

The Twin Towers in NYC each held 25,000 people on a daily basis.

Two buildings in NYC could accommodate the populations of two tech giants that sprawl across entire south bay towns. So several of NYC's average sized and planned skyscrapers could do a fine job. And there is room every direction away from Midtown Manhattan to replicate new robust building clusters.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#387

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You're right, you can't have anything like that in SF. (Well, there are some pretty nice forests nearby.) You also can't have any of the culture and city life that a major city like SF has. You see easily 10x as many people in a day in SF than you see all week in a semi-rural town in the Midwest. There's 10 cafes within a 10 minute walk. The nightlife is extensive and amazing. The restaurant scene, world class. And t…

I don't think the nightlife is extensive and amazing in san francisco. Everything closes @9pm and there is nowhere to go!

Um, bars close at 2am? I am hard pressed to think of anywhere, even a restaurant that closes at 9pm.

Certainly "extensive and amazing" is open to debate (can't hold a candle to NYC for example)... but objectively there are vastly more options than a small midwestern city.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#388
post #321

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First, you are looking at the wrong time scale. Second, population growth is not the same as demand. In just a few years SF has experienced a massive surge in demand, i.e. the price new residents are willing to pay for housing.

Well of course population growth isn't the same as demand, that's the point! What davidw was observing was that there's plenty of cities that do better at satisfying the demand for housing than San Francisco does. You can have a growing population in the same area while demand goes down, if you're building enough new housing to offset the demand. The examples davidw and I have been citing here show cities that have f…

> cities that have faced similar population growth

You've simply ignored my point about the rate of growth in demand. That introduces a new factor, which is the need to control displacement of lower-income people and maintain healthy economic diversity.

Also, the issue here is not that SF is opposed to density. SF has many high-density neighborhoods and virtually all new construction is higher density. The issue is how hard the city should negotiate with developers to set aside price-controlled units to maintain economic diversity.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 2% chance today, right? Increasing the supply of affordable housing should improve those odds. What's at stake here is how much affordable housing the city for negotiate for with developers. Critics argue this state bill undercuts the city's negotiating position.

Doesn't the bill only apply to developments with at least 10% onsite affordable housing? Is the city really going to negotiate a higher amount than that?

It allows for as little as 5%. Some in the city are fighting for more. For example Jane Kim, the SF supervisor who Bernie Sanders just endorsed for state senate, is fighting for 25% (down from 30%).[1]

Basically this state bill is a developer move to undercut SF's negotiating position, as they have more political influence at the state level.

[1] http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201...

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#390
post #365
post #363

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"Sadly, Marin County is "the boss-level kingdom of California NIMBYs" Cross the bridge, take a left, and drive out to the national seashore. Have lunch in Pt. Reyes. Drive back out to the 101 through the Nicasio horse country. Thank you, thank you, Marin County NIMBYs. Thank you.

I don't think most housing advocates want to pave over parks and things like that, but want to add some options where there is already a town . Also, as kind of an aside, Marin NIMBY's pretty much killed mountain biking in its birthplace, which I also find sad.

Ironically the NIMBY's actions do result in massive loss of wild land, but in someone else's backyard.
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