Media's Obsession with Trump Not Supported by Data

I wonder if Trump fans don't read things on the Internet as much.

I feel like you're working from a broken model.

Trump is the head, and the other candidates are the long tail.

You said: "It's true that Trump got more pageviews overall, but that seems to be mostly because way more articles were written about him in the first place."

And: "we suggest that if publishers would have written more articles about Clinton, they would have received more page views, because in the data we observe posts on Clinton receive more page views on average"

This seems to be the wrong conclusion because of diminishing returns. Writing more articles about Clinton should still push down the average page views. There is only so much interest, and only so much new to write about every day. None of the candidates can create fresh new controversies to feed the media the way Trump can. The question is how much would that push it down? I don't think it would be inaccurate to suggest, based on that these sites exist in a market, that it would push it down significantly below Trump.

I don't believe a base that strong exists per article, where any article is guaranteed to get some absolute number of page views. If diminishing returns aren't present or are extremely weak, then I'm wrong.

If anything, the data doesn't rule out that sites/reporters are correctly maximizing Trump coverage. Or they may not be maximizing enough since absolute demand is so high and Trump generates so much fresh content. If you can write about one easy topic, and maintain an average that high with only a small decrease in the average, you are doing more with less.

My point is that the difference between 9900 and 10200 is not particularly substantial. It's better summarized as "similar" than "fewer".

The differences with the other 2 are larger, but still not yuuge.

> He's a self interested huckster.

You are describing candidates for office in general. Sanders may be an outlier, but the only one.

You bring up a good point. Journalists should explore to what extent there are diminishing returns to writing articles on other candidates. Statistics tells us that the most efficient way of exploring this hypothesis is with a multi-armed bandit algorithm. But before I go into that, I think it makes sense to break this problem down into two questions:

(1) Given equally interesting ideas for articles to write on each candidate, which candidate should a journalist write on?

(2) How much investment is required to write an interesting article on each candidate? It might require less work to write something interesting on Trump than on Clinton.

The right way of answering question (1) is with a dynamic multi-armed bandit algorithm. Such an algorithm dynamically explores the problem of diminishing returns. At this point, given the data we have, such an algorithm would suggest you should write on Clinton the vast majority of the time if you're interested in page views per article, and would suggest you write about Sanders if you're interested in bringing in external referrals from facebook and google. If journalists followed the advice of such an algorithm and wrote so many articles on Clinton that readers started to lose interest, then the algorithm would begin to suggest you write on someone else. If there's enough interest in this article, I might write up a follow-up where I fit a model that tells journalists what topic to write on, given that they it's just as easy to write an article on each topic. I could update this model every once in a while to make sure it detects those diminishing returns in time.

Question (2) is more difficult to answer and requires more domain knowledge. I would say it is possible at any moment to write hundreds of interesting articles on each candidate---the real question is how much work it takes. As I mention in the blog post, I am convinced that journalists find it easier to write interesting articles about Trump. So in some sense it's rational for them to do so: the 'return on investment' is higher because it's so cheap to churn out another article on Trump's latest soundbite. However, one could also argue that -- in the name of increased page views, or in the name of a functioning democracy -- they should make the extra effort to write an interesting article on the other candidates.