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Housing in the Bay Area

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Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#291

Post by ccarter84 »

grappler wrote: post #210
jevinskie wrote: post #160

There is so much pressure, career-wise, to move to either the Bay Area, the West Coast in general, or a major urban hub. I honestly like living in a semi-rural part of the Midwest. I like seeing fields and forests while driving to work. If I want to get out to some wilderness, I can do so in 15-30 minutes. I travel in a car that, I feel, offers me freedom. To boot, I have a nice, reserved spot in the garage below my…

I have intelligence and programming ability, and a desire to further my career. I want a good high paying job in the epicenter of my chosen industry. I do not want to move to a city where I can't afford to buy a good home within walking distance of my workplace. The world should provide this for me.

Well put. You forgot to add that you'd also like a pony and an unlimited supply of Häagen-Dazs.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#292

Post by 187235235 »

calbear81 wrote: post #224
jevinskie wrote: post #160

There is so much pressure, career-wise, to move to either the Bay Area, the West Coast in general, or a major urban hub. I honestly like living in a semi-rural part of the Midwest. I like seeing fields and forests while driving to work. If I want to get out to some wilderness, I can do so in 15-30 minutes. I travel in a car that, I feel, offers me freedom. To boot, I have a nice, reserved spot in the garage below my…

The cost of living is definitely infinitely higher than living in the midwest but you certainly can find fields and forests (and actual mountains!) in the SF area. For example, the minute you cross the Golden Gate bridge, you are in Marin County, a county with a rich agricultural history, amazing natural places like Muir Woods (the setting for the ape's home in the latest Planet of the Apes), and 85.5% of it's land p…

> amazing restaurants

I prefer having friends over and cooking. Restaurants are too impersonal. It is often hard to hear, and they can't be that intimate in nature as you are out in public. There is nothing like eating the meal of a friend or cooking for a friend.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#293

Post by youngButEager »

BurningFrog wrote: post #252
bagels wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the actual building they live in gets demolished to build another building. Or because the new building next door is filled with 'luxury' $5000/mo rents, which might drive the rent up in their building.

> because the new building next door is filled with 'luxury' $5000/mo rents, which might drive the rent up in their building. This is such a stupid myth. On par with "vaccinations cause autism" or Bigfoot. Science has studied how price depends on supply and demand very thoroughly. Increased supply always leads to lower prices.

Here a scenario that can illuminate the unavoidable fact of supply and demand.

- A building owner doubles his rents from $3000/month to $6000/month. What happens? Everyone moves out. The high price eliminated Demand for that building.

ANALYSIS: When the owner tried to jack up his rents too high, it created an excess supply of $6000/month units and not enough demand. What will happen to that owner? ANSWER: go out of business or increase Demand by lowering his asking rent. CRUX: owners only have 'pricing power' matching the strength of demand, they cannot just start 'greedily' raising rents.

Now assume Zynga opens up shop in the neighborhood. Does demand increase for apartments? YES. There are hundreds of new renters.

Building owners see they get 20 applications now for a vacancy instead of 5. They raise their asking rents to $3100 and people pay it due to lack of Supply of units.

The owners cannot raise the rent unless Demand increases. But in San Francisco, which has become much more of a Tech hub over the past 20 years, Demand for apartments has increased. Supply hasn't kept up.

INCREASE IN DEMAND = more applications for a vacant unit = HIGHER RENT because lack of supply means renters have few choices.

Okay, now assume Zynga goes out of business.

Does demand DEcrease for apartments in the neighborhood? YES. There are hundreds of fewer renters.

Building owners see they get 5 applications now for a vacancy instead of 20. If they keep the rents at $3100 there is now an excess supply of expensive units. They must lower their asking rents or wait longer to fill a vacancy and lose money on an unrented unit.

I own/operate rental properties. Supply and Demand is alive and well in the apartments realm on the Peninsula.

During the worst parts of the recsssion we had 20% vacancy (normally it's between 3% to 5%).

Demand for apartments dropped precipitously. Did we lower our rents? We had to. We entered a 'race to the bottom' competition with other rental property owners.

THERE WAS AN EXCESS SUPPLY OF APARTMENTS in the 2008-09 recession. Rents dropped.

Right now there is a lack of supply of units because Demand rose as the job market got healthy.

Rents are higher.

When Demand drops in the next few years in the next recession (due to layoffs, tech firms folding, etc.), will my firm have to lower our asking rents?

OH BABY. Yes indeed. It hurts too.

The argument 'Supply and Demand don't apply to housing' is patently false.

During a recession, there's lower Demand for units (fewer people working; living in parent's basement or leave the area). RENTS DROP.

During a healthy job market, there's higher demand for apartments (more people working -- move out of parent's basement; and new people get hired locally and move to the area). RENTS INCREASE.

The argument that 'everyone must have an apartment in San Francisco, regardless, if they want one' is BOGUS. If you cannot afford to live there, that's YOUR FAULT. Not the city's fault. Not Zynga's fault. YOUR FAULT.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#294

Post by abalone »

threatofrain wrote: post #274
abalone wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your premise that the tech community is not a major player in local politics because of their relatively small body count does not hold water. Money plays a large influence in local politics. Ron Conway is a perfect example of this: he dines with the mayor and provides major funding to local campaigns and initiatives, which usually win.

So you're saying that tech has been a major political player with respect to housing laws? If anything, restrictions on housing supply hurt tech companies who wish to import workers to their area. Restrictions on housing supply hurts everyone who isn't a landowner. If you're saying that a few tech elites are players in politics, fine, but that has nothing to do with the rest of the world who aren't elites. It's almos…

> restrictions on housing supply hurt tech companies who wish to import workers

That may be true, but a city needs more than just tech workers to function. The goal is balanced growth.

> Restrictions on housing supply hurts everyone who isn't a landowner.

Objectively false. Affordable housing requirements help lower income people.

> whatever tech elites are doing, they don't look like they're winning the battle to up supply on housing

You mean up the supply of market-rate housing. Most critics are not anti-growth, they just want more affordable housing.

And as for displacing workers from other industries who can't afford market rate, it's not us vs. them. The "industries" you're talking about are intertwined: tech, restaurants, cafes, schools, police, nursing, art, and so on. If a city doesn't grow in a balanced way and pushes all those other people out it could make it an undesirable place to live. Already we are seeing big increases in restaurant prices due to cost of living.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#295

Post by calbear81 »

danjayh wrote: post #264
calbear81 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost of living is definitely infinitely higher than living in the midwest but you certainly can find fields and forests (and actual mountains!) in the SF area. For example, the minute you cross the Golden Gate bridge, you are in Marin County, a county with a rich agricultural history, amazing natural places like Muir Woods (the setting for the ape's home in the latest Planet of the Apes), and 85.5% of it's land p…

If you're ever back in Michigan, you should visit the west side ... and also check out lake Michigan. Grand Rapids isn't as big as Detroit, but our economy is growing at a healthy clip and there's a lot of interesting things going on here.

Actually, I was at ArtPrize this past year. The western coast is beautiful, I got a chance to go to Sleeping Bear and up into the U.P. as well. I'm definitely going to head back there to do some biking.

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#296

Post by [deleted] »

youngButEager wrote: post #293
BurningFrog wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because the new building next door is filled with 'luxury' $5000/mo rents, which might drive the rent up in their building. This is such a stupid myth. On par with "vaccinations cause autism" or Bigfoot. Science has studied how price depends on supply and demand very thoroughly. Increased supply always leads to lower prices.

Here a scenario that can illuminate the unavoidable fact of supply and demand. - A building owner doubles his rents from $3000/month to $6000/month. What happens? Everyone moves out. The high price eliminated Demand for that building. ANALYSIS: When the owner tried to jack up his rents too high, it created an excess supply of $6000/month units and not enough demand. What will happen to that owner? ANSWER: go out of b…

[deleted]

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#297

Post by ccarter84 »

scythe wrote: post #134
carapace wrote: post #65

I'm in favor of how "building in the Bay Area is approved by discretion", I call it having some power over what gets built. "Democracy" y'know? I'm from SF. I grew up here. I'm also a computer nerd. To me, the tech "industry" has been ruining the city I love since the Dot-Com boom. To me, they are an invading army culturally speaking. In a very real sense my home is being destroyed. The saddest part is, this city kin…

>The saddest part is, this city kinda sucks. It's not even a good place to locate a business. San Francisco is the second-densest city in the country, and is one of only a few cities (and the only city in the West) that had a large urban core designed in the pre-car era, which means that its infrastructure is already designed to accomodate dense urban development moreso than any other American city west of Chicago. C…

"is one of only a few cities (and the only city in the West) that had a large urban core designed in the pre-car era, which means that its infrastructure is already designed to accomodate dense urban development moreso than any other American city west of Chicago"

.... Yea, maybe. But muni's average speed is 8 mph. For a city that is 7 miles across that's pretty sad.

(Slightly dated article:http://m.sfweekly.com/sanfrancisco/the-muni-death-spiral/Con... )

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#298

Post by abalone »

yonran wrote: post #262
abalone wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the key question. The article I cited details many limitations on local governments that would seem to limit their ability to demand affordable housing.[1] Bottom line, this bill is massively supported by developers, so take that as a gauge of how much power it gives municipalities. [1] http://48hills.org/2016/05/22/a-terrible-housing-bill-looms-...

You are confused; the 48hills article is referring to a different bill[1] (affordable housing bonus) than the Governor’s budget trailer bill that Sam Altman is referring to[2]. The Governor’s bill requires that localities deterministically and expediently approve projects near transit that provide some low-income housing and comply with local zoning laws. But speaking of the affordable housing bonus, Tim Redmond’s sp…

I guess, thanks, but it looks like exactly the same problem: It sets affordability requirements as low as 5%. See: 65913.3(b)(4)

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#299

Post by surfmike »

abalone wrote: post #260
davidw wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't live in SF, but having spent most of the past 15 years in Europe, which is dense: it's almost completely a supply problem. SF is not really very dense at all for a place with such a high demand for housing. Random place in SF: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.7718267,-122.4388549,3a,75y,... Near where I lived in Padova, which is way smaller than SF, and way, way less well off: https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3…

Apples to oranges. SF has always been more of a boomtown. Neither of the cities you mention have experienced the sudden, massive surge in demand that SF has in recent memory. When you have sudden surges in demand you can't just pin it on supply. You have to think about macroeconomic objectives for the city (i.e. preserving low and mid income housing) as well as how to plan for the long term, like when the boom turns…

When was the last time SF had too much housing? Obviously prices have gone down at times in the past but it's hard to argue there's ever been an oversupply....

Re: Housing in the Bay Area

#300

Post by eloisant »

jevinskie wrote: post #160

There is so much pressure, career-wise, to move to either the Bay Area, the West Coast in general, or a major urban hub. I honestly like living in a semi-rural part of the Midwest. I like seeing fields and forests while driving to work. If I want to get out to some wilderness, I can do so in 15-30 minutes. I travel in a car that, I feel, offers me freedom. To boot, I have a nice, reserved spot in the garage below my…

I agree.

I think we would make our industry better not by trying to fix Bay Area housing, but by decentralizing it.

That typically means companies should stop forcing their new hires to move to SF/Bay Area, and VC should stop forcing companies they fund to move there too. Same goes with London/Paris for Europe.

I used to live in SV but now I'm in a medium-to-big French city. I'm 20 minutes bike/light rail from downtown but I still live in a house with a garden. I'm also at 5 minutes bike from the forest or shops.

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