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Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

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Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#21

Post by someguydave »

THIEL: "one other way of interpreting the AI boom is that on the surface, it is about extreme optimism about the potentialities of computer technology, and the beneath the surface, it is simultaneously, perhaps, a great deal of pessimism around the possibilities in other technologies that will be developed by humans, and deep pessimism about the possibility of what humans can do."

This is what I think about whenever I hear folks scaremongering about the "singularity". In my opinion these beliefs reflect a kind of spiritual emptiness; a yearning for answers that only God can fulfill.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#22

Post by falsestprophet »

aaron695 wrote: post #16
w1ntermute wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The average IQ is only 100 You do realize that's a tautology, right? There's no reason productivity couldn't be increased, and one potential method would be to boost human intelligence.

Some say China is working on this issue with selective breeding etc. You could at increasing IQ in very poor countries where lack of basic micronutrients is causing IQ issues. But I think better group intelligence, using current intelligence in poor countries better, AI, productivity increase with better tools currently makes much more sense.

Is there large scale government directed selective breeding in China?

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#23

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

[deleted]

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#24

Post by akbar501 »

brbsix wrote: post #18
antisthenes wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the hardest, but also the most pressing issues is regarding population growth. Should we artificially limit population growth? Can it be done in a way that isn't forceful, but perhaps with the right incentives? Should humanity, as a global society push for quality over quantity in reproduction? Is basic income still feasible in this scenario? It's an ethical and ideological mess and frankly, it'll require some…

Should humanity, as a global society push for quality over quantity in reproduction? Is basic income still feasible in this scenario? This is an unpopular suggestion but simply ending the massive state-sponsored subsidization and propagandization of the opposite (e.g. glorification of single motherhood, third-world immigration) would be a great place to start.

Serious question. Is immigration subsidized? If so, how?

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#26

Post by deciplex »

falsestprophet wrote: post #22
aaron695 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some say China is working on this issue with selective breeding etc. You could at increasing IQ in very poor countries where lack of basic micronutrients is causing IQ issues. But I think better group intelligence, using current intelligence in poor countries better, AI, productivity increase with better tools currently makes much more sense.

Is there large scale government directed selective breeding in China?

No, but some, like aaron695, say there is.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#27

Post by agumonkey »

Animats wrote: post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

What about progress in education, so that everybody can enjoy understanding beautiful things like abstract geometry, sophisticated harmony, functional relationships, waves ...

Naturally society polarize intelligence instead of spreading it so we classify instead of nurturing.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#28

Post by kriro »

Very interesting talk. I'd love for him to write a history of capitalism type book. "The History of Innovation and Globalization". Start it off with the x-axis=globalization and y-axis=innovation model and go from say 18th century to now. I always enjoy history of economics books. I like the mainstream books but really enjoyed the perspective and research that went into "An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought". I am not aware of any good history type books from a more pragmatic business oriented point of view. Thiel has some interesting insights and perspectives.

Unfortunately that book probably wouldn't be a good use of his time but come on Peter, I know you want to write it :)

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#29

Post by simula67 »

Animats wrote: post #12
antisthenes wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the hardest, but also the most pressing issues is regarding population growth. Should we artificially limit population growth? Can it be done in a way that isn't forceful, but perhaps with the right incentives? Should humanity, as a global society push for quality over quantity in reproduction? Is basic income still feasible in this scenario? It's an ethical and ideological mess and frankly, it'll require some…

For Europe and Japan, population is in decline. US population would be in decline if it were not for immigration. China is expected to max out around 2026. (The one-child policy worked.) India, though, has real problems.[1] Two big problems we expected to have were overpopulation and running out of energy. Neither happened. [1] http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/04/05/indias-population-in...

Overpopulation is a real problem for India. The population growth is falling, but not fast enough

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#30

Post by ricksplat »

LionessLover wrote: post #20
Animats wrote: post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

The average IQ will always be 100. It will also always be perfectly normally distributed. Because it's designed that way. http://www.michna.com/iq.htm > In truth the IQ is a purely statistical measure. It has no direct relation to brain performance, is not proportional to it, and doesn't even have any linear or otherwise straightforward relation to it. The only thing you can say is that somebody with a higher IQ will…

> The average IQ will always be 100

Except (and this counters GP post also):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect

Our IQs are steadily increasing. Or so it appears ...

With equivalent tests to those administered a few years ago scores are steadily increasing. It's not necessarily that we're getting smarter of course - far more likely to be the case that these tests become the "definition" of intelligence and our children are more specifically trained for them.

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