Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#151

Post by marvin » Mon, May 23, 2016, 1:50 PM UTC

kamjam wrote: post #123

mantas wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if you want a car for hobbies (e.g. getting to backcountry) or transporting your kids around, you shouldn't live in an urban area?

When I was living in Montreal for a couple of years I signed up to a community car share scheme. No insurance, no maintenance, no road taxes so it worked out cheaper to "rent a car" just when I needed it: https://www.communauto.com/index_en.html With a good, cheap, reliable public transport system with this as backup I could easily get rid of my car if I lived in an urban area but still needed to get around at the we…

We have a system like this in my hometown, Bergen. I live 50 meters away from two parking garages containing four share cars each. I can reserve any of these at any time via a web app, given that no one have reserved them already.

Payment is $10 per usage plus a surcharge per kilometer driven. Key management is handled either with an electronic card key which checks the current reservation status, or key drop boxes to which all members have access. It's both cheaper and more convenient than owning a car, since I only use a car once per week on average.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#152

Post by devy » Mon, May 23, 2016, 1:52 PM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #140

The reality here in second-tier Chinese cities is that most people already get around, if not always then at least often, by electric vehicle. They've either never had cars, have bought cars but have problems parking them or getting anywhere due to traffic (many cities were not designed for cars, and now have millions of them clogging every available space on and off the road network), or just jump on the back of bla…

True statement. Having been visiting China annually for the past 10 years and seeing the transportation transition from mopeds to E-bikes first hand, I can attest to that. And the price has really been going down significantly because of the mass production and economy of scale (exports are a major contribution). Typically e-bikes with traditional car batteries are starting at around 2000 RMB. Some newer ones with Li-ion batteries are priced slightly higher.

However, e-bikes are seeing a decline and/or full ban in top-tier Chinese cities due to new traffic regulations and new road design. It is still the predominant transportation tool in 2nd-tier and small cities where public transportation is scarce and downtown areas are smaller.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#153

Post by emptyfile » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:01 PM UTC

ebbv wrote: post #58

gnicholas wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers should absolutely consider whether we are on a sustainable growth curve. How common will electric charging stations be if it turns out that EVs can't rise above 10% of the total car market? If hydrogen-powered cars all of a sudden became the norm, EV drivers will be much less well-served than if EV sales continue to scale (as most EV purchasers probably assume they will).

> How common will electric charging stations be if it turns out that EVs can't rise above 10% of the total car market? One of the beauties of EVs is you don't need charging stations. I leased a Nissan LEAF 2 years ago, and it almost only gets charged at home. You can't really know whether EVs are going to take over or not, it depends on too many factors. If our government gets bamboozled with Hydrogen the way they di…

>One of the beauties of EVs is you don't need charging stations >Your car refuels while it's parked in your garage.

So not only do you need to own a charging station you also need a house and a garage, got it.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#154

Post by devy » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:03 PM UTC

pcr0 wrote: post #18

I'm all for electric vehicles, but there are a few things that have bothered me about its mass adoption. Right now, electrics comprise a tiny part of the automobile market share. Yet Tesla is already running into supply issues, particularly with lithium as there are only 3 companies in the world that do industrial-scale lithium mining, that too in a handful of mines around the world. Secondly, I suppose we're current…

    > particularly with lithium as there are only 3 companies in the world that do industrial-scale lithium mining, that too in a handful of mines around the world.

It appears that there are more than 3 lithium mining companies[1]. Care to provide your source to prove otherwise?

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_as_an_investment

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#155

Post by superuser2 » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:07 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #82

superuser2 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* The parking lots will get 2 or 3 charging stations per 1000 spaces, like many parking garages in SF currently.

Charging stations is the wrong word. The charging part is already embedded in the car. All you need is a 240 volt socket.

Nope. "Charging station" is widely accepted to mean the socket, its associated parking space, the control/payment electronics, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_station

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#156

Post by todd8 » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:39 PM UTC

ebbv wrote: post #40

dghughes wrote: post #28

Forget the batteries look at the cost of replacing aluminum quarter panel which is welded on. For the Model S it's supposedly $15,000+ just for the part then fixed at a Tesla approved bodyshop. That's nuts! I did the math and for comparison on a $3 million Enzo Ferrari a hood (couldn't find a quarter panel) unpainted and used is about $10,000. http://www.ferrparts.com/en/usd/diagrams/front-hood-and-open... I like ele…

You're talking about a $60k+ (realistically probably more like $80k) vehicle. Aluminum body panels for luxury cars in that class have long been similarly priced. If you bought an all aluminum Audi A8 in 1999 for a similar price, you'd be in a similar situation. If you balk at that kind of repair bill, you shouldn't be considering a car in that price range. Your comparison of the used Ferrari hood is hardly applicable…

> In reality, Tesla is doing you a favor by making their body panels so expensive because that means it's easier for your car to get declared a total write off

How is that a good thing? Does that mean that it would be even better if a paint scratch meant the car had to be replaced? This replacement is not free in the long run, insurance companies are not charities and someone is paying for the delight owner's receiving a new car instead of having it repaired.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#157

Post by Godel_unicode » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:48 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #141

pcr0 wrote: post #18

I'm all for electric vehicles, but there are a few things that have bothered me about its mass adoption. Right now, electrics comprise a tiny part of the automobile market share. Yet Tesla is already running into supply issues, particularly with lithium as there are only 3 companies in the world that do industrial-scale lithium mining, that too in a handful of mines around the world. Secondly, I suppose we're current…

Wild bet: Musk is planning on spatial extraction to provide itself lithium.

In case you missed this a few years back (not musk, but his peers):

http://www.planetaryresources.com/

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#158

Post by Spooky23 » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:50 PM UTC

IanCal wrote: post #74

Spooky23 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few: - Road trips. Range needs to accommodate the 95th percentile trip, not the mean. - Apartment living - Unknown depreciation curve The other inconvenient fact is that you need to drive a lot for the TCO of an electric car to be lower than a similar gasoline car.

Median daily distance is actually close to about 30 miles in the US. I'd be surprised if the 95th percentile (equating to more than once per month) wasn't already within the range of a Tesla, though the report doesn't have that figure. https://www.aaafoundation.org/american-driving-survey-year-o...

I travel regularly to NYC from Albany (about 150 miles). Many other people do as well, based on the NYC->ALB traffic you see on weekend evenings.

It's a trip that is definitely in the range of a Tesla from a point A to point B point of view -- but you end up with lots of overhead. Did I fully charge before the trip? Will I do a side trip? Will I drive around when I get there?

The electric car adds a lot of complication, and doesn't really solve any problem right now.

Its similar to the decision process of common carrier vs. car for any moderate/long range trip.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#159

Post by brrt » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:52 PM UTC

ebbv wrote: post #147

ams6110 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is where we should be heading IMHO. Synthetic petroleum fuels that are carbon-neutral. This lets us keep using the existing infrastructure for transporting and retail sale of fuel, lets people keep using their current cars to maximize that value. Saves the absolutely massive investment that would be necessary to upgrade electical generation and delivery infrastructure to power a large fleet of EVs.

No, it absolutely is not. Of all the ideas of how to power transportation in the future this is one of the worst. First, the idea that it is carbon neutral is absurdly wrong. If you're pulling the carbon out of anywhere but the atmosphere (and you are), then it's no more carbon neutral than pumping oil out of the ground and burning that. Second, it's hugely inefficient. If you're manufacturing fully synthetic petrole…

I agree fully, synfuels are a hugely naive idea. However, I've been pondering the use of direct-ethanol fuel cells in the place of 'range extenders' that are currently on some EVs. Advantages are legion: ethanol has a ready (and in possibly sustainable) supply chain, ethanol is a liquid with comparable-if-low vapor pressure as gasoline, i.e. readily handled, ethanol is not hugely poisonous like methanol, has quite decent energy density, etc. Fuel cell conversion is acceptably efficient (compared to ICE anyway), so not that much fuel would be needed; most consumers would prefer to charge at home anyway, for cost reasons. The fuel cell would be used to back-up the battery, therefore it wouldn't have to be really large - it only needs to provide the mean load, not the peak load. And you'd never have 'range anxiety' again...

Disadvantages?

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#160

Post by ptaipale » Mon, May 23, 2016, 2:54 PM UTC

garrettheaver wrote: post #104

ptaipale wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it is entirely fair. You can fill gas or diesel up at a station quite quickly. To charge batteries so that you can use the car, you really need a charging station available every night or day.

I don't really agree I'm sorry to say. It kinda makes assumptions about charge rates, charge locations (home, work, car parks) or even the means by which cars are "refilled". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY

To avoid making assumptions, I'm thinking of the cars that you can get right now. I live in northern Europe where the "charging stations" are actually abundant (in the form of electric feeds to parking places, currently needed for the convenience and benefits of engine block and cabin heaters in the winter) but charging an electric vehicle still takes quite some time.

But if we allow for technical development, then both electric and gasoline/diesel/lpg cars will also move ahead.