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Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

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Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#141
post #18

I'm all for electric vehicles, but there are a few things that have bothered me about its mass adoption. Right now, electrics comprise a tiny part of the automobile market share. Yet Tesla is already running into supply issues, particularly with lithium as there are only 3 companies in the world that do industrial-scale lithium mining, that too in a handful of mines around the world. Secondly, I suppose we're current…

Wild bet: Musk is planning on spatial extraction to provide itself lithium.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a real problem and a real concern. An EV essentially is a car with a very expensive fuel tank (the battery), made out of specific materials and properties. While it is efficient in energy use and can make use of fungible electricity, lithium is rare, limited to specific areas of concentration, and can (as any material) only be partially recycled. There's lithium elsewhere on Earth, or more precisely, in seawa…

The saudi oil minister said that if everyone in the world had as many cars as the US, then they wouldn't have enough oil. So that's a very aggressive yardstick you're setting for EVs. It would be much more sensible to electrify the cars/busses/trucks/delivery vans that are driven a lot, that are driven in stop-start traffic, and that are driven in heavily populated areas first. That gives you much more bang-per-buck…

There are a lot of things which fail to scale to an Earth-of-Americas. And some pretty good reasons to think that's generally not possible.

Pointing out which specific subcases remain impossible doesn't disprove the larger case.

There's a good question as to how scalable EV's are generally. Present scale is minuscule. A small feaction of a percent in the US, and that actually fell in 2015. I'm not sure what 2016 and future trends (based on pre-orders) look like.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a real problem and a real concern. An EV essentially is a car with a very expensive fuel tank (the battery), made out of specific materials and properties. While it is efficient in energy use and can make use of fungible electricity, lithium is rare, limited to specific areas of concentration, and can (as any material) only be partially recycled. There's lithium elsewhere on Earth, or more precisely, in seawa…

The saudi oil minister said that if everyone in the world had as many cars as the US, then they wouldn't have enough oil. So that's a very aggressive yardstick you're setting for EVs. It would be much more sensible to electrify the cars/busses/trucks/delivery vans that are driven a lot, that are driven in stop-start traffic, and that are driven in heavily populated areas first. That gives you much more bang-per-buck…

I'm really looking forward seeing big cities adopting EV for buses and cabs. In London the black cabs are noticeably more smelly than regular cars, and buses are... well buses.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#144
post #63
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most hydrogen-powered cars are electric cars. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_vehicle (listing upcoming hydrogen vehicles, all using fuel cells). And that's actually the point of switching cars to electricity: we have many sustainable ways of making electricity, and zero ways of sustainably making gasoline. Get cars running on electricity, then continue building out the infrastructure.

>zero ways of sustainably making gasoline This is untrue, actually. You can depolymerise virtually anything carbon-based into oil. It's currently more expensive than digging it out of the ground, but we'll never run out of oil. What's more, assuming the carbon in the feed stock originally came from the atmosphere, burning the resulting product is carbon-neutral. Something to think about, given the unbeatable energy d…

This is where we should be heading IMHO. Synthetic petroleum fuels that are carbon-neutral. This lets us keep using the existing infrastructure for transporting and retail sale of fuel, lets people keep using their current cars to maximize that value. Saves the absolutely massive investment that would be necessary to upgrade electical generation and delivery infrastructure to power a large fleet of EVs.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#145

The reality here in second-tier Chinese cities is that most people already get around, if not always then at least often, by electric vehicle. They've either never had cars, have bought cars but have problems parking them or getting anywhere due to traffic (many cities were not designed for cars, and now have millions of them clogging every available space on and off the road network), or just jump on the back of bla…

I went last month for a road trip in Cuba, where most of the bikes seem to be AVA1000. This electric scooter is everywhere: http://cubanclassics.blogspot.fr/2015/02/2014-unison-interna....

It was quite an shock for me to go back to Paris and realize how much my neighborhood is polluted by toxic fumes and deafening engine back-fire.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#146
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about a $60k+ (realistically probably more like $80k) vehicle. Aluminum body panels for luxury cars in that class have long been similarly priced. If you bought an all aluminum Audi A8 in 1999 for a similar price, you'd be in a similar situation. If you balk at that kind of repair bill, you shouldn't be considering a car in that price range. Your comparison of the used Ferrari hood is hardly applicable…

> In reality, Tesla is doing you a favor by making their body panels so expensive because that means it's easier for your car to get declared a total write off in an accident and you can get a new car I think the chance of getting new value for your totalled car is pretty slim, unless it was written off in the first year or you're paying extra for GAP insurance. My car got written off by an insurance company last yea…

If your car gets hit to the point where you have to replace body panels it's not as mechanically sound any more as you might think. Only weird, edge case accidents can result in a body panel being destroyed to the point of replacement where the actual structure of the car hasn't been bent or warped in ways that will permanently alter the handling and behavior of the car.

As for being green; when you write off a car it's not like it just gets buried in the ground whole. It gets parted out and the parts all get sold. It's actually quite green. :P

Your insurance will give you replacement value for the car that was destroyed. No that's not original MSRP but it's what the destroyed car is worth. If you're really intent on repairing it, you usually use that money to buy the written off car from whoever the insurance company ends up selling it to (usually whatever mechanic or storage place the totaled vehicle is physically located) and then pay to have it repaired. If the total of that procedure is higher than what the insurance company gave you, then it's a bad idea to do that. :)

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#147
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>zero ways of sustainably making gasoline This is untrue, actually. You can depolymerise virtually anything carbon-based into oil. It's currently more expensive than digging it out of the ground, but we'll never run out of oil. What's more, assuming the carbon in the feed stock originally came from the atmosphere, burning the resulting product is carbon-neutral. Something to think about, given the unbeatable energy d…

This is where we should be heading IMHO. Synthetic petroleum fuels that are carbon-neutral. This lets us keep using the existing infrastructure for transporting and retail sale of fuel, lets people keep using their current cars to maximize that value. Saves the absolutely massive investment that would be necessary to upgrade electical generation and delivery infrastructure to power a large fleet of EVs.

No, it absolutely is not. Of all the ideas of how to power transportation in the future this is one of the worst.

First, the idea that it is carbon neutral is absurdly wrong. If you're pulling the carbon out of anywhere but the atmosphere (and you are), then it's no more carbon neutral than pumping oil out of the ground and burning that.

Second, it's hugely inefficient. If you're manufacturing fully synthetic petroleum, then that synthetic petroleum is acting like an energy storage medium, a liquid battery, rather than as a true fuel (a source where you're getting more energy out than you put in.)

Any kind of battery source which has to be physically moved around via other sources of transportation is hugely inefficient compared to EVs with actual batteries where the energy merely has to be sent down transmission lines and the like. The losses involved in moving electricity around are far, far less than moving synthetic petroleum or hydrogen or any other "pseudo battery".

Lastly, internal combustion engines are extremely inefficient themselves, especially compared with electric motors. They require tremendous upkeep and have energy losses that are three times that of EVs. So even if you could make the claim (which you can't) that your synthetic petroleum energy storage medium is 100% as efficient as moving power around, the ICE is going to result in needing to use up 3x as much energy to move your vehicle from Point A to Point B compared to an EV.

Synthetic petroleum is a really, really bad idea and should not be pursued.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#148
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a real problem and a real concern. An EV essentially is a car with a very expensive fuel tank (the battery), made out of specific materials and properties. While it is efficient in energy use and can make use of fungible electricity, lithium is rare, limited to specific areas of concentration, and can (as any material) only be partially recycled. There's lithium elsewhere on Earth, or more precisely, in seawa…

> arguably the ultimate definition of cost is energy requirements No, it's not. The ultimate causes for costs are human labor and taxes (including similar concepts like rent or license fees) – everything else derives from that. You're not paying the Sun for its energy output, but the workers that mine the materials, process them, and build solar panels.

I didn't say conventionally, I said arguably.

Solar flux is a given, and isn't modifiable by human activity. But the flux reaching Earth is limited, and in the sense of that which you give up -- opportunity costs -- there's only so much of it available. Stored solar flux -- as biofuels, wind, hydro, or fossil fuels -- represents an exergic potential (value) with an eMergic cost.

Economic prices fail to consider that emergic cost entirely, but in a very real sense it's an account balance being depleted. Environmental sinks also have costs associated with clearing and negative impacts.

Howard and Eugene Odum, ecologists, coined the term emergy and discuss it. There's a fair literature concerning it in ecology, though little or none in economics. I believe economics is in error here.

Again, very much not mainstrem econ. You'll find treatment in ecological, biophysical, and thermoeconomics however: Georgescu-Roegen, Daly, Hall, and Costanza, among others.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-10-06/energy-ecology-...

(By Howard Odum's daughter.)

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what proportion of houses have off road parking in your own garage. Also think what does this do to the Electricity Grid if a non trivial amount of EV's are put on charge every night.

Overnight demand is substantially less than daytime - last night's demand in the UK was about 20% lower: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php The grid would prefer a another demand curve, so overnight charging is helpful.

Is that going to be the same when say 15%-20% of the nation plugs in a car every evening - its going to the surge when people go to make a cup of tea when the adverts are on during coronation street look tame.

Re: Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries

#150
post #18

I'm all for electric vehicles, but there are a few things that have bothered me about its mass adoption. Right now, electrics comprise a tiny part of the automobile market share. Yet Tesla is already running into supply issues, particularly with lithium as there are only 3 companies in the world that do industrial-scale lithium mining, that too in a handful of mines around the world. Secondly, I suppose we're current…

Mineral extraction of non-renewable resources is a funny thing - when demand moves up, eventually supplies will drop, and prices rise. Then people either find a way to extract energy from a different mineral, or build better technology to remove it from rock, and prices go back down. The drop in oil and gas prices over the last few years being a perfect example of this, as it is due to new drilling techniques.

When the current lull in oil prices ends, electricity will take its place. And we will start the same cycle for batteries that we have lived through over the past 100 years with oil -- either technology will bring out more lithium, or research will move us to use a different fuel source.

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